Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The Week 7 main slate is officially in the books. We had some surprising results in the early window, with the Bengals and Titans blowing out the Ravens and Chiefs respectively, but the big favorites dominated in the late window.
There were plenty of noteworthy DFS performances to break down as well. Let’s dive into some of the biggest winners and losers from the Week 7 main slate, as well as some of the winning tournament lineups on DraftKings.
Winners
Ja’Marr Chase
The “Bengals should’ve drafted Penei Sewell over Ja’Marr Chase” crowd has been awfully quiet recently. Chase has made sweet music with his former collegiate quarterback since stepping on a professional football field, and he’s become a massive favorite to take home the Rookie of the Year Award.
He put together another dominant performance in Week 7. He racked up eight catches for 201 yards and a touchdown, which Chase made happen on what should’ve been a minor gain:
Chase ultimately finished with 37.1 DraftKings points at approximately 10% ownership in the Milly Maker, and he’s quickly becoming the type of player who deserves every-week consideration at the position.
The New England Patriots
Raise your hand if you had the Patriots going for 54 points this week. If you raise your hand right now, you’re either clairvoyant or a liar. I’m leaning toward the latter.
The Patriots had a favorable matchup this week vs. the Jets, but their offense hadn’t provided any reasons for optimism to start the year. They broke out in a big way against their division rivals, and virtually everyone got in on the fun. Mac Jones threw for 300+ yards and two touchdowns. Damien Harris, J.J. Taylor and Brandon Bolden combined for five scores. Kendrick Bourne even threw a touchdown! Things got so out of hand that Brian Hoyer even got some playing time.
The fantasy scoring was spread out enough that no one had a truly dominant day, but overall, this was an impressive showing in an otherwise unimpressive season for the Pats.
Big favorites
The Rams, Buccaneers and Cardinals were all favored by around two touchdowns in Week 7, and all three teams provided excellent fantasy value.
The Rams were led by Cooper Kupp, who continues to dominate on a weekly basis. He was the highest-scoring fantasy player once again in Week 7, finishing with 40.6 DKFP thanks to 10 catches, 156 yards and two scores. Matthew Stafford also delivered excellent value at quarterback, while Van Jefferson was a solid punt play.
The Bucs’ offense was also fantastic. Mike Evans finished with three touchdown catches, while Chris Godwin racked up 28.1 DKFP of his own. Leonard Fournette also continued his strong season, rumbling for 81 yards a score.
Finally, the Cardinals’ offense never really hit fifth gear vs. the Texans, but they still rolled to a comfortable 31-5 win. Kyler Murray had three touchdown passes, while James Connor added a score on the ground.
Overall, if you entered the late window with a bunch of PMR, you likely did quite well in Week 7.
Losers
Derrick Henry
The Chiefs focused seemingly all their resources on stopping Derrick Henry this week, and they succeeded in that mission. He finished with just 29 carries for 86 yards, and they also managed to keep him out of the end zone.
That was basically all the Chiefs did right this week — more on them in a minute — but they succeeded in keeping the Big Dog on his leash.
Henry was unsurprisingly one of the highest-owned running backs on the slate, so he disappointed a bunch of fantasy players. I’m sure he’s happy with the win though.
Chiefs offense
What an absolutely disastrous performance from the Chiefs. The total on this game was around 58 points at kickoff, yet the Chiefs managed just three measly points this week. The Titans’ defense is far from a juggernaut, so that’s as surprising a result as we’ve seen all season.
Patrick Mahomes turned in arguably his worst game as a professional, racking up just 206 passing yards with one interception and one fumble, and that trickled down to his pass-catchers. Tyreek Hill finished with just six catches for 49 yards, while Travis Kelce had seven for 65. Byron Pringle ultimately led the team with 75 receiving yards, which helped absolutely no one.
It is definitely a nervous time in Kansas City. The defense is an abomination, and it doesn’t figure to get better anytime soon. Their offense should still keep them competitive most weeks, but when they have a bad performance, things have the potential to turn ugly.
Sam Darnold and Chuba Hubbard
The Sam Darnold renaissance was a nice story for the first three weeks, but he has turned into a pumpkin just in time for Halloween. He turned in another ghastly performance vs. the Giants in Week 7, finishing with 111 passing yards and an interception. Things were so bad that Darnold actually got benched for P.J. Walker in the fourth quarter.
It’s hard for anyone to succeed when the quarterback plays that poorly, which dragged down Chuba Hubbard. He was owned in approximately 20% of DraftKings tournament lineups this week, so that hurt plenty of fantasy players.
Winning tournament lineups
NFL $3.5M FANTASY FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE
I am a big fan of this lineup. They got massive production from the Stafford-Kupp stack and were able to save a bunch of salary by including Jefferson. D’Andre Swift was included on the Lions’ side, and he had an excellent day as a pass-catcher. Overall, that stack provided elite production without breaking the bank at minimal ownership. Just 0.1% of the field used all four players in the Milly Maker contest.
They also managed to save a bunch of salary with Foster Moreau at the absolute minimum. Darren Waller was ultimately inactive, but that information wasn’t official until after the 1 p.m. games had already started. That resulted in minimal ownership, and he ultimately rewarded his fantasy owners with 18.0 DKFP.
The rest of this lineup is full of solid midrange options. Godwin and Harris both did well for their price tags, and Terry McLaurin took advantage of a good matchup vs. a banged-up Packers’ secondary.
NFL $1.25M WILDCAT
There was no second Milly Maker on DraftKings this week, so let’s focus on the Wildcat instead. It features a $333 buy-in, so it’s a nice medium between the Milly Maker and some of the higher-stakes tournaments.
This lineup used a Dolphins triple-stack featuring Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki. Waddle wasn’t a smash at his salary, but Tua and Gesicki more than picked up the slack. The rest of the lineup features a lot of overlap from the previous winning lineup — Kupp, Swift, Harris and Godwin all make repeat appearances — but they replaced Moreau with Hunter Renfrow. Renfrow wasn’t the same value as Moreau when all was said and done, but the thesis of the play was similar. Both players figured to see a bump sans Waller, and both players found themselves in winning tournament lineups on DraftKings.
