Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
We’ve reached the halfway point of the NFL regular season – and about the two-thirds mark in most fantasy football seasons. At this point, the waiver wire pickings are beginning to get a little slim on the ground. You have to turn toward some of the more volatile teams in the league; the teams at the bottom scrambling to save their season who are making changes in the hopes of somehow salvaging a lost season. While their lineup shuffling may ultimately just be shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic, staying one step ahead of the roster shuffles can give you the fantasy points you need to get into the playoffs.
This Waiver Wire Watchlist column uses Aaron Schatz’s DVOA metrics and FTN’s other advanced statistics and charting data to identify players whose short-term matchups make them compelling streamers and whose workload and efficiency trends have them poised for fantasy breakouts. And it aims to identify them a week before their breakouts. Why exhaust your FAAB or waiver priority to win the next Dobbins or Likely when you can add him now for free?
Reminder: This list was put together in the lead-in to Week 10, looking forward to the players who could be popular waiver wire targets ahead of Week 11. If you have a roster spot to play with, these are free agent options you could grab early to beat the waiver buzz.
All of these players are below 50% rostership on one of ESPN or Yahoo unless otherwise specified.
Quarterbacks
Russell Wilson, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (18%/30%)
Reason: Opponent Schedule
Time Frame: Weeks 10-14
The return of Russ to being a fantasy-relevant player has been fun to watch. In Weeks 7-8, his two starts so far, Wilson led the league with 195 DYAR on deep passes, his touch and connection with George Pickens standing out compared to what we saw from the Steelers offense through the first six weeks of the season. Justin Fields’ high-water mark for deep pass DYAR over any two-week stretch this year was just 79 DYAR, so this is a new element to Pittsburgh’s offense – and a great addition for fantasy purposes. Adding Mike Williams to the mix won’t hurt either, though it’s a less exciting addition than some of the other names the Steelers have been linked to over the past year. What puts Russ over the top as a target, however, is the relatively soft schedule of opposing defenses he gets to close out the regular fantasy season. Baltimore, Washington and Cincinnati all allow higher than average DVOA-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks, and Cleveland is hovering right around 0% — not bad for the worst matchup on the slate. You can get some mad bomber value out of Russ before the schedule really picks up.
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