Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NFL offseason has finally slowed down as teams shift their focus to improving through the draft. From a fantasy perspective, one of the most important positions that receive very little attention is the offensive line group. Yes, offensive linemen don’t do the most important thing for fantasy managers, which is score points. However, 45% of a team’s offense on the field are offensive linemen on nearly every play.
Knowing which offensive line units are strong and weak becomes a gateway to fantasy points that most people overlook. The problem with that is that we don’t know notable offensive linemen unless they are truly elite, or they are making notable mistakes at inopportune times (speaking from experience there).
There is still plenty of time before the first week of the NFL season. The NFL draft (and subsequent free agent moves still to come) will shift and change the outlooks of a lot of teams. However, this is a great point to take stock of the teams that have made a notable effort to improve their offensive line (and also note the teams that haven’t). I won’t have a true offensive line ranking until after the draft, but based on the offseason at this point, these are teams that you can guess will rank higher or lower than they did at the end of the 2021 season.
Most Improved
These are the teams that have done the most to improve their offensive line situation this offseason.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals came into the 2022 offseason off a surprising Super Bowl run. Despite their offensive success, there was one clear area of need for the Bengals if they wanted to repeat or build upon the 2021 season: offensive line. The most common starting offensive line group for Cincinnati in 2021 (from left tackle to right tackle) was Jonah Williams, Quinton Spain, Trey Hopkins, Hakeem Adeniji and Riley Reiff. That group combined to allow 24 sacks, 23 quarterback hits, 76 hurries and 129 pressures, per PFF. Cincinnati went into the offseason with a clear goal of protecting Joe Burrow and nailed it.
This offseason, the Bengals added right guard Alex Cappa from the Buccaneers, guard/center Ted Karras from the Patriots and right tackle La’el Collins after he was cut by Dallas. All three of those players ranked top 20 at their positions according to PFF and represent significant upgrades on the right side of the offensive line. Cappa, Karras and Collins combined to give up just 10 sacks, nine quarterback hits, 41 hurries and 60 pressures last season (Collins only played in 12 games).
Cincinnati could opt to add another interior offensive lineman with the 31st pick in the NFL draft or choose to bank on the development of 2021 second-round pick Jackson Carman or 2020 sixth-rounder Hakeem Adeniji at left guard. Either way, the Bengals have solidified the interior of their offensive line and right tackle, two areas of significant importance with a pocket passer like Joe Burrow in a division like the AFC North.
Miami Dolphins
Miami has approached the 2022 offseason intending to figure out if Tua Tagovailoa is the quarterback of the future by surrounding him with offensive talent. Part of that equation was improving upon an abysmal offensive line from 2021. Miami’s primary starting offensive line (Liam Eichenberg, Austin Jackson, Michael Deiter, Robert Hunt and Jesse Davis) allowed 22 sacks, 29 quarterback hits, 158 hurries and 209 pressures. Both Miami’s passing attack and run game struggled to establish themselves in 2021, leading Miami to focus their offseason on upgrading the left side of the line.
The Dolphins added left guard Connor Williams from Dallas and left tackle Terron Armstead from New Orleans via free agency. Williams played in all 17 games for the Cowboys last season and gave up just one sack, one quarterback hit, 11 hurries and 13 pressures. He will be a solid upgrade on the left side of the line and has the mobility to thrive in Mike McDaniel’s new outside zone rushing attack. Armstead is the gem of the free agency class. He played in only eight games last season due to injuries, but when he’s healthy he’s proven to be one of the best left tackles in the NFL.
In his nine-year NFL career, Armstead has never had a season where he has surrendered more than five sacks or eight quarterback hits. He’s also never given up more than 20 hurries or 25 pressures in a single season. For context, four of Miami’s five offensive linemen gave up at least 26 hurries and 30 pressures last year alone.
Miami won’t have a pick until the third round of the draft this season, which means the Dolphins will likely head into the preseason with Armstead and Williams locked into the left side of the line, Deiter at center, and a combination of Jackson, Hunt and Eichenberg at right guard or right tackle.
The Dolphins were able to add two premier talents to their offensive line this offseason and stand as one of the clear early winners at the position.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh went into 2021 with an offensive line that was almost universally seen as the weakest unit in the league. The Steelers wound up as a middle-of-the-road offensive line but had their struggles across the board. The Steelers’ primary offensive line configuration from left to right was Dan Moore, Kevin Dotson, Kendrick Green, Trai Turner and Chukwuma Okorafor. Only Turner and Okorafor came in with any consistent starting experience, and it showed.
