Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Multiple times each week, Brad Evans, in this space, will ramble on about whatever random, likely tequila-influenced fantasy football/betting thoughts are coursing through his often-moronic mind. Today’s topic: The confounding Rams backfield.
Running back by committee.
When voiced by a head coach, it’s a phrase that shakes the cage, disrupts the soul and shivers the spine. All fantasy players fear it. All hope to escape it. The clutches can lead to ruined rosters and maddened minds. It’s why workhorse running backs like Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry always command exorbitant premiums in fantasy.
It may sound cliché, like a dog lifting its leg on a fire hydrant or Antonio Brown retiring then unretiring on social media within the span of 24 hours, but the NFL is fraught with timeshare peril. Over the past five seasons, just 31 rushers (6.2 per year) crossed the 300-touch threshold. A downward trend was bucked last year as nine RBs reached the magical mark — the most since 2013 — but rookie talent injections into Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Detroit and Baltimore arrow to 2019 being a blip. COVID-19’s forcible closing of team facilities this past offseason also increases injury risk which could lead coaches to diversify workloads.
Los Angeles, too, is projected to be a complicated rotational backfield, one that has prospective fantasy drafters steering clear of the entire Rams situation.
But exercise trepidation and you may miss out on a golden investment opportunity.
Sean McVay, similar to Bruce Arians, is one of the straightest shooters in the NFL. Around this time last summer, he publicly detailed plans for Todd Gurley’s usage. The former rush king and his ARTHRITIC KNEE would be brought along slowly at first. If Gurley’s tender bones responded positively, McVay remarked, the bulldozer’s workload would steadily increase as the mercury dropped.
A man of his word, McVay delivered precisely on what he promised.
Gurley, on roughly 55-60% of the opportunity share, was rescued by end-zone spikes over the season’s first half, but once his snap share and workload ramped up from Weeks 11-17, he checked in at No. 9 in total fantasy points in 0.5 PPR leagues netting 79.3 combined yards and seven touchdowns in seven clashes.
Coachspeak often needs to be taken with an enormous grain of salt, but McVay is typically blunt. His admission the Rams will subscribe to a “running back by committee approach” should be heavily weighed. However, his words aren’t a death knell for upstart Cam Akers. In fact, if you read between the lines of what McVay recently expressed — “open-minded approach,” “it will naturally work itself out” and “hot hand” — the table is set for the rookie to seize lead duties.
Why?
One word: talent.
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Dodging would-be tacklers with regularity behind a ghostlike Florida State offensive line, Akers displayed the needed razzle-dazzle to be enormously successful at the pro level. At 5-foot-10 and 217 pounds he, in terms of musculature, is a prototype NFL rusher. His 4.47 40-yard wheels aren’t too shabby either.
Breaking down the film, Akers possesses the short-field acceleration, patience, cut-back vision, lateral explosion and toughness to mystify defenses. Last year on a painfully mediocre Seminoles team he ranked RB12 nationally in total yards after contact and RB7 in accumulated missed tackles. In total he stockpiled 1,369 combined yards with 18 touchdowns. Again, behind one of the worst fronts among Power Five teams. Tack on his reliable hands (69 catches in three years) and he’s a legit three-down RB. More importantly, he flourished in a zone system, a similar scheme to what Los Angeles features. There’s a reason why the organization spent significant draft capital, a Round 2 pick, to secure his services.
Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown had their moments a season ago. The former, as a rookie, posted a superb 3.72 YAC per attempt and 25.5 missed tackle percentage, but over a limited 43-touch sample size. Brown, meanwhile, morphed into an occasional goal-line gremlin scoring five TDs on eight attempts. Their busts won’t have a space somewhere in Canton, but they’ll be pesky gnats circling the picnic table.
Akers, already behind the eight-ball due to unavailable access to team facilities because of COVID-19, will be pushed in training camp. Like any first-year rusher, he’ll need to quickly exhibit competency in pass pro to gain the upper hand. Still, talent is the tortoise. Slow and steady it usually wins the race.
Anywhere between 16/1 (DraftKings) to 25/1 (BetMGM) to win Offensive Rookie of the Year and falling off fantasy draft boards in the middle rounds (RB27, 55.4 ADP), he could earn investors plenty of lettuce. Bank on a quick overtake of the backfield. Roughly 1100 total yards with 6-8 total TDs is a sensible projection. Remember, Gurley compiled 120 red-zone attempts the last two years. It’s doubtful the rookie will match, but if he earns goal-line work, his TDs could exceed the aggressive above forecast.
Don’t be scared by McVay’s RBBC declaration. Chase Akers and he may just lead you to the green.
