Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
With most of the significant offseason movements in the rear-view mirror, it’s time to look forward to the upcoming league year and start preparing for our 2023 fantasy football drafts. In this series, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams and players in the past. The Splits Tool allows you to experiment with a wide variety of inputs such as active/inactive players, spreads, locations, and much more to help you gain a better understanding of the cause and effect of different scenarios. Sign up for an FTN Fantasy subscription for full access to the tool, which will continue to update throughout the season.
No team exceeded expectations more than the Seahawks last season, led by Comeback Player of the Year Geno Smith. In his full season as the starter since 2014, Smith threw for a career-high 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns, completing a league-high 69.8% of his passes. He was exceptional on the deep ball, leading the NFL in PFF passing grade (99.2) and touchdowns (15) on passes that traveled 20 or more yards down the field. With the air-raid clicking on all cylinders, Seattle shied away from their run-heavy tendencies, posting a +1.5 pass rate over expectation, 3.5% higher than their final season with Russell Wilson. Although Smith started three games in 2021, it was clear Seattle was much more willing to open up the offense with the departure of Wilson. In this article I’m going to use the splits tool to quantify the impact of quarterback play on the top two receiving options, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
DK Metcalf, WR
DK Metcalf cracked the 1,000-yard receiving barrier last season for just the second time, catching a career-high 90 passes for 1,048 yards and six touchdowns. With Geno Smith under center, Metcalf saw a lot more volume, leading to a greater output of receptions and receiving yards. However, his six touchdowns in 2022 were a career-low and the first time he’s failed to log double-digit scores since his rookie season. That number should regress in 2023 considering Metcalf led the NFL in end zone targets (22), accounting for 40.3% of Seattle’s targets inside the red zone.
Tyler Lockett, WR
Few players have been as consistent as Tyler Lockett, who eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in 2022 for a fourth consecutive season, trailing only Mike Evans for the longest active streak. In 2022, Lockett saw 117 passes come his way, recording 84 receptions for 1,033 yards and a team-high nine touchdowns. His receiving yards and touchdowns took a slight hit without Russell Wilson, but the overall uptick in passing volume led to more targets and receptions. Although there will be added competition next season, with the addition of first-round wide receiver Jaxon-Smith Njigba, Lockett has shown no signs of decline, continuing to produce at an elite level.
