Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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The most discussed aspect of Monday night’s Bears-Patriots game is probably the new quarterback platoon in New England, with Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe both getting a shot under center and neither putting up big numbers. The most important aspect of the game, however, might be the quarterback on the other side of the field.
Justin Fields could scarcely have started his second season in the NFL slower. Through three weeks, he had only attempted 45 passes (32nd in the league, including trailing two quarterbacks who hadn’t even started Week 1) and was QB30 in fantasy scoring at only 10.5 fantasy points per game. His Mojo stock price, which had been $27.32 before Week 1 and had climbed as high as $28.45 after the team went 1-0, fell to $25.28 in Week 3 and went as low as $24.04 after the Bears lost to Washington on Thursday night of Week 6. But Monday, facing the defense that famously has young quarterbacks seeing ghosts, Fields was a star, rushing for 82 yards and a score and helping the Bears to a runaway 33-14 win.
Justin Fields History
The Bears traded up to take Fields 11th overall in 2021, the fourth quarterback of the draft. He had entered college as a star, roughly on par with 2021 first overall pick Trevor Lawrence, and excelled throughout his Ohio State career after transferring from Georgia, including a 41-touchdown, 3-interception season in 2019. Even with that pedigree, though, the Bears didn’t give Fields a shot to start the 2021 season, slotting him behind veteran Andy Dalton. Fields took over for an injury Dalton in Week 2, getting his first start in Week 3, but it was a slow build in an offense that wasn’t built for his run-strong skillset. Fields only had 7 touchdowns against 10 interceptions over his 12 games (10 starts), but he tempered that with 420 rushing yards and a pair of scores on the ground. His rushing helped him to three QB1 weekly finishes as a rookie, including QB5 in Week 8. His Mojo stock price peaked at $30.14 in Week 13, though it fell off fast when Fields was injured, spending most of the offseason within a few cents of the $25.00 range.
Fields was the unquestioned starter entering 2022, though the team’s reluctance to throw the ball much (whether schematic or to hide Fields and a struggling line) meant he didn’t have even 10 completions in a game until Week 4 and has only had 15 completions once. Through seven weeks now, he has 5 touchdown passes against 6 interceptions and is still looking for his first career 300-passing-yard game (his 2022 max is 208). But the legs are still there – he’s run for 170 yards across the last two weeks, the fifth-best total across the NFL behind only Kenneth Walker, Travis Etienne, Saquon Barkley and Breece Hall. After not finishing better than QB23 through Week 4, he’s been QB13, QB8 and QB5 the last three weeks. That has brought his Mojo salary back up to the $25.65 it sits at as of this writing.
Going Forward
There were a lot of numbers and data points in the above paragraphs. Here are the key ones: Two months ago, Justin Fields was valued on Mojo as a quarterback worth nearly $27 or $28 in stock price, and he had topped $30 during his tenure as a starter last year. After he struggled, that price dropped. It has climbed back the past couple of weeks … but only to about where it was this summer (it’s $25.65 now and stayed firmly in that range all summer). He’s displayed elite running ability the last two weeks, and the offense has started to give him more to do. Why, then, is he still only priced as he was this summer? Why is he not more like the $27, $28 or even $30 quarterback the market valued him as before? There’s a strong argument that the Justin Fields we saw on the field Monday is the best version we’ve ever seen of him as a Bear, and currently you can get that version at a discount.
Summary
If Fields turns back into the relative pumpkin he was through the season’s first three weeks, an investment now could be a bad one. But on a team relatively devoid of weaponry, he is an obvious one, and one this new Bears regime really needs to get going as they decide whether to commit to him long term or look for their next quarterback. Fields set a career high in designed rushes Monday and also threw for 179 yards and a score. Even if he never reached superstardom, the level he’s currently performing at is more than enough for this stock price to rise, and rise considerably. He’s a buy.
