Matthew Stafford 2022 Prop Bets: Passing Yards, TD Predictions

All it took was one year away from the Detroit Lions for Matthew Stafford to get his Super Bowl ring. Coming off a championship run with the Los Angeles Rams, the quarterback is projected to be back among the league leaders in passing yards and passing touchdowns for the 2022 regular season.

Staffford’s 2022 prop bets include totals north of 4,500 passing yards and 34 passing touchdowns at various sportsbooks. The veteran finished well above both numbers in his first season with the Rams.

The decision to trade Jared Goff and three draft picks for Stafford couldn’t have worked out better for Los Angeles. Stafford’s 4,886 passing yards were good for third in the 2021 NFL season. Only Tom Brady threw for more than Stafford’s 41 passing touchdowns. Stafford also ranked third with 8.1 yards per attempt.

Stafford had a 108.3 passer rating in four playoff games. Cooper Kupp was named the Super Bowl MVP, but Stafford had three touchdown passes and made a strong case to win the award. 

That’s not to say that there aren’t any question marks surrounding Stafford and the Rams offense in 2022. Offensive Coordinator Kevin O’Connell left Los Angeles to become the head coach of the Minnesota Vikings. Robert Woods was traded to the Tennessee Titans, and the status of Odell Beckham remains unknown following his ACL tear in the Super Bowl.

Despite his impressive stats, Stafford wasn’t selected to the Pro Bowl. He played poorly at times down the stretch of the regular season, throwing multiple interceptions in five of his last nine games.

As long as Stafford stays healthy, the Rams should be one of the top contenders in the NFC. What kind of stats will Stafford put up during Los Angeles’ championship defense?

Let’s take a look at the odds for Stafford’s passing totals in the 2022 NFL season and the best bet for each prop.

Matthew Stafford Prop Bets for 2022

Use the FTN Bets Prop Shop to find which sportsbook has the best odds for different player prop bets.

How Many Passing Yards Will Matthew Stafford Have In 2022?

Over 4,550.5 Yards (-102, FanDuel Sportsbook)

You can bet Stafford to throw for over 4,500.5 yards at -110 odds at DraftKings, but it’s worth taking the extra 50 yards at FanDuel for close to even odds. Not only does Stafford have a year of experience in Sean McVay’s offense, but he’s playing under far less pressure now that he’s won a Super Bowl. It doesn’t hurt that Kupp and Allen Robinson give the Rams one of the league’s best receiver duos.

Give McVay an average quarterback, and there’s a good chance that he’ll help his signal-caller throw for more than 4,550.5 yards. In two of his last three seasons with the Rams, Goff had at least 4,638 passing yards, and he did so each time in a 16-game season. It’s pretty clear that the Lions coaching and offense had a lot to do with the dip in Stafford’s passing totals during his last three seasons in Detroit.

Early in his career, Stafford had at least 4,650 passing yards in three straight seasons, including a 5,000-yard campaign. A 4,551-yard season over the course of 17 games comes out to an average of 267.7 yards per contest. Stafford has hit that average in seven of the last 11 seasons. In two seasons, Stafford averaged just over 266 yards per game.

How Many Touchdown Passes Will Matthew Stafford Throw In 2022?

Under 34.5 TDs (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Stafford’s 4,886 passing yards last year weren’t an aberration for his career. His 41 touchdowns, on the other hand, were somewhat of an outlier. Stafford tied his career-high for touchdown passes, which he set in 2011. The only other time that Stafford even thrown for 30 touchdown passes was in 2015 when he totaled 32 scores.

Stafford can be just as good as he was last season and still fall short of 35 touchdown passes. Seven quarterbacks threw for at least 35 scores in 2021. Only six players did it in 2020. From 2017-2019, five quarterbacks total hit the milestone. 

As well as he played en route to winning a Super Bowl, Stafford still doesn’t belong on the NFL’s top tier of quarterbacks. Stafford threw a league-high 17 interceptions in 2021. He’s thrown double-digit picks in all 11 of his seasons in which he’s played at least 10 games. Stafford makes enough mistakes that getting back to 35 passing touchdowns could be a struggle. 

How to Bet Matthew Stafford Props

Player prop bets aren’t only available for individual games. Sportsbooks allow bettors to wager on player totals for the entire season.

Once you’ve set up an account with a sportsbook that operates in your state and you’ve deposited money, you’re ready to bet on player futures. In the player props section, quarterbacks are given a passing yards total, along with odds for both the over and the under.

Matthew Stafford’s regular-season passing yards total, for example, is 4,550.5 yards. The over has -102 odds, and the under has -126 odds. When the odds have a minus sign, the number represents how much money you would have to risk in order to make $100 for a winning bet.

A winning $102 bet on Stafford to throw over 4,550.5 yards would result in a profit of $100. In total, $202 should be added to your account, including a $100 profit and the $102 you originally wagered. A winning $100 bet on Stafford’s over for passing yards would come with a $98.04 profit.

Check out the FTN Bets Parlay Calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.