Mojo Player Spotlight: Elijah Moore, WR, New York Jets

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Typically, chemistry is more of a narrative device than a predictive one. We say that a winning team has chemistry because the players are dancing in the locker room, but the same act is viewed as a sign of immaturity and lack of caring when that team is 2-10. Even the below discussion of chemistry is more correlation than causation, because we don’t know.

But man, does it look connected.

Second-year New York Jets WR Elijah Moore has had at least 5 targets in a game five times this season. Those games came in Weeks 1-3 and then in Weeks 13-14. What else do those games have in common? Well, second-year Jets QB Zach Wilson played Weeks 4-11 this season. 

In games Wilson started, Moore had 4, 4, 0, 1 and 4 targets. He requested a trade, was deactivated for a game, fell under 40 snaps in Week 5 and didn’t climb back above. In games not-Wilson started (Joe Flacco Weeks 1-3, Mike White Weeks 11-13), Moore has had 7, 5, 9, 2, 6 and 10 targets. He averaged 33.0 offensive snaps in Wilson’s starts, 58.3 otherwise. Wilson’s on the bench now. The signs seem clear, no?

Mojo Spotlight: Elijah Moore

The Jets selected Moore in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft, 34th overall. He was the sixth receiver off the board, after Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Kadarius Toney and Rashod Bateman. After a slow start, hampered by injury, Moore came on in the middle of the season. In Weeks 8-13, he averaged 8.5 targets, 5.7 receptions and 76.5 yards in those games, scoring 5 touchdowns and putting up the fifth-most PPR points at receiver. During that stretch, his Mojo salary price hit an all-time peak of $14.49.

Then, he was hurt and missed the rest of the season, but hopes were high for 2022. Another year for him and his second-overall-pick quarterback, a new running mate in 2022 first-rounder Garrett Wilson – Moore’s stock price hovered in the $13.20 range all offseason, spiking back to over $14 right before Week 1. There was excitement. The fallow period with Wilson starting dampened it unsurprisingly, with his price dropping as low as $11.24. But now, with White at the helm and Moore seeing playing time again, things are looking up … only his price hasn’t really adjusted accordingly – as of this writing, Moore’s Mojo stock price sits at $11.62, a bit above its low point but way below its offseason peak.

Going Forward

There are two ways to consider this. Both work in Moore’s favor:

1. You believe in the Wilson/Moore bad chemistry

In this scenario, Zach Wilson being the quarterback is what held Moore back for much of the middle of the season. Well, Mike White has played well. Not superstar-level, but definitely not-going-back-to-Wilson level. Barring a complete collapse (or further injury), this is White’s job, probably for the rest of the season, and if it was Wilson holding Moore back, well, that problem is solved. And if the Jets don’t go back to Wilson the rest of this season, it seems especially unlikely (if it wasn’t already seeming unlikely) he’s the starter in 2022.

2. You think the chemistry thing is just a fluke

It’s certainly possible Moore’s struggles with Wilson are a matter of correlation more than causation. After all, good players don’t just … not produce because they don’t like/jibe with another player. In this case … well, it doesn’t matter if Wilson gets back under center or not, because Moore’s playing time has risen back up. After 22 snaps in White’s first start, he’s played 58 and 61 snaps the last two weeks, his most since Week 4.

If you believe in chemistry, things are looking up for Elijah Moore. If you don’t, things are still looking up for Elijah Moore. And despite the signs for optimism, he’s available at a stock price far closer to his low point than even his mid-range optimistic level of the offseason. He could climb back to his offseason stock price with just another good game or two. And if things really take off, he could climb over his peak value in a hurry. Either way, you’re still buying low.