NFL Splits Tool, Week 12: Bucs Get a Star Back

Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to evaluate different teams, monitoring some of the most critical situations around the league.

The Splits Tool is a great way to evaluate the impact of different situations and environmental factors by comparing and contrasting historical data based on pre-game spreads/totals, locations, coaching changes, current and former teammates, etc. It’s a must-have for serious fantasy football managers and sports betters, especially when it comes to making difficult start/sit decisions or trying to gain an edge against the books.

Mike Evans Returns

The Buccaneers get some much-needed reinforcements coming out of the bye, finally getting Mike Evans back in the lineup. He hasn’t played since Week 7, missing the last three games with a hamstring injury, but he should be a full go come Sunday.

Evans is currently 665 receiving yards short from 1,000, needing to go on a historic run to extend his 11-season streak. Without Evans and Chris Godwin, no Bucs wide receiver has separated from the pack, with most of the targets funneling between Cade Otton and Rachaad White.

Cade Otton, TE

Cade Otton has been dominant without Evans and Chris Godwin, completely taking over as Baker Mayfield’s No. 1 and leading the team across the board in route participation rate (94.7%), target share (25.4%) and air yard share (19.1%). He’s been as steady as it gets at the tight end position, averaging 7.3 receptions on 9.7 targets for 64.3 yards and a score. Although his volume will likely take a hit with Evans back, he should fall no lower than the second target on the team, locked in as a weekly starter with top-five upside.

Rachaad White, RB

Rachaad White has been the clear No. 2 behind Cade Otton over the last three games, running a route on just under 60% of Baker Mayfield’s dropbacks (59.6%), averaging 4.7 receptions on 5.3 targets for 31 yards and 0.7 receiving touchdowns. He has a 14% target share without Evans and Godwin, but his role as a rusher has dropped off significantly, continuing to lose work to Bucky Irving. Any sort of reduction for White as a receiver with Evans back in the mix could be detrimental to his rest-of-season outlook.