NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
It was another wild week for the National Football League. Jonathan Taylor went Super Sayain, leading the Colts to a 26-point victory over the Bills. The Titans snapped their six-game winning streak — which included wins vs. the Bills, Chiefs, Colts and Rams — by losing to the lowly Texans. The Cowboys and the Chiefs failed to hit their Vegas total by approximately 30 points. Every time you think you figure something out this season, the following week flips it on its head.
Unsurprisingly, there were a bunch of unusual DFS winners and losers this week as well. Let’s dive into some of the biggest, along with some of the winning tournament lineups on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Winners
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
This is Taylor’s world, we’re all just living in it. The Colts’ running back has put together a monster season, and he entered Sunday with a league-leading 937 rushing yards and 1,240 yards from scrimmage. He also had 10 total touchdowns and had scored at least 21.2 DraftKings points in six straight games.
While those numbers are great, he took things to another level this week. He had a brutal matchup against the Bills, who ranked first in the league in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA, but Taylor absolutely dominated. He racked up more than 200 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns, finishing with 56.4 DraftKings points. Not only was that the top performance of the week, it was the top performance of the entire season.
The best part for those who rostered Taylor this week was his low ownership. People were scared off by the matchup and enticed by some of the value running backs — more on them later — resulting in average ownership of just 3.1% for Taylor on DraftKings. He was owned in just 3.9% of lineups in the DraftKings $3.5M Fantasy Millionaire, but he was owned in 43.8% of the lineups that finished in the top 1%. That’s the definition of a slate-breaker.
Justin Jefferson (MIN) & Davante Adams (GB)
While Taylor stole the show this week, Justin Jefferson and Davante Adams put on a heck of a performance in Minnesota.
Adams was expected to dominate with Aaron Jones out of the lineup. He averaged close to 40 DraftKings points per game in two previous contests without Jones over the past two seasons, and he did not disappoint against the Vikings. He racked up seven catches for 115 yards and two touchdowns, resulting in 33.5 DraftKings points.
Jefferson was the bigger surprise. He checked in with average ownership of 2.7% on DraftKings, and he absolutely torched the Packers. He racked up more than 100 receiving yards in the first half and ultimately finished with 40.2 DraftKings points.
Only 0.2% of the field used both Adams and Jefferson in the Milly Maker, but that stack undoubtedly won people plenty of money.
Cheap quarterbacks
Taylor, Adams and Jefferson were all pricey in Week 11, so you needed to find some savings elsewhere if you wanted to roster them. Quarterback ended up being the place to do it.
The winning quarterbacks in the top tournaments across the industry? Cam Newton, Tyler Huntley and Joe Flacco. That’s quite a trio.
Newton was easily the best of the bunch — he finished with 26.16 DraftKings points — but saving money at the position was the easiest way to load up your roster with as many high-priced studs as possible. Most of the top lineups this week employed a stars-and-scrubs approach, and the quarterbacks were of the “scrub” variety.
Losers
Fill-in running backs
The theme of the week entering Sunday was value running backs. There were a host of players who figured to see a spike in playing time that were providing value, including A.J. Dillon, Mark Ingram, Jeff Wilson and D’Onta Foreman. Volume is king at the running back position, so cheap running backs with the potential for lots of work are always popular DFS options.
Unfortunately, most of those options disappointed in Week 11.
Dillon and Ingram were fine, but Wilson and Foreman were massive busts. Wilson racked up just 6.8 DraftKings points at approximately 41.6% ownership on DraftKings, while Foreman scored just 5.0.
More importantly, these value running backs kept fantasy owners off players Taylor, Joe Mixon, D’Andre Swift, Nick Chubb and Christian McCaffrey, who each finished with at least 24.9 DraftKings points. Ultimately, getting 15.7 DraftKings points from Dillon at $6,200 doesn’t feel all that disappointing, but it came with a big opportunity cost.
Chiefs-Cowboys
When a game has a Vegas total of around 57.0 points, it’s going to be a priority target for fantasy owners. When that game finishes with just 28 points scored, it leads to a lot of disappointment.
