Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Motion is one of the most overlooked nuances in professional football. It is used quite a bit in today’s game, yet most casual football fans don’t really understand what motion can bring to an offense. Since 2017, pre-snap motion has increased to nearly 50% among NFL offenses.
By tracking every detail on every NFL play, FTN Data is the driving force that powers the actionable numbers explaining which offenses are the most explosive and why. From pre-snap formations, to RPOs, to post snap coverages, I have been able to analyze the nuances and trends of various teams.
What Motion Does
Motion in most cases is utilized to uncover defensive strategy. Often, offenses would send a receiver in motion to discover if the defense was in zone coverage, a man coverage or some combination based on how they would realign in motion.
Over the years, it started to trend toward motion at the snap of the ball to set up plays in both the run and pass game as well as create easier blocking lanes for WRs to get involved in pass protection, run fits and take pressure off of offensive lineman.
Now, teams use a combination of all these things in their offenses as well as use motion to create matchups for their best receivers. It is no secret that the league is primarily a passing juggernaut; finding ways to create matchups is essentially the best way to beat the best defenses in football. In most cases too, quarterbacks can send players in motion on command rather than by play design.
We are going to focus on passing offenses for now. Below are some of the teams that utilize motion the most in the NFL through the first 8 weeks of the season in their passing attack.
Top 5 Teams Utilizing Pre-Snap Motion in the Passing Game
1. Miami Dolphins — 176 snaps, 1,342 yards
2. Kansas City Chiefs — 151 snaps, 1,031 yards
3. San Francisco 49ers — 137 snaps, 957 yards
4. New York Jets — 133 snaps, 649 yards
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 120 snaps, 760 yards
5 Most Explosive (15+ Yards) Plays When Using Pre-Snap Motion
1. Miami Dolphins – 37 plays
2. Kansas City Chiefs – 25 plays
3. San Francisco 49ers – 20 plays
4. Detroit Lions – 18 plays
5. New York Jets – 17 plays
(Worth noting: Detroit Lions – 92 snaps, 682 yards; Baltimore Ravens – 100 snaps, 623 yards)
While motion is used across the league, I think it is worth noting that the teams at the top either have a plethora of weapons in the pass game that have unique speed and athletic advantages on most defenses, or they have a top-tier QB that understands how to create the matchups that they would like.
It cannot be overstated that there are outliers in this group, however. Giving credit where it is due, the New York Jets, 49ers and Lions have offensive coordinators that have leaned on their creativity to put these offenses in positions to make decisions easier for quarterbacks and make defenses easier to read.
Miami is on one of the most historic offensive runs in franchise history thanks to Mike McDaniel and their offensive weapons. Motion is used for them to create speedy matchups between Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and even the running backs, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson. McDaniel also came from a 49ers team that ranked as one of the top pre-snap motion teams in the NFL since Kyle Shanahan arrived. This has led to the Dolphins having a league-leading 37 explosive pass plays when using pre-snap motion.
While the Chiefs do not have the speedy Tyreek Hill to exploit defenses in zone coverage and man coverage, they still do use Travis Kelce quite as bit across formations to get to LB matchups and provide help in pass protection against the better edge players. The use of motion in this offense is predicated directly towards Eric Bienemy’s ability to keep defenses on their toes, even with a generational talent at QB like Patrick Mahomes.
While the Ravens do not necessarily have great matchups in the receiving game, they do still have Mark Andrews and Lamar Jackson. While they are more dependent on motion in the run game, they use the same motion to set up play action passes to make use of Jackson in space with defenses having to account for sideline-to-sideline receiving threats as well as Jackson’s feet on rollouts.
Bottom 6 Teams in Utilizing Pre-Snap Motion in the Passing Game
27. Chicago Bears – 58 snaps, 235 yards
28. Houston Texans – 55 snaps, 302 yards
29. Cincinnati Bengals – 53 snaps, 269 yards
30. Philadelphia Eagles – 51 snaps, 317 yards
31. Tennessee Titans – 36 snaps, 219 yards
32. New Orleans Saints – 24 snaps, 164 yards
6 Fewest Explosive (15+ Yards) Plays When Using Pre-Snap Motion
27(t). Las Vegas Raiders – 5 plays
27(t). Washington Commanders – 5 plays
29(t). Denver Broncos – 4 plays
39(t). Pittsburgh Steelers – 4 plays
31(t). New Orleans Saints – 3 plays
31(t). Tennessee Titans – 3 plays
There are some definite outliers on this list. It is worth noting that the Bears, Texans and Titans all lack the receiving corps to truly exploit defenses. To add to that, these offenses, along with the Steelers and Commanders, are going through a mix of quarterback struggles or coordinators that are failing to figure out what identity their teams are offensively. A lot of times, new coaches and coordinators fail to use motion as much as they should, add in the fact that some of these coaches also have a discrepancy in quarterback play and it leads to output like what’s shown above.
The biggest surprises are easily the Bengals and the Eagles. Both teams are loaded with weapons and experienced coaches and/or quarterbacks. However, the Bengals are the biggest disappointment because their offense at times struggles in due part to how simple they keep it and the lack of matchups they create with their assets and motion. You could make the same argument about the Eagles. What the eagles are doing well though is they are keeping it very simple for Jalen Hurts. Sometimes an RPO is just as good as motion because it will give you matchups as well as options. Sometimes the best option is to just hand it off rather than take a shot down the field.
The Saints sit at dead last in their utilization of motion in their offense as well as explosive plays. While injuries have decimated a once promising receiving crew, the emergence of Chris Olave (who went in motion quite a bit at Ohio State) and finding ways to get him in space should be a priority for a New Orleans offense that is struggling to move the ball.
Lastly, the Raiders and Broncos both sit in the back eight of teams that use motion. To add to that, they cannot find a way to create big plays when they do use it. This can be attributed to the rocky play of both Derek Carr and Russell Wilson this season up to this point, but both coaches must do a better job of taking advantage of the weapons and the veteran presence of these guys who are behind the center to create easier completions and matchups for their offenses to get back on track.
