Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
An injection of new running quarterbacks and a consolidation of skill talent on the Texans and Bears make for some difficult fantasy football start/sit calls in Week 1. But my weekly start and sit column should help you with whatever player versus player calls you need to make with its leaning on my comprehensive weekly fantasy projections. Best of luck in Week 1 and in all of 2024!
The positional rankings and projected fantasy point totals rely on half-PPR scoring. The listed start/sit calls assume a 12-team league with 2 running back, 3 wide receiver, 1 tight end, and 1 flex starting lineup spots. If your league is different, I recommend you start my higher ranked players over my lower ranked players.
You can find my weekly rankings and those of other FTN writers here.
Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 1
Quarterbacks
5. Joe Burrow, CIN vs. NE: 37.0-272-1.81-0.70 and 2.7-9-0.16 = 18.6
6. Kyler Murray, ARZ at BUF: 35.7-237-1.39-0.71 and 5.1-30-0.29 = 18.3
7. C.J. Stroud, HST at IND: 35.9-288-1.54-0.61 and 2.1-8-0.11 = 18.0
8. Trevor Lawrence, JAX at MIA
36.4-257-1.64-0.84 and 3.4-17-0.19 = 17.9
Lawrence has suffered 13 drops on pass attempts thrown into the red zone the last two seasons, the second most in football. His 1.64 projected passing touchdowns are 12th most in Week 1 and pro-rate to a career-high 28 passing scores over the full season.
9. Dak Prescott, DAL at CLV
36.1-269-1.71-0.76 and 2.6-12-0.10 = 17.8
Prescott has averaged 5.2 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road in recent seasons, the second most extreme split at his position. Even after a top three fantasy season, Prescott is a back-end QB1 on the road in Cleveland in Week 1.
10. Jordan Love, GB at PHI
34.5-251-1.79-0.73 and 2.5-11-0.12 = 17.6
Love jumped from 215 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns per game in the first half to 271 yards and 2.2 touchdowns per game in the second half of 2023. With maybe the best receiving talent in football, Love should be a fantasy starter whether he runs more in 2024 or not.
11. Jared Goff, DET vs. LA
35.0-263-1.86-0.60 and 1.7-2-0.06 = 17.3
Goff has averaged 6.1 more fantasy points per game at home than on the road in his Lions tenure, the most extreme split at his position. Start him when he’s at home in 2024, beginning this week against his old Rams team.
12. Anthony Richardson, IND vs. HST
31.3-218-1.16-0.78 and 5.9-32-0.38 = 17.3
Richardson will likely regress from his position-leading 0.71 fantasy points per dropback from an abbreviated 2023 season. But his 0.38 projected rushing touchdowns are third most at the position this week and help him clear the QB1 benchmark.
13. Brock Purdy, SF vs. NYJ
29.1-254-1.66-0.64 and 2.5-9-0.11 = 17.1
Purdy’s 9.68 expected touchdown surplus was easily the highest among quarterbacks in 2023. That surplus is somewhat a feature of Kyle Shanahan’s YAC-promoting offensive scheme. But even if he sees modest touchdown regression, Purdy could lose his QB1 standing without the rushing boost of his more mobile contemporaries.
14. Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. JAX
33.1-266-1.72-0.79 and 1.9-5-0.05 = 16.7
Tagovailoa has a similar fantasy situation to Purdy. His 1.72 projected passing touchdowns are seventh most in Week 1, but he barely misses the QB1 threshold with his modest rushing contributions.
15. Jayden Daniels, WAS at TB
31.8-221-1.18-0.83 and 5.4-29-0.30 = 16.6
I am projecting Daniels for a 25.5% carry share that is sixth highest among quarterbacks in Week 1, but there is a lot of a guesswork in that projection. Feel free to start the rookie if you have higher rushing expectations.
