Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Underwhelming performances occur every season. Using ADP as a guide, this Noisey mouthpiece will attempt to project pitfalls to avoid. Ultimately, the vast majority will leave yolk on the face, but that my friends is what it means to be a member of #TeamHuevos. Below are my top LAMES at the tight end position:
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams
(ADP: TE7, 90.3)
Fancy lattes. Limitless sunshine. Ceaseless bumper-to-bumper soul-crushing traffic. Higbee 100-yard performances. Last December, these were great consistencies throughout Los Angeles.
With Gerald Everett on the sideline in sweats, the former first-round pick lived up to his promise. Surprising beat writers, coaches and fantasy players alike, he overnight shapeshifted into a legitimate TE1. Glancing at his top-five finishes in yards per route run (2.80), fantasy points per route (0.61) and total red-zone receptions (14) one would surmise he’s an irrefutable top-10 tight end. However, as the FTN Fantasy splits tool shows, that might not be the case. Sans Everett in the lineup in 2019, a 10-game sample size, he averaged a useless 3.5 receptions per game and 31.6 receiving yards per game, scoring once. Thrilling.
Since Sean McVay featured 12-personnel formations 21% of the time last fall, Higbee will have his moments. But Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods are sure to command targets. In the City of Angels, Higbee could prove to be a devil in disguise. A final tally around 50-55 receptions, 600-625 yards with 4-5 TDs is believable. And that might be pushing it.
Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers
(TE9, 98.7)
The Philip Rivers era in L.A. is over. It’s almost hard to fathom. After 16 highly caffeinated seasons, he and the entire baseball roster packed up the family truckster and headed east to Indianapolis. Maybe it’s his Kurt Warner in Arizona moment. Then again, maybe it’s Joe Montana in Kansas City.
Justin Herbert, a rough-edged big-bodied QB with a powerful downfield arm, waits in the wings. Tyrod Taylor, in his third tour of duty as a starter, will act as regent, possibly longer than most think. His solid grip on the gig isn’t a death knell for Henry. In his brief career 12.5% of his receptions have gone for touchdowns. But Rivers, in a down year last fall, ranked QB13 in adjusted completion percentage. The last time Taylor registered meaningful action, in 2018 with the Cleveland Browns, he finished QB44 in the category, dead last among passers with 100 or more dropbacks. Piling on, Charles Clay’s best finish during Taylor’s heyday in Buffalo 2015-2017 was TE18.
Candidly, Henry is light years better in baseline talent terms compared to Clay. According to the FTN air yards tool, he slotted at TE6 in total air yards and TE2 in average depth of target last season. Still, his quarterback’s short-armed tendencies don’t lend much confidence for a repeat. Expect a downturn.
Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints
(TE10, 115.4)
Maximizing his touches a season ago, Cook tallied 43 receptions for 705 yards and nine touchdowns ranking No. 1 in fantasy points per while netting a ridiculous 16.4 yards per catch. However, for the Chef Boyardee of tight ends, there’s a foodborne illness making the round in New Orleans, and its name is Emmanuel Sanders.
Cook’s accomplishments were impressive, but his minuscule 13.5% target share deflates confidence. So does the addition of Sanders, who’s sure to overtake primary slot duties from Tre'Quan Smith and wrest away precious Drew Brees looks from the tight end. Maximizing his touches, he tallied 43 receptions for 705 yards and nine touchdowns ranking No. 1 in fantasy points per while netting a ridiculous 16.4 yards per catch.
As defenses key on Michael Thomas and any number of New Orleans’ weapons, Cook will have his moments. However, his impacts as a TE1 will be few and far between. Workload is almost everything in fantasy and the veteran simply won’t have it. Point blank, he’ll finish nowhere close to the TE top-10.
