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Elijah Mitchell is 16 regular-season games into his career. And yet in that time, he’s gone from nobody to star and back again more times than most players do in a career. He was a 2021 sixth-rounder who was fighting for a roster spot, then he was the surprise backup who had to start because of an injury. Then he was a hundred-yard rusher who was a hot waiver commodity. Then hurt, then star. Then hurt again, then start again. And again. And that was just his 2021 rookie year.
Entering this season, Mitchell was the unquestioned RB1 in maybe the best offense for a running back. Good news, right? That’s why he spent all offseason going for around $10 a share on Mojo. And then … hurt again. He god hurt in Week 1 and missed Weeks 2-8. He might have been a star again upon his return … except that the 49ers made a trade while he was out, adding maybe the league’s best running back in Christian McCaffrey. Mitchell returned in Week 10 to some decent work (18 carries in that game, 34 over three games), but it was clearly McCaffrey’s job first, and then after another injury cost Mitchell Weeks 13-17, his Mojo stock had dropped into the $4-$5 range. He was a backup. A backup with upside, but a backup.
Now? Now might be a time to invest.
Mojo Spotlight: Elijah Mitchell
Coming out of Louisiana-Lafayette in 2021, Mitchell was one of the best testers in the class. His college numbers were good, albeit behind a great line and against less impressive competition. In my breakdown of that year’s rookie running back class, I comped him to Zack Moss, then of the Bills and now with the Colts. Landing with the 49ers and head coach Kyle Shanahan in the sixth round bode well for Mitchell’s long-term possibility, except that the 49ers already had Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson in place and had drafted Trey Sermon in the second. Still, while Mitchell never did (and still doesn’t) profile as much of a receiver, in that offense, with that coach, opportunity was enough to make him relevant.
Going Forward
In Sunday’s 19-12 Divisional Round win over the Dallas Cowboys, McCaffrey had 16 touchdowns (10 carries, 6 receptions) compared to 14 (all carries) for Mitchell. Mitchell was slightly more efficient on his carries than McCaffrey (3.6 yards per carry to 3.5) against a strong Dallas run defense. But the most important takeaway was the fourth quarter. McCaffrey got the first carry of the quarter, a 2-yard touchdown that ultimately proved to be the winning score. But, despite the 49ers never leading by more than a possession, McCaffrey didn’t have another carry in the game, with his only two touches the rest of the way coming on receptions.
With McCaffrey resting with calf discomfort, it was Mitchell who got the carries down the stretch, helping preserve the 49ers’ trip to the NFC Conference Championships. And now, the team heads into Sunday’s game with a chance for a trip to the Super Bowl on the line, and McCaffrey still has that calf discomfort. If McCaffrey isn’t 100% Sunday, Mitchell will get increased run. And if Mitchell gets increased run in a game that sends the 49ers to the Super Bowl … well, his Mojo price will increase accordingly.
Summary
As of this writing, Elijah Mitchell is $5.24 a share on Mojo. That’s up a bit from its peak price, but still down almost 50% from its offseason peak. McCaffrey is still under contract for next season, so Mitchell isn’t likely to open 2023 as the starter. But the one thing everyone knows about Christian McCaffrey is that he is an injury risk, and so no backup in the league has more upside than his. Mitchell could help carry his team to the Super Bowl this week, and in doing so give himself a healthy share price heading into next season. That equals profit for anyone who gets in now.