Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We’re down to the last month or so in most fantasy football leagues out there, and the final push for the playoffs is on. It’s important to not let up now – while the easy pickings are gone out there, you’ve got to keep churning through that waiver wire if you’re right on the cusp of qualification, trying to figure out which late bloomers and injury replacements are going to be actual things from this point on. You’d hate to be watching the fantasy playoffs in January, knowing that that backup running back or newly anointed WR3 you chose to pass on is out there putting up double-digit points. Stay sharp!
This Waiver Wire Watchlist column uses Aaron Schatz’s DVOA metrics and FTN’s other advanced statistics and charting data to identify players whose short-term matchups make them compelling streamers and whose workload and efficiency trends have them poised for fantasy breakouts. And it aims to identify them a week before their breakouts. Why exhaust your FAAB or waiver priority to win the next JK Dobbins or Isaiah Likely when you can add him now for free?
Reminder: This list was put together in the lead-in to Week 11, looking forward to the players who could be popular waiver wire targets ahead of Week 12. If you have a roster spot to play with, these are free agent options you could grab early to beat the waiver buzz.
All of these players are below 50% rostership on one of ESPN or Yahoo unless otherwise specified.
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (39%/51%)
Reason: Opponent Schedule
Time Frame: Rest of Season
We recommended you pick up Russ last week, and he responded with a three-score day, with enough chunk plays to offset some annoying sacks and incompletions. You can’t complain too much about picking up QB10 for free! While he’s seen a significant uptick in how rostership, he’s still sitting out there in a majority of leagues, and so we’re running it back. The Steelers have yet to start their AFC North schedule, and the division isn’t the defensive powerhouse it used to be. The Bengals and Ravens rank fourth and fifth in DVOA-adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, and the Browns are hovering at right about average. That’s three-quarters of Pittsburgh’s remaining schedule, so there’s every chance Wilson continues to ride a soft schedule into fantasy relevance the rest of the way.
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