Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Coachspeak is heroin-addictive, even more so in this preseason-less year. Inject positivity into the veins and fantasy drafters, in the timeless words of Timothy Leary, are sure to tune in, turn on and drop out. Shirtless pictures of hard-working, protein-shake shaped players are equally seducing. In an attempt to separate fact from fiction, steadfast opiner Brad Evans tosses in his two cents on recent eye-catching headlines in another edition of “Buying or B.S.?”
Raiders second-year stud Josh Jacobs wants to grab 60 passes this season
Verdict: B.S.
Cue Geto Boys classic, “Mind Playing Tricks on Me.” It’s an appropriate theme song when it comes to Jacobs’ bold goal-setting. With clenched fists, you practically have to rub away the possible deception from the eyes. Can he realistically triple his receptions output, in this offense, from a season ago?
An upsurge in catches is a strong probability. Raiders GM Mike Mayock noted during the offseason “Phase 2” of Jacobs was centered on ratcheting up the back’s presence in the pass game. However, with multidimensional rookie Lynn Bowden Jr. and Jalen Richard on roster, it’s highly unlikely Jacobs sniffs anywhere close to the ambitious total above. Vegas backs did tally 98 receptions, the eighth-most in the league last season, but also adding Henry Ruggs via the NFL draft, the most plausible scenario is Jacobs functioning as the ground-and-pound specialist, topping out at around 35-40 catches.
This doesn’t mean you should purposely avoid him in drafts. In fact, the former Alabama slammer is an ideal early-second round workhorse who’s sure to whinny for fantasy devices. Recall last season, on 64.6% of the opportunity share (20.1 touches/game), he racked 1,316 combined yards (101.6 total yards per game) and seven touchdowns, finishing RB13 in 0.5 PPR fantasy points per game. His secondary analytics were even better. He finished RB8 in yards after contact per attempt, No. 6 in total yards created and forced the highest missed tackle percentage (29.7%) of any RB. The dude doled out punishment and delivered the goods. Add in Vegas’ top-10 offensive line and generally conservative nature (45.5% run percentage in ‘19) and he’s somewhat undervalued.
Bottom line, Jacobs won’t suddenly morph into Charlie Garner 2.0, but pairing him with a upper-tiered wide receiver like a Davante Adams or Julio Jones is a quality foundation in Rounds 1-2 of any draft.
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Kyler Murray predicts Arizona will feature three 1,000-yard WRs come year’s end
Verdict: Heaping pile of B.S.
If you’re buying what Murray is selling, this swindler knows a Nigerian prince who will graciously give you free money in exchange for personal information. All it takes is one simple email, your bank account information and blood sample.
For all intents and purposes, Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid scheme was a success in its first year. It’s a pass-heavy system (58.3% pass percentage in ‘19) predicated on spacing, high-percentage short-to-intermediate throws and speed, lots and lots of speed. Murray, who knocked at door of the position’s top-five for fantasy purposes last year, excelled within it. Earning his PhD in Air Raid execution from the University of Oklahoma, he entered the year well-groomed and experienced. He underwhelmed inside the red zone (QB24 in RZ completion%), but his admirable downfield production (94.5 deep-ball passer rating) and opportunistic runs (34.0 rush yards/game) kept defenses on their toes.
Arizona did feature three 1,000-yard receivers during the Kurt Warner era. Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston each crossed the threshold in 2008. However, that season, the Hall of Fame QB, without much of a supportive ground game, chucked it 598 times and averaged 7.6 air yards per attempt. Murray, even with Kenyan Drake in tow to add balance, could inch close to 600 tosses, but his 6.6 air yards per attempt from last season warrants pause. Plus, DeAndre Hopkins is sure to hog targets, presumably surpassing 140 in the category, mitigating contributions from YPT underachiever Christian Kirk (7.2 in ‘19) and petrified wood Fitzgerald. History, too, isn’t on Kyler’s side.
The Dachshund of the Desert, reportedly bulked up, will earn his Kibbles ‘n Bits this year. He’s my QB3 for a reason. But expect final numbers in range of 4,000 passing yards, 550 rushing yards with 28 combined TDs.
Indy HC Frank Reich continues to reiterate Marlon Mack is the Colts’ starter
Verdict: Buying
When sleeveless pictures of Jonathan Taylor made the social media rounds a few days ago, fantasy libidos shifted into overdrive. The definition. The flex. The bulge. Everyone’s heightened arousal levels led to eggplant emoji overuse. A picture, in this case, was indeed worth1,000 words, but expectations for the Wisconsin product must be tempered. This is the Year of Our Ceaseless Pestilence after all, a time when COVID-19, murder hornets, zombie cicadas and, now, fire tornadoes run amok. Veterans will be featured early.
Undoubtedly, Taylor owns the skills of a future monolith. He’s impeccably constructed (5-foot-10, 226 pounds), sprints past defenders in the open field (4.39 40-yard) and steamrolls through contact (3.93 YAC/att. in ‘19 with Wisconsin). Also blessed with laser vision and decisive cuts, he routinely gashes opponents at the line of scrimmage or on second-level scampers.
Marlon Mack will be pushed, but he deserves more credit. His YAC numbers were subpar last season and he’s a liability as a receiver, but he ranked RB6 in yards created per carry and totaled 1,091 rush yards with eight touchdowns in ‘19.
Ultimately, a full-blown committee approach is inevitable in Indy, especially with Nyheim Hines a fixture on pass downs. The hot hand is sure to rule the day. Some weeks Mack will be the primary mail carrier, others will feature Taylor. It may sound unappealing, but regular double-digit carries in a conservative offense featuring an inflexible offensive line is quite attractive to any fantasy player with a functional frontal lobe. A tally around 850-900 total yards with 7-9 TDs is achievable for Mack, who is still going some 45-50 picks after the rookie in 0.5-PPR drafts.
