First DFS reaction to NFL Week 1 FanDuel salaries

FanDuel has released its pricing for Week 1 of the NFL season, and I for one cannot wait. There is so much that can happen between now and the start of the season between injuries, positional battles, line movements and more, but based on their salaries, here are my favorite guys at first glance for Week 1.

Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals

(QB6, $7,700)

Priced as QB6 with no Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson or Dak Prescott on the slate, this might be the cheapest we see Murray in all of 2020. Yes, he has a tough matchup against the 49ers, but Murray and the Cardinals gave them fits last season as he scored 23.04 and 26.7 FanDuel points in their two matchups. Where Murray took advantage against the 49ers was with his legs, rushing 13 times, combining for over 100 yards and a touchdown versus San Francisco. Now he gets stud receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who should help bring the Cardinals offense should go to the next level. Per the FTN Pace Tool, the Cardinals averaged just 0.19 points per snap in 2019, the lowest of any team in the league. They are due for more positive touchdown regression than any team in football. With a new stud receiver, and his rushing upside, Murray is too cheap regardless of the matchup. His ownership could be down as well, and he sets up for a smash play in Week 1.

Miles Sanders, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

(RB13, $6,800)

The final six games of 2019, Sanders saw five or more targets in every game. His snap share increased to a workhorse role and with the lack of outside weapons, the Eagles had to rely on the rookie back to pick up the slack. Yes, the Eagles drafted Jalen Reagor in the first round and that is sure to help, but they are staring down the barrel of a lackluster receiving group again this season. The team has been rumored to add another back, but if that doesn’t happen and it’s just Sanders and Boston Scott, Sanders is simply too cheap. As six-point road favorites against the projected worst team in the NFL (Washington), Sanders should have positive gamescript against the team that allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to backs last season.

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Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

(RB6, $7,700)

In games without Melvin Gordon last year, Ekeler finished as RB4 or better in three of four games. Now Gordon is gone to Denver and Ekeler is competing for touches with Justin Jackson and rookie Joshua Kelley. Ekeler may be the best receiving back in the league and the Chargers lean on him in this area, as he saw 108 targets last season, second-most among backs. He will be featured again in the passing game and should get the first crack at carries as well. He gets a dream matchup against a bad Bengals run defense and linebackers who simply can’t cover backs. In nine of 16 games last year, the Bengals allowed 100 or more yards to running backs on the ground and surrendered 94 targets to backs. Ekeler is 1k to cheap and has an RB1 overall ceiling in week one at an RB6 price tag.

Allen Robinson, WR, Chicago Bears

(WR8, $7,200)

Gone is Darius Slay, the one man who would make you hesitate playing a top-flight receiver against the Lions. Yes, the Lions drafted Jeffrey Okudah, and he should develop into a lockdown corner, but he is likely in store for his welcome-to-the-NFL moment when he squares off against Robinson in Week 1. Robinson’s career has been littered with awful quarterback play. From Christian Hackenberg in college to Blake Bortles in Jacksonville to Mitchell Trubisky in Chicago, believe it or not, Nick Foles is the best QB Robinson will have ever played with. Robinson was third in the NFL in targets last year, fourth in target share, and sixth in air yard market share of any receiver in the NFL. Now with more catchable targets and facing off against a rookie corner with no offseason program, Robinson is set to crush his price tag.

Marquise Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens

(WR28, $5,900)

Oh man, Brown is simply too cheap here. The highly volatile Brown has struggled with injuries, but when he’s on the field he has crushed. Last year, he ran just six routes in Week 1 and ended up with five targets and 147 receiving yards. Yards per route run is one of the most predictive statistics for receivers and he finished 25th among all receivers as a rookie with 2.25 YPRR. He is a highly dynamic, explosive playmaker who will lead all receivers on the Ravens in targets this season and coming in at a very reasonable price tag. He has another year to build with Lamar Jackson, and now healthy, he is a great GPP play Week 1.

Hayden Hurst, TE, Atlanta Falcons

(TE12, $5,200)

The Seahawks were the second-worst team in the NFL last year when it came to allowing fantasy points to the tight end position. Yes, they added Jamal Adams, but their cover 3 scheme allows for a lot of underneath pockets for the tight end to rack up catches and points. Hurst has been a career bust, but the Falcons believed in him when they traded a second-round pick for him after losing Austin Hooper. Hurst steps into Hooper's roll on the most pass-heavy team of 2019 that fed Hooper the fourth-most targets and third-most red-zone targets. Punting tight end in DFS has long been a successful strategy and Hurst is an early favorite to be a successful punt.