Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to the Week 10 fantasy football start/sit column, where I have detailed which players you should start and sit this week based on their recent trends, matchups, and other game contexts.
- Players are labeled as starts if I rank them better than the consensus and sits if I rank them worse than the consensus, but consider your specific league contexts to make your start and sit decisions.
- The positional rankings and fantasy point totals rely on half PPR scoring.
- The consensus rankings refer to the FantasyPros expert consensus.
- You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.
Week 10 Start/Sit: Quarterbacks
Tom Brady, Bucs vs. Seahawks in Munich (56 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 9th, +1 vs. consensus (10th)
+ Efficiency: Tom Brady has thrown just 10 touchdowns but has 18.68 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 8.68-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars at Chiefs (38 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 13th, +1 vs. consensus (14th)
+ Efficiency: Trevor Lawrence has thrown just 11 touchdowns but has 14.17 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that seventh biggest 3.17-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: Lawrence has faced the hardest schedule of pass defenses that on average have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.11 per game and should have an easier schedule starting this week.
+ Opponent: The Chiefs have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.40 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Derek Carr, Raiders vs. Colts (Dome)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 14th, +1 vs. consensus (15th)
+ Efficiency: Derek Carr has thrown just 11 touchdowns but has 13.28 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.28-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Opponent: The Colts have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.38 per game in 2022, tied for second most in football.
Russell Wilson, Broncos at Titans (41 degrees and sunny)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 16th, +1 vs. consensus (17th)
+ Efficiency: Russell Wilson has thrown just 6 touchdowns but has 11.18 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that third biggest 5.18-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Titans have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.26 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Matthew Stafford, Rams vs. Cardinals (Dome)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 18th, +2 vs. consensus (20th)
+ Venue: Matthew Stafford has averaged 1.7 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons.
+ Efficiency: Stafford has thrown just 8 touchdowns but has 14.35 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that second biggest 6.35-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: Stafford has faced the fifth-hardest schedule of pass defenses that on average have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.09 per game and should have an easier schedule starting this week.
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.20 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Dak Prescott, Cowboys at Packers (32 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 10th, -2 vs. consensus (8th)
– Venue: Dak Prescott has averaged 3.7 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons.
Kirk Cousins, Vikings at Bills (39 degrees with moderate winds and an 57% chance of rain and snow)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 15th, -2 vs. consensus (13th)
– Venue: Kirk Cousins has averaged 2.4 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons.
– Volume: Cold temperatures, moderate forecasted winds and a 57% chance of rain and snow will likely skew the Vikings’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Opponent: Cousins has faced the eighth easiest schedule of pass defenses that on average have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.05 per game and should have a harder schedule starting this week.
+ Efficiency: Cousins has thrown just 13 touchdowns but has 15.83 expected passing touchdowns in 2022, and that eighth biggest 2.83-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers vs. Cowboys (32 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 20th, -1 vs. consensus (19th)
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.38 per game in 2022, tied for second most in football.
+ Venue: Aaron Rodgers has averaged 1.6 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road the last two-plus seasons.
Week 10 Start/Sit: Running Backs
Antonio Gibson, Commanders at Eagles (38 degrees and clear)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 24th, +1 vs. consensus (25th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Antonio Gibson for 15.3 carries + targets this week — assuming J.D. McKissic is out — 19th at his position (he has averaged 14.0 carries + targets the last three weeks and should see more receiving work assuming J.D. McKissic misses more time with his neck injury).
Khalil Herbert, Bears vs. Lions (34 degrees and sunny)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 28th, +1 vs. consensus (27th)
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.67 per game in 2022, the most in football.
– Efficiency: Herbert has 5 touchdowns but has just 4.11 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 0.89-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Efficiency: Herbert ranks sixth with 1.26 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate fall the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.
