Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We’re heading into Week 12 of the regular season. Over the offseason, I did an “NFL Splits” series, looking at historical trends to help predict the outlook of the 2022 season. I will be continuing the series during the season by using the FTN Splits Tool and looking at actionable takeaways from the previous weeks.
The Splits Tool allows me to experiment with different situations, such as active/inactive players, spreads, locations, and more, to get a better understanding of the rest of the season. Users can sign up for an FTN Fantasy subscription and gain access to all the tools needed to dominate their fantasy leagues.
Fly Eagles Fly
The Eagles entered the 2022 season lacking depth at wide receiver despite drafting one in the first round in back-to-back drafts. General manager Howie Roseman has had a successful run in Philadelphia; however, selecting Jalen Reagor over Justin Jefferson will go down as one of the biggest draft-day misses. Rather than drafting a first-round receiver for a third straight year, the Eagles traded that pick and a 2022 third for A.J. Brown. The trade came as a shock considering the Titans had won their division in both seasons with Brown and were one year removed from holding the best record in the AFC in 2021. Fourteen weeks into the 2022 season, Philadelphia has the one seed in the NFC with a league-best 11-1 record.
Sunday, Brown had the ultimate revenge game against the Titans, catching eight passes for 119 yards and two touchdowns. To put a cherry on top, Titans general manager Jon Robinson, who had pulled the trigger on the Brown trade, was fired Tuesday. Since acquiring Brown, the Eagles have transformed their offense and have become legitimate Super Bowl contenders. In this article, I’m going to look at how Brown’s arrival in Philly has impacted the passing offense from a season ago.
Jalen Hurts, QB
Jalen Hurts showed promise in his rookie season in 2020 after stepping in for a struggling Carson Wentz. In his first full season as a starter in 2021, Hurts threw for 3,144 yards and 16 touchdowns and led all quarterbacks in rushing attempts (139), rushing yards (784) and rushing touchdowns (10). Adding A.J. Brown has significantly elevated Hurts’ numbers as a passer but has not taken away from his “Konami Code” rushing upside. He’s averaging less than one rush yard per game (-0.56) while scoring rushing touchdowns at a higher rate (+0.12). Hurts is currently leading all quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns for a second straight year and is the QB2 in fantasy trailing only Patrick Mahomes.
DeVonta Smith, WR
The Eagles had their eyes set on DeVonta Smith in the 2021 draft and traded up two spots to select the Heisman winner with the 10th overall pick. Smith needed no time developing chemistry with Hurts, considering the two had already played together for two seasons at Alabama (2017-2018). As a rookie, Smith operated as the Eagles’ WR1 from Day 1, catching 64 passes for 916 yards and five touchdowns on 104 targets. He commanded a team-high 21% target share and passed 2008 DeSean Jackson for the most receiving yards by a rookie in franchise history. Since adding A.J. Brown, Smith has moved down the pecking order but has seen an uptick in production across the board. Although he is no longer the No. 1 option in Philly, the increase in pass volume and softer coverage has helped bolster his numbers.
Dallas Goedert, TE
Dallas Goedert was a popular breakout candidate last offseason, with rumors suggesting Zach Ertz could be on the move. However, Ertz remained on the roster for the first six games before getting traded to the Arizona Cardinals. Goedert’s numbers from last season are a bit skewed, considering he played five out of sixteen games with Ertz. Although A.J. Brown commands more targets and has a larger target share than Ertz, Goedert’s receiving production has improved while operating as the clear TE1 in the offense. Unfortunately, Goedert has missed the last three games with a shoulder injury after being placed on the injured reserve list. He is already ruled out for Week 14 but is expected to return in the first week of the fantasy playoffs.
