Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Week 8 comes to a close with a Monday Night Football showdown between the New York Giants and the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Chiefs are coming off one of the most surprising results of the year last week. Not only did they lose to the Titans, they managed just three points on offense. Three! I didn’t even realize that was within the range of outcomes for a Patrick Mahomes – Andy Reid offense.
Meanwhile, the Giants cruised to an easy 25-3 victory against the Panthers. That win brought them to just 2-5 for the year, but it was a good showing for Daniel Jones and company.
Can the Chiefs stop the bleeding this week in Kansas City? Let’s dive in.
New York Giants vs. Kansas City Chiefs Week 8 Odds
Date/Time: October 25, 8:15 p.m. ET
Arena: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
How to watch: ESPN/ABC
Opening odds: Chiefs -10 | O/U 52.5
Latest Giants-Chiefs odds
Looking for the latest odds for this matchup? Here they are, with the best prices from DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Chiefs -10.5
- Total: 52.0
For up-to-date odds, check out DraftKings Sportsbook.
Opening odds – Giants vs. Chiefs
The spread on this game opened as Chiefs -10.0, and it remains Chiefs -10.0 across most of the industry. However, that doesn’t mean that there hasn’t been movement on the line.
The line steadily dipped throughout the early week, getting as low as Chiefs -8.5 on Saturday morning. Since then, the line has crept back in the Chiefs’ favor. They’re back to being 10-point favorites at most sportsbooks, with DraftKings even moving them to -10.5.
The betting numbers are unsurprisingly in the Chiefs’ favor. They’ve received 64% of the spread tickets and 63% of the spread dollars, and there are undoubtedly plenty of Chiefs’ wagers included in moneyline parlays and teasers.
The movement on the total has been less noteworthy, although there could be some sharp interest in the over. The over has received 71% of the total dollars on just 46% of the bets, which is a sizable discrepancy.
Quarterback analysis – Daniel Jones vs. Patrick Mahomes
Daniel Jones entered the year on the hot seat, but he has shown some signs of improvement. His interception rate is way down this season — he has just four picks through seven games — and he’s also lost just two fumbles. Just under one turnover per game isn’t great, but it’s not going to kill you either.
Add it all up, and Jones has averaged a career-best 6.8 adjusted yards per attempt, despite the fact that most of his receivers have been in and out of the lineup with injuries. Jones also ranks 18th at the position in terms of Pro Football Focus grade after finishing 26th last year.
Unfortunately, Jones has not historically fared well as a large underdog. He’s played seven career games as an underdog of greater than a touchdown, and he’s just 3-4 in those outings.
Believe it or not, Patrick Mahomes is actually one spot below Jones in the PFF rankings this season. He ranks 19th among signal-callers, thanks in part to a league-leading nine interceptions. He had just 11 interceptions in the previous two seasons combined.
Last week’s performance aside, the Chiefs’ problem this year hasn’t been the offense. They rank eighth in the league in points per game and fifth in Football Outsiders offensive DVOA. Mahomes turning the ball over less would certainly help, but that is far from their biggest issue.
Still, the Chiefs have been an abomination in terms of covering the spread of late. They’ve covered just three of their past 15 regular season games, but two of those wins have come in the past four weeks. The Chiefs have cost bettors oodles of money over that time frame, but at least they might be trending in the right direction.
Latest Giants betting news & info
The Giants were absolutely decimated by injuries last week, but things look a bit better for the team entering Monday night. They are still without Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay, but Kadarius Toney appears to be ready to roll. Toney has been electric when on the field this season, so he could have a field day against the Chiefs’ poor defense.
Sterling Shepard is also expected to return despite being listed as questionable, while Darius Slayton and Evan Engram have been removed from the injury report.
That will give Jones at least a few viable pass-catchers after leaning on guys like Collin Johnson and David Sills last week. The Chiefs rank just 31st in defensive DVOA, so expect the Giants to put up points in this matchup.
Latest Chiefs betting news & info
The Chiefs’ injury report isn’t nearly as crowded as the Giants, and they’re expected to be at essentially full strength. Clyde Edwards-Helaire remains out of the lineup, but Darrel Williams has done a decent job filling in for him.
The big question is whether the Chiefs can show any signs of improvement on defense. For what it’s worth, the Giants’ offense is one of their easier matchups so far this season. No team that the Chiefs have faced ranked lower than the Giants in terms of offensive DVOA, and the Chiefs did hold the Football Team to 13 points two weeks ago. They also surrendered just 276 yards in that matchup, so there are reasons for optimism.
Giants vs. Chiefs betting picks – NFL Week 8
I would’ve gladly taken the Chiefs at less than 10 points, but things are a bit trickier with the spread back at double-digits. Even if the Chiefs do open up a big lead, there could be some backdoor potential for the Giants in the fourth quarter.
Still, I think they’re ultimately the right side. The Chiefs’ defense has been much-maligned — and rightfully so — but the Giants are not equipped to exploit that weakness. If they fall into obvious passing situations, Jones hasn’t shown the ability to beat teams exclusively with his arm.
If the Chiefs don’t cover this game, it could be officially panic time in Kansas City. That said, I’m willing to give Mahomes and Reid the benefit of the doubt one final time.
FTNBets best bet
- Chiefs -10.0
For more information, betting picks and analysis, check out the FTN NFL Bet Tracker.
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