Brian Robinson, Commanders at Eagles (38 degrees and clear)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 32nd, +3 vs. consensus (35th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Brian Robinson for 15.0 carries + targets this week, 21st at his position (he has averaged 15.5 carries + targets since he became a starter in Week 6).
Chuba Hubbard, Panthers vs. Falcons (64 degrees with moderate forecasted winds and a 70% chance of rain)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 39th, +4 vs. consensus (43rd)
+ Volume: I am projecting Chuba Hubbard for 14.3 carries + targets this week, 26th at his position (he saw 12 carries + targets and played 46% of snaps versus 17 and 54% for D’Onta Foreman in Week 7 but was pacing the backfield before an ankle injury forced him out with 12 minutes left in the fourth quarter and yielded the last nine carries to Foreman).
+ Volume: Moderate forecasted winds and a 70% chance of rain will likely skew the Panthers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Opponent: The Falcons have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.45 per game in 2022, third most in football.
– Efficiency: Hubbard has run in 1 touchdown but has just 0.14 expected rushing touchdowns in 2022, and that 0.86-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Jaylen Warren, Steelers vs. Saints (42 degrees with moderate winds and an 49% chance of light rain)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 43rd, +4 vs. consensus (47th)
+ Volume: Cold temperatures, moderate forecasted winds and a 49% chance of light rain will likely skew the Steelers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Cam Akers, Rams vs. Cardinals (Dome)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 49th, +4 vs. consensus (53rd)
+ Volume: I am projecting Cam Akers for 6.6 carries + targets this week, 44th at his position (he saw 5 carries + targets in Week 9 in his return from a four-week non-injury absence and seems poised to see his workload increase with that return to the team).
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.42 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Tony Pollard, Cowboys at Packers (32 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 21st, -4 vs. consensus (17th)
– Volume: I am projecting Tony Pollard for 13.8 carries + targets this week — assuming Ezekiel Elliott plays — tied for 27th at his position (he has averaged 12.1 carries + targets in his seven games with a healthy Elliott this season).
– Efficiency: Pollard has 5 touchdowns but has just 2.69 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.31-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
– Efficiency: Pollard ranks seventh with 1.19 net stolen touchdowns in 2022 and will likely see his rushing touchdown rate fall the rest of the season with more balance in the red zone.
Raheem Mostert, Dolphins vs. Browns (81 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 29th, -5 vs. consensus (24th)
– Volume: I am projecting Raheem Mostert for 11.9 carries + targets this week, tied for 31st at his position (he saw 11 carries + targets and played 47% of snaps vs. 12 and 49% for Jeff Wilson in Week 9).
+ Opponent: The Browns have increased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.20 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
AJ Dillon, Packers vs. Cowboys (32 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 30th, -2 vs. consensus (28th)
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.39 per game in 2022, second most in football.
+ Efficiency: AJ Dillon has just 1 touchdown but has just 3.70 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.70-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Melvin Gordon, Broncos at Titans (41 degrees and sunny)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 36th, -2 vs. consensus (35th)
– Opponent: The Titans have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.38 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Latavius Murray, Broncos at Titans (41 degrees and sunny)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 42nd, -2 vs. consensus (40th)
– Opponent: The Titans have decreased expected rushing touchdowns by 0.38 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Week 10 Start/Sit: Wide Receivers
Terry McLaurin, Commanders at Eagles (38 degrees and clear)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 21st, +4 vs. consensus (25th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Terry McLaurin for 9.1 targets this week, 12th at his position (he has averaged 8.3 targets the last three weeks with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback).
Joshua Palmer, Chargers at 49ers (55 degrees and clear)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 22nd, +2 vs. consensus (24th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Joshua Palmer for 10.0 targets this week, 10th at his position (he has averaged 7.7 targets in six games in 2022 with Keenan Allen sidelined and saw 10 targets in Week 9 with Mike Williams also out).
