NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 8

I wish I could start this article touting which of my entries has the best chance of winning, but this season hasn’t been my best so far. However, it’s still relatively early and going on a big win streak over a few weeks with an entry can really change a few things.

When playing from behind, it becomes even more important to choose more contrarian picks and lines with half points since you aren’t exactly going to zoom up the standings with ties.

Here are a few lines I like this week:

Week 8 Circa Millions Picks

Cleveland Browns +8.5

It’s not fun to continually lose backing the Browns, but they’re likely significantly better with Jameis at quarterback. I’m also generally seeing +8 at sportsbooks, so this is a free half point of line value. Considering the public is hammering the Ravens, it seems the books are staying resolute that the Browns shouldn’t be much more-than-a-TD underdogs. I’ll go ahead and take the opposite side of the public and hope the sportsbooks clean up here.

Houston Texans -5

The Texans were one of the most hyped teams going into the season, and they seem to be living up to expectations and then some. They have the fifth-best DAVE, while the Colts are 23rd. While the Texans and Colts have the same point differential and the Texans have won just one more game than the Colts, I’m going with our betting model and our DAVE, which I think is sniffing out that the Texans are just a significantly superior team compared to the Colts.

Tennessee Titans +11.5

This is ugly, but it’s the sort of pick you need to make when you’re behind in one of these contests. At least the betting model agrees with the pick. But that’s all you really can say about this Titans team that seems to be making the case for adding relegation to the NFL.