Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Hype is a fickle beast in fantasy football, causing ADPs to rise. Sometimes they rise too far, though, and players don’t live up to that hype and get labeled a disappointment.
However, that doesn’t mean you should just completely give up. If you did, you likely missed out on breakout players from 2021 like Deebo Samuel or Mike Williams, for instance. So who are some post-hype sleepers entering the 2022 campaign?
Let’s take a look.
Miles Sanders, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
There has been a lot of hype around Miles Sanders since he entered the league in 2019. And in those three seasons, he’s shown flashes. But that’s exactly what they’ve been — flashes. Sanders has been extremely efficient during his NFL career, averaging 5.1 yards per carry, while ranking seventh, 13th and 15th in yards per touch. He’s truly been one of the best running backs in football when it comes to ripping off long runs. In 2021, 35% of Sanders’ rushing attempts went for 15 yards or more, good for the sixth-best rate among qualified running backs. And in 2020 and 2019, Sanders ranked 11th and ninth in breakaway run rate. So the talent is clearly there.
However, the fantasy production has not.
During his first three seasons, Sanders has ranked 41st, 19th and 21st in PPR points per game at the running back position. Of course, a huge reason behind his underwhelming fantasy numbers has been the lack of touchdowns. Sanders somehow failed to score a single touchdown last season, while only scoring six touchdowns in each of his first two seasons. Last year was particularly ridiculous, and he is clearly due for positive touchdown regression. Quarterback Jalen Hurts led the team with 13 carries inside the 5-yard line, which was also seventh in all of football. Sanders only saw five such carries. He missed five games last season, but when he was healthy, especially during the second half of the season, the Eagles finally committed to him as the lead back. In Weeks 1-7, Sanders only averaged nine carries per game, as the Eagles were insanely pass-heavy during that stretch, calling pass over 61% of the time. However, during Weeks 11-16, Sanders averaged 15 rushing attempts per game, and that was while leaving both Weeks 12 and 16 early with injuries, logging 30% and 33% of the snaps in those games. From Week 8 on last year, Philadelphia called run at the highest rate in football (59.1%).
Entering 2022, Sanders is still in a very appealing spot. He’s just 25 years old and plays in arguably the most run-heavy offense in football that should still feature an elite run-blocking offensive line. In 2021, the Eagles offensive line generated 2.22 yards before contact per attempt, the highest mark in the NFL. And individually, Sanders averaged 3.4 yards before contact per rush, the second-best rate among all running backs. Assuming he enters the season as the starter, Sanders is a very interesting bounceback candidate, especially if he can stay healthy and see touchdown regression.
Rondale Moore, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Rondale Moore had a very disappointing rookie season, hauling in just 54 balls for 435 yards and one touchdown. There was a lot of excitement around his fit in this Arizona offense, but it really didn’t come to fruition. Moore had zero downfield usage, as he averaged a comical -0.1 yards before the catch per reception, easily the lowest mark among all wide receivers. Playing alongside DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk and A.J. Green, Moore’s usage and playing time was very inconsistent each week. He ended up playing just under 37% of the offensive snaps, and when the Cardinals added tight end Zach Ertz, it really hurt Moore the most, as those two operate in the same areas of the field.
Having said all of that, there is still reasons for optimism entering year two. For starters, Kirk and Green are set to hit free agency, and it seems very unlikely that both players are back in 2022, perhaps neither. Moore’s playing time should skyrocket and he still does fit the offense well, as Arizona runs as many screens as any team in football. In fact, quarterback Kyler Murray finished the season attempting 78 screens, the fourth most in the league, despite missing three games. A lot of those targets should go to Moore next season and if he can finally get some deep targets, we may be onto something.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos
A lot of this is speculation, but if the Broncos can add Aaron Rodgers or significantly upgrade the quarterback position in any way, it should be all systems go for Jerry Jeudy. 2021 was a lost year for Jeudy. He got hurt in the middle of Week 1, which cost him the next six weeks of action. When he came back, Jeudy saw middling target totals in a run-first, low volume offense, which led to zero fantasy upside. However, he still projects as the top target in this offense and remains an immensely talented wide receiver with the ability to create separation in a variety of ways. He gave us an idea of how good he could be in Week 1, hauling in six-of-seven targets for 72 yards in just over two quarters of work.
Again, if Denver adds Rodgers this offseason, Jeudy will likely be the most popular breakout candidate in fantasy. But I also believe Jeudy is still talented enough to bounce back if the Broncos don’t land the Hall of Fame quarterback.
Justin Fields, QB, Chicago Bears
It wasn’t the rookie season he had hoped for, but I fully believe Justin Fields will be a star in the NFL. He dealt with injuries, as well as being in and out of the lineup, which is difficult for a rookie quarterback. But Fields showed serious signs of stardom last year, especially in Week 14 against the Packers — where he threw for 224 yards and a pair of scores, while adding 74 rushing yards on nine carries — as well as Week 8 against San Francisco. Fields rushed for at least 35 yards in six of his seven starts last season, which is always enticing for fantasy purposes. Fields finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in four of his last five games, showing that upside. Meanwhile, just like he did in college, Fields showed his ability to make plays deep down the field, sporting the league’s 13th-best adjusted completion percentage on deep passes (44.2%). Entering his sophomore season, Fields will be more comfortable, not to mention he won’t have to deal with the awful play calling we saw from the Bears throughout this past season. Chicago’s entire offseason should be devoted to putting the right pieces around their franchise quarterback and as long as they do, Fields will thrive.
