Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
As fantasy football has grown in popularity over the years, the diversity of league formats and scoring has increased as well. There are different strokes for all types of fantasy football folks these days.
Today I want to focus on two of those in particular: Best ball, and within that game, tight end premium scoring. Tight end premium scoring is exactly what it implies, as it places greater emphasis on the tight end position. Tight end premium best ball league sites like the Fantasy Football Players Championship award 1.5 points per reception to the tight end position.
With various premium scoring formats, there are significant questions to answer when approaching a draft. How many tight ends do I select? When should I draft them? Who should those draft targets be? Looking back at the last two years of FFPC best ball data (courtesy of FantasyMojo.com ) and to the year of football ahead, let's dive in to give these questions some much-needed answers.
Roster construction
In a 28-round draft, in consideration of positional scarcity and format, how many tight ends are needed for the optimal roster construction? How many tight ends are too many? In 2019 among the top five most drafted FFPC roster combinations, four of those five constructions held win rates of 10.33% or higher (average win rate 8.3%). Of those four rosters builds with above-average win rates, two builds drafted three tight ends, and the other two drafted four tight ends. From 2017 to 2019, best ball rosters with three to five tight ends held win rates between 8.2 and 8.7%. Rosters with anywhere from three to five tight ends accounted for 92.8% of all teams drafted. So the short answer is to draft between three and five tight ends with a slight preference to rostering three or four.
When to draft tight ends can vary each draft depending on differing player exposure and any early draft capital invested in the position. The decision to draft three versus five tight ends can also be affected by when the first tight end is selected as well.
Over the last two years, excluding rounds 11-15, hit rates for finding a top 12 tight end have been close, ranging from 25 to 33%. Zooming in further, 62.5% of top 12 tight ends have been drafted in the top 10 rounds of drafts while also noting that 87.5% of top 12 tight ends have been selected in the top 10 rounds or after the 16th.
Now, the obvious question is why “Round 16” is given as a cutoff to define late rounds. Per last year’s ADP data, that was the first round in which multiple team defenses were selected. In other words, that’s the point at which defenses are a more sought-after commodity than positional players, a proper definition of later rounds.
The takeaway from all this is that you should aim to have two tight ends through 10 rounds and be prepared to select 1-3 more after the 15th round. (Obviously, the question of whether to take one, two or three late tight ends depends in large part on the identities of the early ones taken and other roster construction questions.)
2020 tight end targets
In a format that offers a boost to players who receive volume (i.e., receptions), the common-sense correlation is that players garnering target volume should be the primary beneficiaries in this scoring system. The data follows suit with this theory.
Over the last two years, tight ends have needed 98 or more targets to reach top-five status at the position. Each tight end who saw 82 or more targets over our two-year sample finished no lower than 13th in scoring at the position.
Here are 10 tight ends to target (ADP before the 10th round or after the 16th round) with cemented top-shelf status or a discernible path to it.
Early rounds
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs: Kelce is the alpha in the room, and there isn’t much on the horizon to knock him off. Kelce has been the TE1 in tight end premium for four straight years. Kelce’s combination of target volume and red-zone role is elite. Kelce has finished each of the last three seasons in the top two at his position for targets (first, second, first) and top six in the NFL in red-zone targets. Last year (in fantasy points per game), Kelce would have been the RB7 and the WR3. While the draft cost is steep, the price to get exposure to Kelce is still worth paying.
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers: Kittle has finished second and third over the last two years in fantasy points per game in TE premium scoring. Kittle has done so while scoring only 10 total touchdowns. His lofty draft position still possesses equity and upside. Only Kelce, Zach Ertz and Kittle have finished with 85 or more receptions in each of the last two years — and Kittle did so last year despite missing two games. Kittle’s role as the top passing option for the 49ers is unquestioned. His untapped touchdown potential gives him TE1 overall upside.
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens: Andrews exploded in his second year in the league, finishing as the TE5 in TE premium. Andrews was one of only six tight ends to command a 20% or higher target share. Andrews also had the highest air yard market share of any tight end last year. For as good as Andrews was, the arrow still might be pointing up. Andrews dealt with ankle, foot, knee and shoulder injuries at various points of last season. While these injuries did not force Andrews to miss any games (outside of sitting out a meaningless Week 17), they could have cut into his snaps. In Weeks 11-15, Andrews did not play above 43% of snaps or run more than 15 routes in any game. Andrews surpassed those marks in seven of his other 10 games. And now, with the departure of Hayden Hurst and his 457 snaps (the exact same as Andrews), more playing time could be in store. Better health for Andrews and the continued evolution of Lamar Jackson could mean even brighter days are still ahead.
