Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Another wave of wide receiver injuries has sent fantasy football managers scrambling to the waiver wire once more. With Stefon Diggs and Christian Kirk headed for IR, people have to find replacements to patch their lineups for the rest of the way. But not you, right? You’ve been following along with the Waiver Wire Watchlist, and have been picking up useful players before everyone else started trying to grab them, yeah? No? Well, no worries – we’ll see if we can’t get you ahead of the game going forward.
This Waiver Wire Watchlist column uses Aaron Schatz’s DVOA metrics and FTN’s other advanced statistics and charting data to identify players whose short-term matchups make them compelling streamers and whose workload and efficiency trends have them poised for fantasy breakouts. And it aims to identify them a week before their breakouts. Why exhaust your FAAB or waiver priority to win the next Dobbins or Likely when you can add him now for free?
Reminder: This list was put together in the lead-in to Week 9, looking forward to the players who could be popular waiver wire targets ahead of Week 10. If you have a roster spot to play with, these are free agent options you could grab early to beat the waiver buzz.
All of these players are below 50% rostership on one of ESPN or Yahoo unless otherwise specified.
Quarterbacks
Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos (31%/50%)
Reason: Quietly Improving
Time Frame: Rest of Season
Bo Nix looked terrible though the first month of the season. From a fantasy perspective, he was averaging just 11.3 PPG. From a DVOA perspective, his -35.6% DVOA left him close to unplayable, 30th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks. He wasn’t someone you wanted within 500 yards of your fantasy team, a dink-and-dunker who could barely be trusted to accurately complete one forward pass. The thing about rookies, though, is that they ideally improve over the course of their first season, and Nix has done that quite well. Over his last four games, he’s up to 21.9 PPG with a DVOA of 12.9%, 15th in the league. If you’re worried about buying high on Nix after a four-touchdown day against the lowly Carolina Panthers, don’t worry; his advanced stats still come out with a very positive day even after adjusting for the Carolina defense, and three of his next four opponents (Baltimore, Kansas City and Atlanta) have allowed more DVOA-adjusted fantasy production than average to opposing quarterbacks. At a bare minimum, he can help you through some bye weeks over the next month.
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