16. Justin Herbert, LAC vs. LV: 35.2-242-1.65-0.60 and 2.1-8-0.11 = 16.6
17. Matthew Stafford, LA at DET: 35.2-266-1.73-0.74 and 1.0-3-0.03 = 16.5
18. Caleb Williams, CHI vs. TEN: 35.8-251-1.43-0.86 and 3.0-14-0.13 = 16.3
19. Kirk Cousins, ATL vs. PIT: 36.2-263-1.59-0.69 and 1.2-3-0.07 = 16.2
20. Geno Smith, SEA vs. DEN: 34.9-254-1.54-0.70 and 2.0-9-0.04 = 16.1
21. Aaron Rodgers, NYJ at SF: 34.2-242-1.71-0.65 and 1.2-3-0.07 = 15.9
22. Daniel Jones, NYG vs. MIN: 32.3-209-1.13-0.74 and 5.1-28-0.16 = 15.2
Running Backs
20. Raheem Mostert, MIA vs. JAX: 12.8-61-0.50 and 2.2-1.7-12-0.07 = 11.5
21. Javonte Williams, DEN at SEA: 12.7-54-0.33 and 3.9-3.1-18-0.10 = 11.3
22. Devin Singletary, NYG vs. MIN: 13.2-57-0.36 and 3.2-2.5-17-0.07 = 11.2
23. Jerome Ford, CLV vs. DAL: 13.9-55-0.36 and 3.3-2.4-17-0.10 = 11.2
24. Tony Pollard, TEN at CHI: 12.2-52-0.34 and 3.5-2.8-18-0.10 = 11.0
25. D’Andre Swift, CHI vs. TEN: 11.3-52-0.33 and 3.6-2.8-18-0.10 = 11.0
26. Rhamondre Stevenson, NE at CIN: 13.5-57-0.35 and 3.0-2.3-15-0.06 = 10.8
27. David Montgomery, DET vs. LA: 13.1-59-0.52 and 1.5-1.1-9-0.03 = 10.6
28. Zack Moss, CIN vs. NE: 12.2-54-0.38 and 2.7-2.0-14-0.07 = 10.4
29. Jaylen Warren, PIT at ATL
8.9-44-0.22 and 4.1-3.3-22-0.08 = 10.1
Warren led regular running backs with both his 30.9% avoided tackle rate and 3.3 yards after contact per attempt in 2023. He probably earned a bigger piece of what could be a bigger Steelers rushing pie with Arthur Smith at offensive coordinator, and I would risk a Warren Week 1 flex start if he can play with his recent hamstring injury.
30. Brian Robinson Jr., WAS at TB
12.0-52-0.34 and 2.1-1.7-14-0.07 = 9.9
Robinson has averaged 1.65 yards before contact per attempt the last two seasons, tied for fourth lowest among heavy-volume backs. Jayden Daniels should make his life much easier in 2024.
31. Chuba Hubbard, CAR at NO
13.0-52-0.34 and 2.4-2.0-14-0.05 = 9.8
With top rookie running back pick Jonathon Brooks on the PUP list, I am projecting Hubbard for a 48.5% carry share that is tied for 19th highest at his position in Week 1. You can start him with confidence for the first month of the season.
32. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL at CLV
11.8-47-0.33 and 3.0-2.3-15-0.07 = 9.8
Cowboys reporter Todd Archer expects Rico Dowdle to lead the team in carries this season, and I plan to pivot quickly if he sees the lion’s share of the Week 1 carries. But for now, I have Elliott with a 42.5% versus 38.5% projected carry share advantage and would start the veteran this week in a roster pinch.
33. Austin Ekeler, WAS at TB
8.9-40-0.28 and 3.5-2.6-20-0.10 = 9.5
Ekeler edged his Commanders predecessor Antonio Gibson with a 56.0% versus 50.4% route participation rate and lapped his new teammate Brian Robinson’s 39.9% rate in 2023. He may not be a featured back anymore, but Ekeler’s 11.5% projected target share is tied for 14th highest at his position in Week 1 and pulls him above the flex starter benchmark.