Jerry Jeudy, Broncos at Titans (41 degrees and sunny)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 26th, +1 vs. consensus (27th)
+ Opponent: The Titans have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.26 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Diontae Johnson, Steelers vs. Saints (42 degrees with moderate winds and an 49% chance of light rain)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 27th, +3 vs. consensus (30th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Diontae Johnson for 10.3 targets this week, tied for eighth at his position (he has averaged 9.5 targets in 2022 and should see a target share increase after the Chase Claypool trade).
+ Efficiency: Johnson has not caught a touchdown but has 3.10 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that second biggest 3.10-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
– Volume: Cold temperatures, moderate forecasted winds and a 49% chance of light rain will likely skew the Steelers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Courtland Sutton, Broncos at Titans (41 degrees and sunny)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 30th, +1 vs. consensus (31st)
+ Efficiency: Courtland Sutton has caught just 1 touchdown but has 4.00 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that third biggest 3.00-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Titans have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.26 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
George Pickens, Steelers vs. Saints (42 degrees with moderate winds and an 49% chance of light rain)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 32nd, +3 vs. consensus (35th)
+ Volume: I am projecting George Pickens for 8.2 targets this week, 20th at his position (he has averaged 6.3 targets since Week 3 and should see a target share increase after the Chase Claypool trade).
– Volume: Cold temperatures, moderate forecasted winds and a 49% chance of light rain will likely skew the Steelers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Terrace Marshall, Panthers vs. Falcons (64 degrees with moderate forecasted winds and a 70% chance of rain)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 37th, +2 vs. consensus (39th)
+ Opponent: The Falcons have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.28 per game in 2022, fifth most in football.
– Volume: Moderate forecasted winds and a 70% chance of rain will likely skew the Panthers’ pass/run balance toward the run.
Zay Jones, Jaguars at Chiefs (38 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 39th, +1 vs. consensus (40th)
+ Efficiency: Jones has caught just 1 touchdown but has 2.63 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.63-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Chiefs have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.40 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Browns at Dolphins (81 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 40th, +1 vs. consensus (41st)
+ Efficiency: Peoples-Jones has not caught a touchdown but has 2.05 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 2.05-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Allen Robinson, Rams vs. Cardinals (Dome)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 42nd, +1 vs. consensus (43rd)
+ Efficiency: Allen Robinson has caught just 2 touchdowns but has 5.17 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 3.17-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.20 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Marvin Jones, Jaguars at Chiefs (38 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 49th, +2 vs. consensus (47th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Marvin Jones for 5.7 targets this week, 43rd at his position (he has averaged 5.9 targets in 2022).
+ Opponent: The Chiefs have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.40 per game in 2022, third most in football.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chiefs vs. Jaguars (38 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 47th, +1 vs. consensus (48th)
+ Efficiency: Valdes-Scantling has not caught a touchdown but has 1.46 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.46-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers vs. Chargers (55 degrees and clear)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 23rd, -2 vs. consensus (21st)
– Volume: I am projecting Brandon Aiyuk for 6.7 targets this week — assuming Deebo Samuel plays — 32nd at his position (he has averaged 6.9 targets in 2022 and will likely face greater target competition after the Christian McCaffrey trade).
– Efficiency: Aiyuk has caught 4 touchdowns but has just 1.81 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fifth biggest 2.19-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Chargers have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.19 per game in 2022, ninth most in football.
Allen Lazard, Packers vs. Cowboys (32 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 24th, -2 vs. consensus (22nd)
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.38 per game in 2022, tied for second most in football.
Gabe Davis, Bills vs. Vikings (39 degrees with moderate winds and an 57% chance of rain and snow)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 25th, -2 vs. consensus (23rd)
– Volume: I am projecting Gabe Davis for 6.1 targets this week, tied for 34th at his position (he has averaged 5.4 targets in 2022).
– Volume: Cold temperatures, moderate forecasted winds and a 57% chance of rain and snow will likely skew the Bills’ pass/run balance toward the run.
