Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
After a third-place finish for $375k last year, it looks like I have to admit defeat to a disappointing season in the Circa Millions contest this year. Alas, I’ll power through and still entertain you at least to a few sides I like this week.
Week 18 Circa Millions Picks
Pittsburgh Steelers +2
I seem to be going down with the ship betting on the Steelers. Why stop now? The betting model likes it. The Bengals offense is great, but they really have much of a chance to make the playoffs. The Ravens will almost certainly lock up the AFC North with a win prior to this game, but I have to think the Steelers would prefer to win this game and face the Texans than lose and likley face the Ravens in Baltimore in the first round. The Bengals have a great offense, but their defense is poor enough that Russell Wilson should be able to game manage a small victory.
Las Vegas Raiders +4.5
The public is hammering the Chargers in this one, but I do think the Raiders can pull off an upset. They’re on a two-game winning streak against bad teams, and this young team seems to have some gusto to it. Aidan O’Connell is an OK quarterback and not just third string trash like we’re seeing from some of the other losing teams in the league that have thrown in the towel (cough, Browns). AOC has 240 passing yards or more in three of his past four games, and I think this Raiders team competes like this final game is their Super Bowl.
Denver Broncos -10.5
The Chiefs do not care, and the Broncos have everything to play for in this one. It’s really hard to guesstimate a fair line for contests like these, but I’m not betting on a Patrick Mahomes-less Chiefs team that isn’t trying to win. I’ll lay the points with this Broncos team that has simply defied expectations to the upside this year.