34. Tyjae Spears, TEN at CHI
8.8-39-0.22 and 3.7-2.8-20-0.09 = 9.2
Spears flirted with flex value in 2023 thanks to a 14.6% target share that was eighth highest at his position. I’m bullish on a Tony Pollard bounceback, but Spears is a modest workload bump away from fantasy starter status.
35. Najee Harris, PIT at ATL
12.0-48-0.35 and 2.1-1.6-10-0.05 = 9.0
A bottom-10 rate of 1.25 yards before contact per attempt sabotaged Harris’ bid for an RB2 season in 2023. And unless his teammate Jaylen Warren misses time, Harris could suffer similarly to start 2024. The Steelers lost two expected offensive line starters in the preseason in Isaac Seumalo and Nate Herbig, the latter to injured reserve.
36. Gus Edwards, LAC vs. LV
11.6-49-0.43 and 1.1-0.8-7-0.02 = 8.7
Edwards ranked bottom 10 among regular backs with a 33.8% route participation rate in 2023. He needed his position-leading 23 carries inside the 5-yard line to support his flex value, and he may see fewer on a new Chargers team in 2024 — especially to start after he missed the preseason with an undisclosed injury.
37. J.K. Dobbins, LAC vs. LV
10.3-46-0.29 and 2.0-1.5-10-0.05 = 8.3
If his teammate Edwards missed Week 1, then Dobbins would be a slam-dunk fantasy starter. But with a split projected 41.5% carry share that is tied for 33rd at his position in Week 1, Dobbins falls just short of flex value. Keep him on your bench while we see how the Chargers divide their backfield work this week.
38. Antonio Gibson, NE at CIN
7.8-31-0.21 and 3.3-2.6-20-0.09 = 8.3
Gibson and his new teammate Rhamondre Stevenson saw similar 50.4% and 47.6% route participation rates in 2023. I wouldn’t assume Gibson will see every third-down target. I am projecting him for a 10.5% target share in Week 1, tied for just 20th at his position.
39. Zamir White, LV at LAC
11.2-48-0.28 and 1.8-1.4-9-0.04 = 8.2
White teased the potential for a featured role with a 67.5% snap share the last four weeks of 2023. But he didn’t see that usage in a retooled Raiders backfield this preseason, and I am projecting him for a split role with a 45.5% Week 1 carry share versus 34.5% and 8.5% rates for Alexander Mattison and Dylan Laube.
40. Ty Chandler, MIN at NYG: 10.3-45-0.27 and 2.0-1.6-11-0.04 = 8.2
41. Rico Dowdle, DAL at CLV: 9.2-38-0.26 and 2.7-2.0-14-0.07 = 8.2
42. Zach Charbonnet, SEA vs. DEN: 8.0-34-0.24 and 2.6-2.1-14-0.06 = 7.7
43. Miles Sanders, CAR at NO: 10.1-41-0.27 and 1.7-1.2-8-0.03 = 7.3
44. Jaleel McLaughlin, DEN at SEA: 5.9-28-0.14 and 3.3-2.7-16-0.08 = 7.1
45. Chase Brown, CIN vs. NE: 7.6-32-0.19 and 1.9-1.5-12-0.05 = 6.6
46. Tyler Allgeier, ATL vs. PIT: 7.8-32-0.20 and 1.6-1.3-10-0.04 = 6.2
47. Alexander Mattison, LV at LAC: 8.5-34-0.23 and 1.3-1.0-6-0.04 = 6.1
48. Jamaal Williams, NO vs. CAR: 6.9-25-0.24 and 1.3-1.0-6-0.03 = 5.2
49. Bucky Irving, TB vs. WAS: 5.4-24-0.15 and 1.7-1.4-10-0.05 = 5.2
50. D’Onta Foreman, CLV vs. DAL: 7.0-29-0.22 and 0.7-0.5-3-0.02 = 4.9
51. Braelon Allen, NYJ at SF: 6.9-29-0.21 and 0.6-0.5-3-0.02 = 4.8
52. Blake Corum, LA at DET: 6.4-27-0.18 and 0.9-0.7-5-0.02 = 4.8
Wide Receivers
22. DeVonta Smith, PHI vs. GB: 7.3-5.1-67-0.34 = 11.3
23. Stefon Diggs, HST at IND: 8.2-5.4-63-0.37 = 11.3
