Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
All NFL season long, you can bet on spreads, over/unders, player props and so many more things.
But it’s in the Super Bowl that the real fun begins.
The Super Bowl is the biggest betting showcase every year, with more props and more lines available than any other single game. But sportsbooks also go crazy with the novelty props, with coin tosses and Gatorade colors and so many more things available.
Most of our analysis pertains to on-field performance. Pretty standard. Today? Today we’re going a little sideways. Either off-field stuff or some of the weirder on-field ideas.
These are our favorite novelty props for Sunday’s Super Bowl.
Novelty Prop Bets for Super Bowl 58
On-Field (or On-Field Adjacent)
Will There Be a Scorigami? Yes
+2000, DraftKings Sportsbook
Selection by: Scott Spratt
With the NFL fast approaching its 60th birthday, Scorigamis — or unique final scores — have increasingly high point totals. The 30 Scorigamis since 2020 have averaged a 46.2 over/under and 65.3 points scored versus 45.4 and 44.9 in the nearly 1,100 other games. This Super Bowl has a high 47.5 over/under, and I think +2000 odds are decent that two top eight DVOA offenses can combine for 60-plus points and land on a unique total.
Final Score to Have Occurred in a Previous Super Bowl: Yes
+300, FanDuel Sportsbook
Selection by: Prop God
I’m expecting a close game with a point differential of about 3-4 points. Eight of the last 19 Super Bowls have been decided by 3-4 points. Nice bit of history on our side.
Will There Be a QB Sneak for a 1st-Down/TD? Yes
+330, DraftKings Sportsbook
Selection by: Daniel Kelley
We’ve seen Brock Purdy break out the legs more often these postseason, with a career-high 21-yard run in the Conference Championships against Detroit. Patrick Mahomes has all but retired the QB sneak, but that’s pretty widely known, and if the entire world is assuming they won’t break it out again for fear of injuring the superstar QB, what better misdirect than to break it out on the biggest possible stage? One of these guys will get a one-yard sneak at some point.
Any Player to Record an Octopus: Yes
+980, FanDuel Sportsbook
Selection by: Alex Blickle
An octopus is when a player scores the touchdown and 2-point conversion on the same drive. Both of these teams have numerous players used in short yardage a ton who can also score from further out — Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco, Jerick McKinnon (if he plays), etc.
Justin Watson Longest Air Yards from a Single Reception
+630, FanDuel Sportsbook
Selection by: Josh Gross
Per FTN Data, among those with at least 40 targets this season, Justin Watson was third in the NFL behind Jalin Hyatt and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in aDOT. What separates Watson from Valdes-Scantling is Watson was tied for fifth in targets of 30 air yards or longer, with five, tying for fourth most.
Golf Tie-Ins
Parlay Scottie Scheffler Win with Any SB Bet
+500, DraftKings Sportsbook (also available at varying odds at many books)
Selection by: Alex Blickle
Our FTNData model has his fair odds at +440, so there’s some real value here. Throw the golf on as you pregame the Super Bowl, and if Scottie wins, your Super Bowl experience can suddenly become an extremely profitable one.
Either Christian McCaffrey to Score 1st TD or Scottie Scheffler to Win Phoenix Open
+150, FanDuel Sportsbook
Selection by: Josh Culp
Scheffler is a huge favorite this week in Phoenix, and our FTN models agree +500 is more than a fair price. Christian McCaffrey is the most likely to score, and his first-TD prop sits around +300. If that is close to a fair price, then this either/or prop is juicy enough to grab some value that gives you a golf sweat with the chance of connecting on McCaffrey if Scheffler doesn’t pull through.
No Actual Football Here
Color of First Bucket of Gatorade Poured on Winning Head Coach: Orange
+300, DraftKings Sportsbook
Selection by: Jay Felicio
Purple is the current favorite on DraftKings at +225, but I like orange at +300. While the Chiefs gave Andy Reid a purple Gatorade bath last season, it was just the third time since 2001 purple was the winner. Orange has been the Gatorade color dumped on the winning head coach 21.7% of the time in that same timeframe. The last time we saw orange? When the Chiefs took down the 49ers in 2020. It’s due.
Coin Toss: Heads
-105, DraftKings Sportsbook
Selection by: Nick Makowitz
I was confirming the date of the Super Bowl a few weeks ago before inviting my in-laws over when I stumbled across an event in my calendar that past degenerate me left for future degenerate me. It reads “Last year was Tails. Bet HEADS!” I cannot and will not betray myself.
Will Taylor Swift Wear a Kristin Juszczyk Custom Design? Yes
+310, FanDuel Sportsbook
Selection by: Chris Meaney
Taylor Swift will be seen wearing a Kristin Juszczyk custom design at the Super Bowl. Taylor was seen at Arrowhead Stadium wearing a puffer jacker with No. 87 on it during the Wild Card win over Miami last month. Juszczyk, the wife of 49ers’ fullback Kyle Juszczyk, has since landed a licensing deal with the NFL and she was quoted saying she can’t wait for everyone to see her Super Bowl creations.
Usher First Song Performed “OMG”
Usher Over 8.5 Songs Performed
+145, FanDuel Sportsbook
Selection by: Chris Meaney
Usher’s first song during the Super Bowl hal time show will be “OMG” at +145. Usher typically opens up his shows with “My Way,” which is the favorite, but “OMG” features a catchy beat and hook. It’s a party vibe track that the entire crowd can get into right away. If you’re looking for a longshot, shoutout to his first hit “You Make Me Wanna…,” which is +2300. Finally, there’s a bit of juice on over 8.5 songs performed at halftime (-155), but it’s something I think will hit.
Number of Times Tony Romo Says ‘Jim…’
Over 30.5, Kutt
Selection by: Adam Rosenberg
The first five weeks of last season, he said it 20-40 times … per game. Now in the biggest game of the year, he will bring his J-game.