The Steelers starting offensive line allowed 22 sacks, 22 quarterback hits, 73 hurries and 117 pressures. Pittsburgh elected to hope for continued development at the tackle position by Moore and Okorafor and instead focused on solidifying their interior offensive line by adding center Mason Cole and right guard James Daniels. Both Cole and Daniels ranked as top-20 players at their positions according to PFF. Cole was a backup last season but still started seven games for the Vikings, giving up just two sacks, four quarterback hits, 14 hurries and 20 pressures. Daniels on the other hand was a four-year starter in Chicago and is coming off a year where he struggled on the field. Daniels gave up practically as many sacks (3), hurries (33) and pressures (40) in 2021 as he did in his first three years combined (one sack, 37 hurries, 48 pressures). If he can rediscover his early-career form with the Steelers, they’ve added a very quality interior offensive lineman for very little.
Pittsburgh could still opt to add an offensive lineman at pick 20 or pick 52 in the upcoming NFL draft, but at the very least they have already made strides toward reinforcing the middle of their offensive line to provide second-year running back Najee Harris and new quarterback Mitchell Trubisky with help in the offense.
Least Improved
These teams did the least to improve their line situation this offseason, or in some cases made it worse.
Chicago Bears
The Bears may have one of the least talented rosters in the NFL, and no position group proves that more than their offensive line. The Bears took a very middle-of-the-road offensive line from a bad offense in 2021 (30th in passing, 14th in rushing) and subtracted arguably their two most consistent players (Jason Peters at left tackle and James Daniels at right guard). Chicago returns three of their starters from the 2021 season (left guard Cody Whitehair, center Sam Mustipher, right tackle Larry Borom), but that trio allowed 10 sacks, 12 quarterback hits, 71 hurries and 93 pressures. Last year’s second-round pick at left tackle (Teven Jenkins) missed most of the season with a back injury. He played just 160 snaps in 2021 but still gave up two sacks, two quarterback hits, seven hurries and 11 pressures.
The only meaningful addition Chicago made was interior lineman Lucas Patrick from the Green Bay Packers. Patrick played 14 total games for the Packers at center and left guard last season and surrendered just one sack, four hits, 13 hurries and 18 pressures. He could play center or guard in Chicago.
The Bears are in a bad place along the offensive line at the moment, banking on development from two second-year tackles in a pivotal season for Justin Fields’ development. Chicago has three top-100 picks in this year’s draft and plenty of holes to address on the roster. Even if they opt to add multiple second- and third-round talents to this offensive line, it is hard to envision a way for them to come into 2022 as anything but one of the worst offensive line units in the NFL.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have spent the 2022 offseason signaling their willingness to rebuild by trading Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos and releasing veteran linebacker Bobby Wagner. As of this writing, Drew Lock seems to be the favorite to start for Seattle in 2022. Unfortunately for Lock, he may have some problems ahead of him on the offensive line.
The Seahawks allowed their best offensive linemen from 2021, left tackle Duane Brown, to walk in free agency. Brown struggled at times last season, allowing eight sacks, three hits, 22 hurries and 33 pressures, but he was still able to play at a high level and secure the left side of the line. The Seahawks currently have two returning starters along the offensive line in left guard Damien Lewis and right guard Gabe Jackson. Jackson and Lewis combined to give up four sacks, 11 hits, 43 hurries and 58 pressures in 2021 and ranked outside the top 50 guards last season. The Seahawks are seemingly looking to elevate last year’s backup linemen Stone Forsythe and Jake Curhan to left and right tackle, respectively. Curhan struggled throughout the season (four sacks, four hits, 12 hurries and 20 pressures in just 405 snaps) and Forsythe played just 14 snaps.
Seattle did add Chiefs backup interior lineman Austin Blythe during free agency and have four top-100 picks in the upcoming NFL draft to add talent. However, Seattle’s offensive line has been a problem for several years now and there is nothing to suggest 2022 will do anything to break that pattern.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders finished 2021 as a playoff team thanks to a strong defense and a quarterback who produced despite dropping back behind a porous line. After an offseason that saw the Raiders add Davante Adams, it looks like not much has changed.
Left tackle Kolton Miller had a strong year, finishing as PFF’s fifth-ranked tackle while allowing four sacks, five quarterback hits, 25 hurries and 34 pressures. Unfortunately, the rest of the offensive line to his right struggled mightily. Left guard John Simpson, center Andre James, right guard Alex Leatherwood and right tackle Brandon Parker combined to allow 22 sacks, 37 hits, 114 hurries and 172 pressures. The Raiders will get Denzelle Good back at one of the guard positions after he tore his ACL in the first game, but the rest of the line will look very similar. Las Vegas needs Leatherwood to develop into a usable offensive lineman during his second year (whether it is at guard or his college position of right tackle remains to be seen) to try and keep pace in a loaded AFC West.
Unfortunately, the Raiders don’t have a first- or second-round pick after trading them to add Adams to the receiving corps. Las Vegas opted to use the 2022 offseason to add a top-tier wide receiver and lock up some of their existing talent, foregoing the offensive line. Ultimately, the Raiders’ offensive line needs to take a step forward due to the lack of assets they have in the draft. The lack of attention given to a questionable unit during the offseason makes them one of the least improved offensive line groups in the league heading into the preseason.
