Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Thursday 10/17)
MLB Dream
After Week 3, I wrote about rising pressure rates and poor performance against the blitz as better explanations for the drop in offensive production than two-high coverage rates. Since then, offense has seemingly bounced back. Quarterbacks combined for 10 300-yard performances in Weeks 1-3 but have had 18 since. Median QB DYAR was 117 in Weeks 1-3, but it’s up to 174 in Weeks 4-6. Interestingly, though, there has been no change to success rates. Median passing success rate is 48.0% in both Weeks 1-3 and Weeks 4-6. On the other hand, average depth of target is way up, from 7.0 yards to 7.6 yards and there have consequently been more 20 -yard completions in Weeks 4-6 despite fewer games (because of bye weeks). In other words, passing production is up because explosive plays have bounced back, at least a little bit. The question is … why?
Two High vs Single High Rates
Contrary to popular belief, two-high rates differ widely from one team to the next. There has absolutely not been a uniform move towards two-high. For example, Minnesota has the highest two-high rate at 60.8%. Cleveland is last at 20.6%. As a whole, two-high coverage is being used 2.6% percentage points less often in 2024 than it was in 2022. Important note – at FTN, we chart coverages on passing plays only, because we chart the actual coverage, not the pre-snap coverage look. For example, if a team shows single-high pre-snap, but then aggressively drops the second safety back into the deep half, we chart that play as two-high. This is an important distinction because we’re not diving into pass and run rates here, we’re simply looking at what happens when teams do pass. And therefore we want to know exactly how they’re being covered.
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