24. DK Metcalf, SEA vs. DEN: 7.5-4.4-64-0.43 = 11.2
25. Marvin Harrison Jr., ARZ at BUF: 7.8-5.0-62-0.39 = 11.0
26. Diontae Johnson, CAR at NO: 8.4-5.0-63-0.38 = 11.0
27. Michael Pittman, IND vs. HST: 8.2-5.7-61-0.31 = 10.8
28. Amari Cooper, CLV vs. DAL: 7.3-4.3-67-0.32 = 10.7
29. Terry McLaurin, WAS at TB: 7.9-4.9-64-0.31 = 10.7
30. Christian Kirk, JAX at MIA: 7.3-4.7-62-0.32 = 10.4
31. George Pickens, PIT at ATL: 6.9-4.1-65-0.30 = 10.4
32. Zay Flowers, BLT at KC: 6.9-4.8-58-0.33 = 10.3
33. Courtland Sutton, DEN at SEA: 6.9-4.4-57-0.36 = 10.0
34. Calvin Ridley, TEN at CHI: 7.5-4.3-57-0.34 = 9.9
35. Jakobi Meyers, LV at LAC
6.7-4.5-53-0.35 = 9.7
Meyers saw a sneaky 20.9% target share in 2023 that was 36th at his position. Rookie tight end Brock Bowers is a potential wrench, but I am projecting Meyers for a similar 21.0% share in Week 1 and would start him.
36. Chris Godwin, TB vs. WAS
7.1-4.7-55-0.29 = 9.6
Godwin saw a WR2 target share of 23.6% in 2023, tied for 22nd among wide receivers. A shift back to more slot work and better touchdown luck should return him to his former fantasy starter status.
37. Tyler Lockett, SEA vs. DEN
6.7-4.4-52-0.32 = 9.3
Lockett has been a WR2 fixture since 2018. But the veteran receiver has declined from 2.5 yards per route run in 2021 to 2.0 and 1.7 the last two years since turning 30 years old. I have him as a flex starter in Week 1. But his hold on that ranking is tenuous with an ascending Jaxon Smith-Njigba playing beside him.
38. Tank Dell, HST at IND
6.0-3.8-52-0.31 = 9.2
I’m a major believer in Dell’s talent. But the Texans’ Stefon Diggs addition seems likely to eat into Diggs’, Dell’s, and Nico Collins’ target shares this season. I am projecting Dell for a 17.5% target share in Week 1 that is tied for 50th among wide receivers. I would be fine starting him, but you might have better options.
39. Christian Watson, GB at PHI
6.2-3.6-50-0.34 = 9.0
Watson saw 1.56 end zone targets per game 2023, the highest rate among wide receivers with four or more games played. I’m eager to start him in fantasy this season, but it wouldn’t be the worst idea to wait a week and see how he fits into a loaded Packers receiver room. I am projecting Watson for an 18.5% target share that is tied for 44th at his position in Week 1.
40. Josh Palmer, LAC vs. LV
6.3-4.0-53-0.26 = 8.9
The Chargers receiver depth chart may be my biggest Week 1 blind spot. I am projecting Palmer, Ladd McConkey, DJ Chark — assuming he plays — and Quentin Johnston for relatively bunched 18.5%, 23.0%, 13.5% and 10.5% target shares and would prefer to watch what happens in Week 1 before I started any of them in typical fantasy leagues.
41. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA vs. DEN
6.5-4.3-47-0.29 = 8.6
I am projecting the veteran Tyler Lockett to edge his younger teammate with a 20.0% versus a 19.5% target share in Week 1. But the Seahawks averaged a meager 58.5 offensive plays per game in 2023, the lowest in football and 4.6 fewer than an average team. Smith-Njigba will be one of the many Seahawks boats that rises if new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb pushes pace relative to his predecessor Shane Waldron.
