Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The biggest game of the Week 9, by a fairly substantial margin, is the fight for first place in the NFC North. The 6-1 Detroit Lions travel to take on the 6-2 Green Bay Packers, with the winner guaranteed to be in first place in the division as we reach the halfway point of the year.
In terms of our Super Bowl odds, this is the most impactful game of the week. A Lions win would give them a 43% chance to make the Super Bowl in our projections (pending the rest of Week 9, of course), while the Packers slide up to 14% with a win of their own. It’s also massive in terms of the NFC North race. A Lions win would give then a 78% chance of winning the division, while the Packers would fall to 5%, with the Vikings slipping between them at 15%. The Lions would still be our favorites with a loss, but it’d be a much closer race – Lions 45%, Packers 31%, Vikings 23%.
The biggest question we have about this game is which quarterbacks will actually be playing. Jordan Love is still recuperating from the groin injury he suffered last week, and while he did return to the practice field on Thursday, there’s still a chance that Malik Willis will start. Jared Goff, too, was held out of Wednesday’s practice with an ankle injury, but was a full participant on Thursday and looks good to go.
That means the Packers will be tasked with slowing down the NFC Player of the Month from October. Goff was 52-for-65 for 680 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions in his three games this month, and was fourth among qualified quarterbacks with a 34.6% passing DVOA. That does include the blowout win over the Titans where Goff’s services were basically not needed, but it doesn’t include his 18-for-18 performance from September 30th, so it’s all well and good – Goff has been putting up tremendous numbers as the Lions have surged to the top of the conference.
Using StatsHub, you can filter both Goff’s performances and Green Bay’s defensive showings, to try to figure out where the Packers might be able to slow down Detroit’s offense, and where they’re going to be picked apart. It can help you get a better feel for just how this matchup is going to play out.
The most interesting takeaway from this matchup is Goff’s relative struggles against zone coverage. Goff’s 40.2% DVOA against man coverage is second in the league behind only Sam Darnold Jameson Williams (91 receiving DYAR), Amon-Ra St. Brown (77 DYAR) and Sam LaPorta (40 DYAR) have all been nightmares for opposing defenses to cover one-on-one, and defenses have mostly been blowing it. 16.2% of Detroit’s throws against man-to-man coverage have gone to a wide-open receiver, second most in the league behind the Baltimore Ravens. Only 13.3% of their targets against man have come to a receiver in tight coverage, lowest in the league – someone, somewhere is going to be open, and Goff is finding them at a very high rate.
But against zone? It’s a different story. Goff’s DVOA falls to 1.4%, which ranks 20th in the league. That 38.8% drop in DVOA is the fourth largest between man and zone (behind Darnold, Bryce Young, and Jalen Hurts), and it’s a large enough sample size that it’s beginning to be notable.
LaPorta has been fine against zone coverage, and while St. Brown’s DVOA drops from 47.1% to 11.5% against zone, he’s doing alright as well. The real problem has been Goff trying to hook up with Williams – he falls to a -28.8% DVOA when targeted against zone coverage. Goff is just 9-for-19 hooking up with Williams against zone coverages for 136 yards, one touchdown and an interception. Williams’ wide-open rate plummets from 18.2% to 5.3%, his aDOT drops from 16.6 to 11.7 … it basically takes the sting out of the deep ball for the Lions.
Against man, Goff is 8-for-15 for 290 yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions and a 146.3% DVOA on deep passes. Against zone, he’s 11-for-22 for 256 yards with a touchdown, two interceptions, and an 18.4% DVOA. Sit in zone, and you take away Williams and take the sting out of the Detroit deep passing game.
Good news, then for Green Bay there – fewer teams use more zone or are more effective at it than the Packers. Green Bay has 181 dropbacks in zone coverage so far this season, fifth in the league. They’re holding opposing quarterbacks to a -5.5% DVOA, putting Green Bay ninth in the league. They are third with seven interceptions, sixth with eight turnover-worthy plays forced, and fourth with 13 sacks coming out of zone coverage – and that’s while blitzing only 10.5% of the time. Jeff Hafley loves to sit back in Cover 1 or Cover 3 looks, shut down the middle of the field with a single high safety, and dare you to find a hole to slip into. Despite sitting in these single-high safety looks for the majority of their snaps, they’ve only allowed six deep completions all year in zone coverage. And you thought two-high was the only way to shut the passing game down in 2024!
The Packers may have some problems of their own, however, as we have to go back to that lengthy injury list. Jaire Alexander and Evan Williams are both not practicing at the moment, and Corey Ballentine is still limited with a hamstring. While there’s still a chance some or all could still play, their absences required some major reshuffling on the defensive side of the ball in the second half against Jacksonville, when the Jaguars started to catch up. Williams being out moved Javon Bullard out from slot corner back to a more traditional free safety role, and Trevor Lawrence was able to target him repeatedly – he was the one in coverage on the go-ahead touchdown to Brian Thomas in the third quarter. Bullard’s move and Alexander’s injury meant that the Packers had to start more Eric Stokes, too, and that didn’t go well, either. Alexander has a coverage DVOA of -36.5%, 10th in the league. Stokes was at 39.9%, 84th out of 87, and that was before the Jacksonville game. The Packers would really like at least one of Alexander or Williams to suit up, as a re-shuffled secondary isn’t likely to have the same success they’ve been having for most of the season.
Green Bay’s other problem is that while they have the fourth-best DVOA defending deep passes (19.0%), they rank 20th defending short passes (19.7%). Detroit has the fifth-best passing DVOA on short passes (43.3%). Amon-Ra St. Brown’s 168 receiving DYAR on short passes ranks 14th in the league, and this seems like an ideal week for him to go off. That will be the key for Goff and the Lions this week – don’t get frustrated if Green Bay can shut down the deep ball, and just pick and grind at them all day long with short, frustrating things. Slants to St. Brown, swings to Jahmyr Gibbs, and let a Packers defense that has missed the second-most tackles in the league this season try to slow them up.
And then there’s the wild card. While the Lions’ offense has been rolling so far this season, they have yet to play a game outside – four home games, and then trips to domes in Arizona, Dallas and Minnesota. Last season, Goff had a 26.7% passing DVOA indoors and a 22.3% DVOA outdoors in clear weather, so simply being outside isn’t likely to derail him much. But Goff hasn’t played in the rain since 2021. His two rain games in a Detroit uniform saw him with DVOAs of 2.9% (in a 35-17 loss to Green Bay) and -51.2% (in a 16-16 tie against the Steelers). The weather report for this weekend calls for periods of rain – not a drenching downpour or anything, but a 70% chance of some precipitation during the game itself. We’re talking very small sample sizes; Goff only has three rain games total in his career. But in an attempt to slow down the fourth-best offense in football, the Packers will try to find a cloud in any silver-and-Honolulu blue lining.