The Chiefs and Cowboys featured some of the highest-owned plays at virtually every position, but very few of those options came through. Patrick Mahomes scored just 9.5 DraftKings points. Dak Prescott had 5.64. CeeDee Lamb had 4.4.
The Chiefs’ studs were a bit better — Travis Kelce had 18.8 DraftKings points, Tyreek Hill had 20.0 — but that wasn’t enough to make either player particularly relevant.
The big winner in this game was Michael Gallup, and that was only because he was so cheap. He was priced at $4,200 on DraftKings, and he scored 9.4 DraftKings points in place of Amari Cooper. Rostering Gallup didn’t help you this week, but it didn’t hurt you much either.
Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
Tee Higgins routinely draws plenty of attention as an underpriced wide receiver, and he routinely disappoints fantasy owners.
He was a popular target again this week, with only Gallup and Adams drawing more ownership at the position across DraftKings tournaments. He finished with just 3.5 DraftKings points, despite the fact that the Bengals’ offense exploded for 32 points. Most of that production came via the running game, which made Higgins and stud teammate Ja’Marr Chase both subpar options.
Winning tournament lineups
NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire
This lineup truly embraced the stars-and-scrubs approach this week, and it resulted in a payout of more than $1M. This lineup started with the combination of Taylor and Jefferson, who were each owned at less than four percent. That meant that very few fantasy lineups had both players, giving this team a massive edge. They finished with 96.6 DraftKings points between the two of them, which is absolutely insane.
They also paid up for Swift in the flex spot and stacked him with the Lions’ defense. The Lions put together a hard-fought effort vs. the Browns, and both players delivered value.
This team also employed a very creative stack with the Panthers and the Football Team. They used Newton — one of the more popular quarterbacks of the week — but paired him with min-priced tight end Tommy Tremble. Tremble didn’t do much this week, but the savings he gave this lineup was massive. Terry McLaurin makes an appearance for the Football Team, and he finished with five catches for 103 yards and a touchdown.
Finally, Elijah Moore was another elite option on Sunday. He could’ve very easily been considered a “winner,” racking up 32.6 DraftKings points at just $4,900. He ended up being the skeleton key that allowed all these studs to ultimately come together.
NFL $2.25M Mega Millionaire
It’s always interesting to compare the winner of the Milly Maker with the winner of the Mega Millionaire. The latter contest features a $4,444 buy-in, so there are obviously a lot less entries to navigate. That means you don’t have to be quite as perfect.
The gap between the winning lineups in these contests was pretty stark this week. Both teams featured Taylor, but he was the only player to make an appearance in both lineups. Taylor was even more contrarian in this contest, checking in with an average ownership of just 2.5%. He ultimately scored more than 30.5% of this team’s total fantasy points.
These squads also both used a punt play at tight end, with Anthony Firkser showing up in this lineup. Firkser ended up being a much stronger option than Tremble, finishing with 13.6 DraftKings points.
This team ended up going even cheaper at quarterback, opting for Tyler Huntley at just $4,100. That allowed this user to squeeze in Taylor, Davante Adams and Dalvin Cook, all of which cost at least $8,200.
The rest of this lineup features a bunch of players in the $5k range. Jeff Wilson wasn’t a killer despite his 6.8 DraftKings points, while Jarvis Landry and Jaylen Waddle both delivered solid games.
$1.7M NFL Sunday Million
If you told me someone was going to win a GPP this week with a naked Joe Flacco lineup, I would’ve called you crazy. Flacco was tied for the third-cheapest starting quarterback salary this week, but he held his own with 17.94 FanDuel points.
This team also used Brandon Aiyuk and Zach Ertz, who combined for 42.8 FanDuel points at just $9,000.
Those three players allowed this lineup to pay up everywhere else, and the rest of the team came through. Taylor, Jefferson, Swift and Mixon all delivered monster games, while McLaurin’s 18.8 FanDuel points was good enough.
