Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Underwhelming performances occur every season. Bust rates at RB1, right around 45 percent over the past decade, are the highest of the major positions. Missteps do often occur. Using ADP as a guide, this Noisey mouthpiece will attempt to project pitfalls to avoid. Ultimately, the vast majority will leave yolk on the face, but that my friends is what it means to be a member of #TeamHuevos. Below are my top LAMES at the running back position:
Todd Gurley, Atlanta Falcons
(ADP: RB17, 30.5)
Already reportedly seen walking around Falcons team facilities with a noticeable limp, Gurley and his ARTHRITIC KNEE are already firing off warning shots. Put your trust into the hands of a running back with Larry King’s lower appendages and he may sink your fantasy season.
Though colossal red-zone workloads (51 attempts in ‘19) and subsequent TD totals lifted Gurley’s fantasy profile in 2019, under the surface, his secondary analytics erosion continued. Last season with the Rams, he ranked RB35 in yards after contact per attempt (2.78) and RB39 in yards created per touch. Pin blame on L.A.’s lackluster offensive line, but watch film and it’s clear TGIII’s later agility has rapidly deteriorated. It’s why Sean McVay schemed to get the rusher downhill whenever possible. He’s still effective on north-south runs and as a pass catcher in the flat. However, similar to Steven Jackson before him, one has to wonder if Atlanta, too, is a significant step toward retirement. Maybe the lemon pepper wings at Magic City could cure him.
Without bringing in competition to push him, Gurley is fixed as the backfield captain. Undoubtedly, he’ll be rewarded with plentiful goal-to-go opportunities. However, the risks are unignorable. If you sink a third-round pick into the RB, prepare for likely disappointment. As oddsmakers suggest, 850 rushing yards with 8-9 touchdowns may be his ceiling. If you’re stabbing in the dark late, remember the name Ito Smith.
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Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
(RB18, 33.4)
Shiny New Toy Syndrome is again claiming multiple victims. It’s the inability for a fantasy drafter to stave off the irresistible allure of any rookie, no matter how unclear the path to opportunity is. Inevitably, it leads to overreaching followed by persistent second guessing, impatience and woe.
To be fair, if you were to paint a picture of the perfect running back, Taylor would be your model. He’s wonderfully built at 5-foot-10, 226 pounds, owns track-athlete speed (4.39 40-yard) and routinely barrels through contact (3.93 YAC/att with Wisconsin in ‘19) without suffering a scratch. His hands are merely average, but make no mistake, he’s the Colts running back of the future. If the Indy offensive line remains intact, Taylor will push for a rushing title within the next couple seasons. He’s that talented.
However, as Indy HC Frank Reich has repeatedly said, most recently late last week, incumbent Marlon Mack has earned every right to defend his starting spot. Colts beat writers have added a “hot hand” approach is most likely to unfold with the veteran possibly utilized in a lead-securing role. In other words, it’s possible Taylor averages 11-13 touches per game early on. Don’t forget that mighty mite Nyheim Hines will assuredly command most checkdown throws from Philip Rivers.
Don’t hate the skills, hate the situation. Taylor could easily supplant Mack as the RBBC leader at some point this season, but having to shell out a Round 3 pick is overpaying for that rosy projection. Cam Akers and D'Andre Swift are Pretty Young Things with equitable upside available some 25 picks later.
Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos
(RB15, 26.8)
Old face. New place. Optimism is a mile high in Denver. With a hotshot young quarterback and bevy of improved, but unpolished, weapons around him, Gordon’s addition is expected to bring stability, calm and heightened execution. The veteran’s battle experience and reliability thwarting on-coming blitzers are reasons why GM John Elway sought out his services.
It’s important to not overly weigh Gordon’s altitude acclimation struggles. He’s a professional athlete who’ll quickly condition and adjust. The bigger worries are twofold: 1) Phillip Lindsay’s presence, 2) The Broncos’ offensive state as a whole. Speaking to the former, the local product is still peeved by offseason decisions made. Motivated to prove doubters wrong, the two-time 1,000-yard rusher is sure to annoy and push the new arrival. Some insiders predict a 70-30 split in favor of Gordon, but in reality it could be closer to 60-40. Uncle Melvin didn’t exactly stoke the senses with his efforts in LA last season. He ranked RB50 in YAC per attempt (2.46) and RB64 in fantasy points per opportunity.
As for offensive makeup, this offseason was hellish for any organization attempting to install a new system. You can have all the Zoom sessions imaginable, but physical applying learnings is critical. Drew Lock, Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler are green. Without preseason games to iron out wrinkles in Pat Shurmur’s system, it could resemble a wadded up linen dress shirt for the first few weeks of the regular season, limiting Gordon’s scoring potential.
Bottom line, there’s not enough Sour Tsunami in Denver to convince this scribe to invest a top-15 RB pick into Gordon.
