NFL Circa Millions Picks for Week 14

This late into the NFL season, you can’t just take the obvious picks in a pick ‘em contest like Circa Millions. That’s a way to be fairly successful, sure, but it’s a solid way to finish in the top 20% without even threatening for the title.

No, you need to get creative this time of year. My Week 14 picks reflect that, with some choices that might make you squint but that I think give me a shot at rising to the top.

Week 14 Circa Millions Picks

Cleveland Browns +7

I’m going against our betting model here, because I think we’re witnessing one of the greatest QB comebacks in history with Jameis Winston. Russell Wilson is also impressive, but I do think Jameis will be delivered from multiple pick 6’s in this upcoming game. Seven is also fantastic line value since I’m generally seeing 6.5 at most places.

Dallas Cowboys +6

In another battle of teams with nothing to play for, this Cowboys team has shown it is capable of winning with its Thanksgiving performance. Most sites have the line at 5.5 now, and our betting model even likes the Cowboys there. I think the Cowboys defends keeps this game close enough that they cover.

Los Angeles Rams +3.5

How do I not take a side in the Kromer Bowl when I do a show Sunday morning with my colleague Brooke Kromer? They’re both good teams and this Bills team is scary to fade, so that’s why I’m going with the Rams from a game theory standpoint. It’s late in the season and I need some contrarian picks, preferably ones with half points, to give my teams the possibility to cash. There isn’t much line value either way, but I think the Rams pick is decent and low picked without being just flat-out dumb.