Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
(Leading up to the 2021 NFL season, FTN’s Tyler Loechner will dive into the fantasy football numbers to bring you his Fantasy Stat of the Day, five days a week.)
Knowledge is power. So are end zone targets.
13% of all fantasy receiving points are scored on passes that are thrown when the receiver is in the end zone. In fact, more total fantasy points are scored on end-zone targets than on targets where the receiver is anywhere from the 1- to 10-yard line — combined.
| Distance From EZ | Targets | Rec. FPs | % of all Rec. FPs |
| 0 | 1539 | 4252 | 13% |
| 1 | 154 | 647 | 2% |
| 2 | 136 | 410 | 1% |
| 3 | 99 | 240 | 1% |
| 4 | 121 | 313 | 1% |
| 5 | 233 | 466 | 1% |
| 6 | 96 | 271 | 1% |
| 7 | 114 | 259 | 1% |
| 8 | 105 | 222 | 1% |
| 9 | 125 | 222 | 1% |
| 10 | 242 | 412 | 1% |
And when it came to end zone targets in 2020, two teammates towered over the rest.
Rob Gronkowski and Mike Evans actually can coexist as top red zone targets
Calvin Ridley an Adam Thielen paced the league with 23 end zone targets in 2020. But shortly behind them were two pairs of teammates: DK Metcalf (18) and Tyler Lockett (16), and Rob Gronkowski (17) and Mike Evans (15).
| player | pos | tgt | ezTgt | % |
| Adam Thielen | WR | 116 | 23 | 19.8% |
| Calvin Ridley | WR | 153 | 23 | 15.0% |
| DK Metcalf | WR | 137 | 18 | 13.1% |
| Davante Adams | WR | 155 | 17 | 11.0% |
| Rob Gronkowski | TE | 85 | 17 | 20.0% |
| Nelson Agholor | WR | 95 | 17 | 17.9% |
| Tyler Lockett | WR | 139 | 16 | 11.5% |
| Allen Robinson | WR | 157 | 16 | 10.2% |
| Mike Evans | WR | 122 | 15 | 12.3% |
| Tyreek Hill | WR | 139 | 15 | 10.8% |
| Mike Williams | WR | 93 | 15 | 16.1% |
| T.Y. Hilton | WR | 107 | 15 | 14.0% |
| Michael Gallup | WR | 113 | 15 | 13.3% |
| DeVante Parker | WR | 113 | 15 | 13.3% |
The teammate duo of Metcalf and Lockett combined for more EZ targets than Gronkowski and Evans, but there are many more mouths to feed in Tampa Bay, so that’s where we’ll focus for this article.
Among players with at least 50 targets, Gronkowski’s 20% end zone target rate was highest in the league. Meanwhile, Evans saw an end zone target on 12.3% of his looks.
The fact both Gronkowski and Evans were able to secure so many end zone targets while playing with so many other talented players — Antonio Brown (late in the season), Chris Godwin, Cameron Brate, O.J. Howard (early in the season) to name a few — is an impressive feat.
In the end, no other Bucs players saw even half as many end zone targets as Gronkowski or Evans. Godwin was next-closest with eight.
When Tom Brady and Gronkowski joined the Buccaneers, there were all sorts of questions about who would benefit and who would be hurt. A common consensus was the Evans would be the one to take the biggest blow with Gronkowski being such a good red zone threat.
It turns out that wasn’t true. There’s enough room in Tampa for both.
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