Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to evaluate different teams, monitoring some of the most critical situations around the league.
The Splits Tool is a great way to evaluate the impact of different situations and environmental factors by comparing and contrasting historical data based on pre-game spreads/totals, locations, coaching changes, current and former teammates, etc. It’s a must-have for serious fantasy football managers and sports betters, especially when it comes to making difficult start/sit decisions or trying to gain an edge against the books.
No Tee for Cincinnati
The Bengals fell behind the eight-ball early, losing four of their first five games, but have turned things around over the last month, winning three out of the last four games. They’re still below .500 on the season (4-5) and will need some luck to make the postseason, but they have hope entering Thursday night. A win against the Ravens would go a long way for Cincinnati, but that’s easier said than done, especially without Tee Higgins, who has led the team with a 26% target share and 38.3% air yard share when active. In games without Higgins, the passing offense has almost entirely condensed around Ja’Marr Chase and Mike Gesicki, who have a 36.5% and 39.8% air yard share, respectively, without their running mate.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR
Ja’Marr Chase has seen an uptick in targets (+0.85) and receptions (+0.7) without Higgins, but his overall receiving production takes a significant hit across the board averaging less than 50 yards (48.5) a game. He’s finished as a top-30 wide receiver just once without Higgins, failing to find the end zone in three out of four games.
Mike Gesicki, TE
Mike Gesicki has been the main beneficiary of Higgins’ absence. He’s coming off his best game of the season last week, catching five passes on six targets for 100 yards and two touchdowns. In four games without Higgins, Gesicki is averaging 6.8 targets, 5.5 receptions and 70.5 receiving yards, seeing an 18.1% target share during that span, trailing only Chase. With Higgins active, Gesicki was much more of a rotational player, trailing both Erick All Jr. (48.1%) and Drew Sample (47.1%) in snap share (37.7%) in Weeks 3-7. He may be harder to trust once Higgins is back, but with All now out for the rest of the season, Gesicki could still be a viable streaming option depending on the usage and matchup.