– Efficiency: Davis has caught 4 touchdowns but has just 1.77 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fourth biggest 2.23-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Darnell Mooney, Bears vs. Lions (34 degrees and sunny)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 33rd, -5 vs. consensus (28th)
– Volume: I am projecting Darnell Mooney for 5.5 targets this week, 45th at his position (he has averaged 5.8 targets in 2022 and will likely face greater target competition after the Chase Claypool trade).
+ Efficiency: Mooney has caught just 1 touchdown but has 2.31 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.31-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.30 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Adam Thielen, Vikings at Bills (39 degrees with moderate winds and an 57% chance of rain and snow)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 35th, -1 vs. consensus (34th)
– Volume: Cold temperatures, moderate forecasted winds and a 57% chance of rain and snow will likely skew the Vikings’ pass/run balance toward the run.
+ Volume: I am projecting Adam Thielen for 7.6 targets this week, tied for 22nd at his position (he has averaged 7.1 targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: Thielen has caught just 2 touchdowns but has 3.22 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 1.22-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
Mecole Hardman, Chiefs vs. Jaguars (38 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 41st, -4 vs. consensus (37th)
– Volume: I am projecting Mecole Hardman for 4.6 targets this week, tied for 52nd at his position (he has averaged 4.3 targets in 2022 and will likely face greater target competition after the Kadarius Toney trade).
– Efficiency: Hardman has 6 touchdowns but has just 2.85 expected rushing and receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 3.15-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
Week 10 Start/Sit: Tight Ends
Tyler Higbee, Rams vs. Cardinals (Dome)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 10th, +1 vs. consensus (11th)
+ Efficiency: Tyler Higbee has not caught a touchdown but has 2.08 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that position-leading 2.08-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have allowed 16.4 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, second most in football.
+ Opponent: The Cardinals have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.20 per game in 2022, eighth most in football.
Evan Engram, Jaguars at Chiefs (38 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 12th, +1 vs. consensus (13th)
+ Volume: I am projecting Evan Engram for 5.4 targets this week, 10th at his position (he has averaged 5.2 targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: Engram has caught just 1 touchdown but has 1.79 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that 0.79-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Chiefs have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.40 per game in 2022, third most in football.
David Njoku, Browns at Dolphins (81 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 15th, +9 vs. consensus (24th — this reflects that some rankers have not ranked Njoku because of the uncertainty of his ankle injury)
+ Volume: I am projecting David Njoku for 4.8 targets this week, 15th at his position (he has averaged 6.0 targets in 2022).
+ Efficiency: Njoku has caught just 1 touchdown but has 2.30 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that third biggest 1.30-touchdown shortfall should regress positively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Dolphins have allowed 12.8 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, fifth most in football.
Greg Dulcich, Broncos at Titans (41 degrees and sunny)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 13th, -6 vs. consensus (7th)
– Volume: I am projecting Greg Dulcich for 5.3 targets this week, tied for 11th at his position (he has averaged 5.7 targets since his return from injured reserve in Week 6).
+ Opponent: The Titans have allowed 11.9 average fantasy points per game to tight ends in 2022, sixth most in football.
+ Opponent: The Titans have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.26 per game in 2022, sixth most in football.
Cole Kmet, Bears vs. Lions (34 degrees and sunny)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 16th, -2 vs. consensus (14th)
– Efficiency: Cole Kmet has caught 3 touchdowns but has just 1.37 expected receiving touchdowns in 2022, and that fourth biggest 1.63-touchdown surplus should regress negatively the rest of the season.
+ Opponent: The Lions have increased expected passing touchdowns by 0.30 per game in 2022, fourth most in football.
Robert Tonyan, Packers vs. Cowboys (32 degrees and partly cloudy)
Week 10 Positional Ranking: 18th, -2 vs. consensus (16th)
– Opponent: The Cowboys have decreased expected passing touchdowns by 0.38 per game in 2022, tied for second most in football.