42. Mike Williams, NYJ at SF
5.6-3.8-50-0.28 = 8.6
I am projecting Williams for a 17.0% target share that is tied for just 52nd among receivers in Week 1. But I expect the veteran to ramp up over the next month or two as he continues to recover from his 2023 ACL tear.
43. Malik Nabers, NYG vs. MIN
6.1-3.8-49-0.28 = 8.5
I am projecting the talented rookie Nabers for a 26.5% target share that is tied for 12th highest at his position in Week 1. But my projection system regresses target shares above established baselines. And on a traditionally pass-averse Giants team, that regression knocks Nabers below the flex starter baseline. Feel free to start him if you’re more bullish.
44. Brandin Cooks, DAL at CLV
5.9-3.9-47-0.30 = 8.5
Cooks saw a modest 14.3% target share in 2023, barely top 70 at his position. He lived and died in fantasy by his eight touchdowns. And like his quarterback Dak Prescott, I am much more excited to start Cooks at home than on the road.
45. Khalil Shakir, BUF vs. ARZ
5.0-3.8-51-0.25 = 8.5
The Bills wide receiver pecking order is ambiguous. But Shakir led wide receivers with a 55.0% receiving DVOA in 2023. He could do some damage in fantasy even with a 15.5% projected target share that is outside of the top 60 receivers in Week 1. And he could threaten flex status if his new teammate Curtis Samuel missed the week with his turf toe injury.
46. Jayden Reed, GB at PHI
5.7-3.8-46-0.27 = 8.4
Reed led the Packers receivers with 10 touchdowns in 2023, ahead of Romeo Doubs with 8 and no one else with more than 5. But Reed trailed Doubs and Watson with 9 versus 15 and 14 end zone targets, and he’s the smallest Packers receiver at 5-foot-11 and 187 pounds. Expect some touchdown regression this season.
47. Rashid Shaheed, NO vs. CAR: 5.1-3.3-48-0.23 = 8.0
48. Adam Thielen, CAR at NO: 5.8-4.2-44-0.26 = 8.0
49. DeAndre Hopkins, TEN at CHI: 6.0-3.5-46-0.27 = 8.0
50. Ladd McConkey, LAC vs. LV: 5.9-3.7-45-0.26 = 7.9
51. Jerry Jeudy, CLV vs. DAL: 5.5-3.5-48-0.23 = 7.9
52. Brian Thomas Jr., JAX at MIA: 5.4-3.4-43-0.26 = 7.7
53. Jordan Addison, MIN at NYG: 5.3-3.4-44-0.25 = 7.6
54. Romeo Doubs, GB at PHI: 5.2-3.3-42-0.27 = 7.4
55. Gabe Davis, JAX at MIA: 5.0-2.8-44-0.27 = 7.4
56. Xavier Worthy, KC vs. BLT: 5.0-3.1-41-0.24 = 7.4
57. Michael Wilson, ARZ at BUF: 5.0-3.2-43-0.23 = 7.3
58. Darnell Mooney, ATL vs. PIT: 5.7-3.3-42-0.21 = 7.2
59. Curtis Samuel, BUF vs. ARZ: 4.9-3.3-36-0.23 = 7.0
60. Demarcus Robinson, LA at DET: 4.9-3.1-40-0.24 = 7.0
61. Jameson Williams, DET vs. LA: 4.8-2.9-39-0.22 = 6.9
Tight Ends
7. Kyle Pitts, ATL vs. PIT: 6.8-4.3-56-0.31 = 9.5
8. David Njoku, CLV vs. DAL: 6.8-4.6-50-0.33 = 9.3
9. George Kittle, SF vs. NYJ: 5.4-3.8-53-0.34 = 9.2
10. Jake Ferguson, DAL at CLV: 6.0-4.3-45-0.38 = 9.0
11. Taysom Hill, NO vs. CAR
2.6-2.0-19-0.13 = 8.5
Yep, we are still doing this. I am projecting Hill for 0.32 rushing touchdowns in Week 1, 33rd among all players. Start him at tight end if you can in your leagues.
12. Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. GB
5.6-4.1-42-0.25 = 7.8
Long-term, Jahan Dotson is a threat to Goedert’s top 10 tight end target share projection. But with just two weeks from the trade to the Eagles’ Week 1 game in Brazil, Dotson seems unlikely to see his peak potential workload. Start Goedert with confidence.
13. Dalton Schultz, HST at IND
5.3-3.6-38-0.29 = 7.3
I see Tank Dell as the biggest target loser of the Texans’ Stefon Diggs addition. But I am projecting Schultz to slip from a 17.2% target share in 2023 to a 15.5% share in Week 1, and that costs him his TE1 standing if your league still lists Taysom Hill as a tight end.
14. Cole Kmet, CHI vs. TEN
4.4-3.4-34-0.25 = 6.6
Kmet was an easy TE1 in 2023. But the Bears’ additions of Keenan Allen and top-10 receiver pick Rome Odunze this offseason could sabotage the veteran tight end’s former target share. I am projecting Kmet for a 13.0% share in Week 1 that is tied for just 19th at the position, and I would leave him your fantasy benches.
15. Tyler Conklin, NYJ at SF
4.9-3.4-35-0.22 = 6.5
Conklin has 174 targets the last two seasons, tied for eighth most among tight ends. But he has scored just three touchdowns versus 5.98 expected touchdowns, and his 2.98-touchdown shortfall is the most at his position. He could threaten TE1 status if Aaron Rodgers returns healthy this season.
16. Luke Musgrave, GB at PHI
4.2-3.1-32-0.22 = 6.1
I’m bullish on a Year 2 Musgrave jump. But the Packers are loaded at the skill positions, and my projected 12.5% Week 1 target share misses the top 20 at the position even as it comfortably edges his teammate Tucker Kraft’s 8.5% rate. Keep Musgrave on your bench while we see how the team divvies up the targets this week.
17. Noah Fant, SEA vs. DEN: 4.1-3.0-34-0.17 = 6.0
18. Cade Otton, TB vs. WAS: 4.3-3.0-30-0.22 = 5.8
19. Brock Bowers, LV at LAC: 4.0-2.8-30-0.23 = 5.8
20. Juwan Johnson, NO vs. CAR: 4.3-2.8-30-0.23 = 5.8
21. Isaiah Likely, BLT at KC: 3.8-2.7-31-0.22 = 5.8
22. Hunter Henry, NE at CIN: 4.1-2.9-30-0.22 = 5.7
23. Mike Gesicki, CIN vs. NE: 3.9-2.6-25-0.19 = 4.9
24. Pat Freiermuth, PIT at ATL: 3.7-2.5-27-0.16 = 4.9
25. Jonnu Smith, MIA vs. JAX: 3.4-2.4-27-0.16 = 4.8
26. Michael Mayer, LV at LAC: 3.2-2.2-24-0.18 = 4.5
27. Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN at CHI: 3.3-2.3-24-0.13 = 4.4
28. Johnny Mundt, MIN at NYG: 3.1-2.3-22-0.15 = 4.2
29. Tucker Kraft, GB at PHI: 2.8-2.0-21-0.14 = 3.9
30. Will Dissly, LAC vs. LV: 2.6-2.0-20-0.12 = 3.8
31. Ben Sinnott, WAS at TB: 2.5-1.7-19-0.15 = 3.6
32. Colby Parkinson, LA at DET: 2.5-1.8-19-0.13 = 3.6
33. Zach Ertz, WAS at TB: 2.9-1.9-17-0.14 = 3.5
34. Greg Dulcich, DEN at SEA: 2.7-1.8-19-0.11 = 3.5
