Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We’re back for our weekly look at dynasty moves to make, featuring … Bengals and Browns and Rams, oh my! As a reminder, buying doesn’t mean getting a player for Bishop Sankey and a knockoff Bluey DVD set. Selling doesn’t mean you must rid your rosters of said player for 10 cents on the dollar. When players are improperly valued, take advantage.
Dynasty Moves to Make Now: Buys
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Opportunity knocks when uncertainty surrounds a player, and Tee Higgins is one of my favorite targets with plenty of it. At the time of this writing, Higgins had yet to sign the franchise tender the Bengals placed on him while he seeks a long-term deal. Rumors of trades, holdouts and potential to leave Cincinnati next season have Higgins’ fantasy managers concerned for his future. I do not share their concern.
Higgins will produce for fantasy no matter what happens with his contract situation (outside of a lengthy holdout). If he signs a long-term deal with Cincy? Great. He’ll be the 1B to Ja’Marr Chase’s 1A in one of the premier offenses in the NFL, tied to one of the best young quarterbacks in the league. If he’s traded or signs elsewhere next offseason? Not a problem. Using FTN’s Splits Tool, you can see that Higgins’ stats are virtually identical in games played with and without Chase.
Higgins has proven he has the talent to be the alpha wide receiver on an offense.
No matter what uniform Higgins is wearing in 2024 and beyond, I want him on my fantasy team.
Players I’d be willing to trade for Higgins for 1 for 1: Tank Dell, D’Andre Swift, Jordan Addison
Amari Cooper, WR, Cleveland Browns
Amari Cooper is a peanut butter and jelly sandwich. You’re not excited to draft him. He’s not a sexy pick (strictly for fantasy purposes; he’s a handsome man). You could risk trying the leftover pizza that may or may not have been in the fridge for one too many days. But once you slide that sandwich down your gullet, you realize that occasionally, reliable is the right call.
Cooper has averaged over 14 PPR points per game in five of the past six seasons (He averaged 13.5 in 2021). He’s gone over 1,000 receiving yards in seven of his nine seasons and never had fewer than five touchdowns. There are concerns surrounding his quarterback situation, but they’re unwarranted. Cooper produced with the likes of Ben DiNucci. He’ll either have a healthy Deshaun Watson, who hopefully resembles who we saw in Houston, or Jameis Winston, the new Browns backup who isn’t afraid to sling it.
While Cooper is reliable year-to-year, he’s still boom-bust week-to-week. But Cooper’s a WR2 being valued as a WR#. At age 29, he makes the most sense as a target for a contender. But even if you’re rebuilding, I’d see how cheap he’s going for in hopes of flipping him after one of his patented big games.
Players I’d be willing to trade for Cooper 1 for 1: Keenan Allen, Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
Can a player be considered a post-hype sleeper if the hype never dies? Kyle Pitts was declared the dynasty TE1 while still a Florida Gator. But he’s failed to live up to the lofty expectations Falcons fans and fantasy managers set for him. In 2021, Pitts became just the second rookie tight end to gain over 1,000 receiving yards, the first since Hurricane Ditka in 1961. Pitts has 1,023 receiving yards in the past two seasons combined. He had 1,026 in 2021.
But there is hope — no more noodle-armed warm bodies under center. The list of quarterbacks Pitts has had throwing him the ball in Atlanta is nausea-inducing: The ghost of Matt Ryan, Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke. Gone is neanderthal former head coach Arthur Smith. Tyler Conklin and Tyler Higbee have more targets since Pitts entered the league in 2021. Jonnu Smith tied or out-targeted Pitts in six games last season, including nine red-zone targets to Pitts’ five, and averaged about one less target per game.
Similar to Bijan Robinson, the lack of production for Pitts has never been about talent. It’s been the maddening usage and poor quarterback play. With Kirk Cousins (or Michael Penix Jr?), new head coach Raheem Morris and new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, all the wrongs should be righted in 2024, setting up Pitt’s to vault back up to potential dynasty TE1 status and a weekly cheat code in fantasy. I don’t often recommend buying high, but I’m doing whatever it takes to get Pitts on my roster.
Players I’d be willing to trade for Pitts for 1 for 1: George Kittle, Davante Adams, Tank Dell
Dynasty Moves to Make Now: Sells
Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Like “generational talent” come NFL Draft time, the term “league winner” is thrown around too casually in fantasy circles. However, Kyren Williams was a textbook example in 2023. A 2022 late-round rookie draft pick in dynasty (likely on the taxi squad), a waiver wire gem in redraft, Williams was RB2 in PPR leagues on a points-per-game basis and RB7 in total points despite playing in just 12 games. While in last week’s article, I suggested holding the found money in Puka Nacua, Williams is a different story.
It was a perfect storm for Williams to break out last season. Cam Akers (remember him?) was traded in Week 3 after being talked up by head coach Sean McVay all offseason as being the guy. With Akers gone, the running back room consisted of Williams, Royce Freeman, Ronnie Rivers and Zach Evans. The Rams signed their 2019 third-round pick Darrell Henderson Jr. off the couch for four games. The end result — Williams got fed. Henderson was the only other running back who averaged over 15 snaps per game in 2023 after Akers’ departure. The reason why? In the four games Henderson played, he was replacing an injured Williams, who has a history of being unable to stay on the field.
McVay was up to his old tricks this offseason, talking up Williams as “the guy” only to draft Michigan RB Blake Corum in the third round (higher draft capital than the Rams used on Williams). Considering the context surrounding Williams’ breakout and the shaky foundation his future value is built upon, take the money and run.
Players I’d be willing to trade Williams for 1 for 1: Brandon Aiyuk, DK Metcalf
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Before we go any further, please reread the opening paragraph. I am not saying you need to get rid of McCaffrey at all costs! Do not give him away. But it is time to consider it at least. Admittedly, I prefer to get out a year too early versus a year too late when it comes to running backs. I still think CMC will push for RB1 overall, no matter the format, and likely wind up on plenty of championship teams. However, this could be your last chance to get a king’s ransom for him. He turns 28 in July, and father time is undefeated. We’ve seen it happen to each and every former fantasy stud running back: LaDainian Tomlinson, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, the list goes on and on. CMC is a no-brainer sell if you’re not contending (if he’s on your roster, you probably are). But if you can land a Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall, Jahmyr Gibbs and then some…you have to consider making that move. I’d consider dealing him for all three of those guys straight up.
Players I’d be willing to trade McCaffrey for 1 for 1: Robinson, Hall, Gibbs, Jonathan Taylor