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles: Ertz has been a lock for 100-plus targets for the last five seasons. There’s not much reason to believe that won’t continue for a sixth straight season. In 2019, the Eagles ran the most plays per game in the NFL with Carson Wentz also matching his career-high in pass attempts per game (37.9). The health of DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and Marquise Goodwin are no sure things at this point in their careers. Outside of injury, Ertz is a safe bet to again finish among the top five tight ends with the upside to be top three still.
Middle rounds
Hayden Hurst, Atlanta Falcons: Hurst was efficient with his limited opportunities (39 targets) last year, finishing with a 76.9% catch rate and a 120.6 passer rating when targeted. Now, in Atlanta, Hurst is going to have more chances to show what he can do. As long as Dirk Koetter is at the controls, the Falcons are going to be among the league’s most pass-heavy offenses. Koetter’s offense has been top four in passing attempts in each of the last four years. With Austin Hooper gone and Hurst competing with Russell Gage for third in the pecking order, a path to 90 targets lies ahead.
Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins: Let’s get one thing straight: Gesicki is a slot wide receiver masquerading as a tight end. Last year, Gesicki ran out of the slot on 69.7% of his snaps. That amount of slot usage is astronomical even compared to other move tight ends. Kelce, Ertz and Andrews all saw between 41 and 58% of their snaps from the slot. The mismatch Geskicki presents for linebackers and slot corners is ludicrous. During Chan Gailey’s last stop (Jets, 2015-2016), Eric Decker and Quincy Enunwa both posted the top two yards-per-game marks of their careers running from the slot. Expect Gailey to feed Gesicki this season even with Preston Williams back in the fold.
Late rounds
Darren Fells, Houston Texans: Fells quietly finished second on the Texans last season in red-zone targets (12) behind only DeAndre Hopkins. With Hopkins shipped off to Arizona, Fells' red-zone role remains, with room for even more in 2020. Last year, Fells played 70% snaps or more in nine of his final 11 games. The divide between Fells and Jordan Akins inside the 20-yard line widened during that stretch as well; Fells saw 10 red-zone targets to Akins' three. With a brittle depth chart, Fells could fall backward into a volume boost this year.
Vance McDonald, Pittsburgh Steelers: In an offseason with questionable training camp and preseason preparation, previous rapport could loom large. Since 2017, among 10 Steeler pass catchers with 30 or more targets from Ben Roethlisberger, McDonald is second to only JuJu Smith-Schuster in adjusted yards per attempt. McDonald’s familiarity with Roethlisberger and his previous role inside the red zone could conceivably give him a leg up on Eric Ebron in the tight end room. Last year, McDonald led the team in red-zone targets with nine. As productive as Ebron has been during his NFL tenure, soft and steady hands have never been his calling card. Over the previous two seasons, Ebron has finished among the top five in drops at the tight end position in each year. Vance can dance his way back to fantasy relevance this year if he’s able to hold off Ebron, James Washington, and Chase Claypool as the Steelers’ third passing option.
Jacob Hollister, Seattle Seahawks: The draft positions of Greg Olsen and Will Dissly will far outweigh that of Hollister, but in terms of production, they shouldn’t. It’s fair to wonder (from both health and production perspectives) what Olsen has left in the tank at this point. Dissly is coming off his second career-threatening injury with an Achilles tendon rupture (2019) and a patellar tendon rupture (2018). When Dissly was on the field last year, he was the ninth-highest-scoring tight end (14.2 points per game). After Hollister took over as the starter last year (Week 9), he posted two top-four scoring games, and half of his games (4) were in the top 13 at his position. Much like the Patriots backfield, the name of the game for Seattle tight ends is to target the cheapest option in drafts, and that’s Hollister.
Josh Oliver, Jacksonville Jaguars: New Jaguars offensive coordinator Jay Gruden has a long history of integrating athletic tight ends to stretch the seam, with Tyler Eifert, Jermaine Gresham, Jordan Reed, and Vernon Davis. At this stage of his career, newly signed Eifert is almost certainly no longer that guy, now merely a role player. In 2019, despite staying healthy for all 16 games, he played more than 55% of snaps or ran more than 20 routes in only four games. In last season’s limited three-game sample, the Jaguars want Ed Oliver and his 87th percentile speed score on the field as much as possible. Oliver topped 20 routes run per game in each of his final two games. Oliver’s combination of size and speed make him this year’s must-have late-round dart throw.
