NFL Splits Tool: Deshaun and the Browns

With most of the significant offseason movements in the rear-view mirror, it’s time to look forward to the upcoming league year and start preparing for our 2023 fantasy football drafts. In this series, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams and players in the past. The Splits Tool allows you to experiment with a wide variety of inputs such as active/inactive players, spreads, locations, and much more to help you gain a better understanding of the cause and effect of different scenarios. Sign up for an FTN Fantasy subscription for full access to the tool which will continue to update throughout the season.

Football is finally back! … Well, kind of. We got our first glimpse of NFL action Thursday night, ending in a 21-16 Browns victory over the Jets in the Hall of Fame game. There wasn’t too much to take away from the game considering most of the starters were resting, but it was a good start for Cleveland who are entering a critical 2023 season. After going all in on the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes last offseason, the team struggled once their newly acquired franchise quarterback returned to the lineup, winning just three of their last six games. Watson was visibly rusty from his near-two-year hiatus, posting career-low marks in yards per attempt (6.5), completion percentage (58.2%) and TD rate (4.1). He threw for less than 170 passing yards in 66.67% of his starts, finishing 35th among all qualified signal callers in EPA per dropback (-0.09). Although it’s fair to give Watson a mulligan for his extended absence, the six-game sample size should not be ignored. In this article, I’m going to use the Splits Tool to quantify the impact Watson had on the pass catchers relative to Jacoby Brissett, who started the first 11 games.

Amari Cooper, WR 

Without a clear No. 1 option on the team, Cleveland traded for one last year, acquiring Cowboys wide receiver Amari Cooper. Cooper took no time getting acclimated with his new team, solidifying himself as the alpha and catching a career-high 78 passes for 1,160 receiving yards and nine receiving touchdowns. He also saw 132 targets, matching his career-best mark from 2017, and carved out a 26% target share, a new personal high. With Watson sidelined to start the season, most of his damage came alongside journeyman quarterback Jacoby Brissett, seeing 8.45 targets per game, averaging over 5 receptions (5.18), 72 receiving yards and finding the end zone 7 times in the first 11 games. With Brissett under center, Cooper was on pace to see 142.65 targets for 88.06 grabs and 1,224 receiving yards, to go along with double-digit touchdowns (10.88). His production took a significant hit across the board in the final six games with Watson, logging only one game with more than four catches, and eclipsing 60 receiving yards just twice. He also caught two touchdown passes, but they came in the same game, in a Week 17 matchup against the Commanders. 

Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR 

Donovan Peoples-Jones quietly experienced a third-year breakout last season, totaling career-highs in targets (96), receptions (61) and receiving yards (839), while matching his career-best mark in receiving touchdowns (3). He was slightly more productive overall with Jacoby Brissett, but the dropoff to Watson was marginal, with an increase in scoring opportunities. Two of Peoples-Jones’ three touchdowns came in the last six games with Watson after he scored just once in Weeks 1-12. Although Peoples-Jones is still the favorite to play alongside Amari Cooper in two-wide sets, the Browns added target competition this offseason, trading their 2023 second-round pick, in exchange for Elijah Moore and the Jets’ third-rounder, which they used to select Tennessee WR Cedric Tillman. Tillman was limited to just six games last season, dealing with an ankle injury, but posted a career year in 2021, catching 64 of 90 passes for 1,081 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. 

David Njoku, TE 

The Browns’ 2017 first-round tight end, David Njoku had not quite lived up to his draft-day billing entering last season, surpassing 500 receiving yards just once, never catching more than 36 passes in a season. That did not stop Cleveland from signing Njoku to a four-year extension last offseason, which at the time was the fourth-biggest contract at the position. Njoku played 14 games in 2022, missing three games due to injury, but totaled career-high marks in targets (80) and receptions (58), recording his second 600-yard season (628). He also finished second on the team in receiving touchdowns, scoring exactly four times for the fourth time in his career. Njoku receiving production took a hit when Deshaun Watson returned from his suspension, however, he was much more utilized in the red zone, catching two touchdowns in five games with his new quarterback. In his last three seasons with the Texans, tight ends accounted for 24% of Watson’s touchdown passes. Njoku also saw an uptick in snaps with Watson, logging a 90%-plus snap share in every game. With Jacoby Brissett under center, Njoku cleared 90% of offensive snaps just twice in nine games. Although it is unlikely to threaten Njoku’s status as the clear TE1 next season, the Browns did sign Jordan Akins in free agency who played three seasons with Watson in Houston 2018-2020.