Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
(As fantasy football dives headlong into draft season, some players warrant a little extra attention. All August, Dom Cintorino and Adam Pfeifer will do deep dives into some of the notable names. Follow along with our player profiles series. Today’s profile: Tua Tagovailoa)
Fantasy football value 2021 – Tua Tagovailoa
Every season, we are looking for the next breakout signal caller in the NFL. Last year, it was Josh Allen, and while I’m not quite sure if he can reach that ceiling, Tua Tagovailoa does make perfect sense as a breakout candidate in 2021.
Tua’s rookie campaign certainly doesn’t tell the whole story. He only played in seven full games and had veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick in his rearview mirror, and let’s not forget, he was coming off a brutal injury before entering the league. Tagovailoa threw for 1,814 yards and 11 touchdowns, while adding three rushing scores. During those seven starts, Tagovailoa was a top-15 fantasy quarterback, which was pretty impressive when you consider the situation. For starters, he was in and out of the lineup and had plenty of pressure since he wasn’t the unquestioned starter at quarterback. Secondly, it was a very odd offseason with a different training camp and zero preseason, which certainly isn’t ideal for a rookie. Entering the 2021 season, Tagovailoa is clearly “the guy” and has looked pretty sharp during the preseason. And the environment surrounding him is much more appealing than it was a year ago.
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Last season, the Dolphins’ pass-catchers were very underwhelming. Preston Williams and DeVante Parker missed a combined 10 games — for a few weeks, Miami’s top pass-catchers were tight end Mike Gesicki, Lynn Bowden and Jakeem Grant. And even when this unit was fully healthy, it didn’t exactly instill much confidence. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Parker and Gesicki ranked second and third to last in terms of separation, which is significant for Tagovailoa, who grew accustomed to throwing the football to wide open pass-catchers during his time at Alabama. But Miami added both Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle during the offseason, two players who can generate a ton of separation and present more downfield opportunities for Tua.
Last season, just 8.4% of Tagovailoa’s pass attempts traveled 20 yards or more down the field, the 10th-lowest rate among qualified quarterbacks. With Waddle and Fuller now in the offense, Tua’s ceiling becomes more evident, while I believe there will be a solid floor here, too.
Tagovailoa isn’t going to provide elite rushing numbers, but he’ll present enough to make a difference. During his rookie season, he averaged nearly four carries and nearly one red-zone carry per game. Between the new additions to this receiver room plus already having Parker and Gesicki, the Dolphins have a nice balance of players who can get open and create huge plays after the catch and players who can win at the catch point and make contested catches. The versatility within the Dolphins’ pass-catching group is very exciting and it should go a long way in helping Tagovailoa’s progression. He is an awesome two-quarterback league target but also offers top-12 potential at the position this season.
Fantasy football ADP stock watch – Tua Tagovailoa
Per FTN’s ADP, Tagovailoa is coming off the board as the QB20, which seems pretty low. I understand that the quarterback position is absolutely loaded every single year, but Tua has top-12 upside at the position. And yes, three rookie quarterbacks are being drafted ahead of him and if Trey Lance and Justin Fields are starting, they should certainly be ranked ahead of Tua. But at the moment, Tagovailoa is the clear starter, and if you are drafting today, I would side with him over Fields and Lance. In traditional one-quarterback leagues, Tagovailoa isn’t going to be drafted until the last few rounds, if at all. But in two-quarterback formats, he is one of my favorite quarterbacks to target.
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NFL fantasy football ranking – Tua Tagovailoa
Tagovailoa is currently the QB17 in FTN’s consensus rankings, which seems right. Again, Fields, Lance and Trevor Lawrence are all ranked ahead of Tua here, which I totally understand because of the massive ceiling they present. But Miami did everything possible this offseason to put their franchise quarterback in the best position to find success and let’s not forget that Tua was an elite prospect coming into the NFL. I believe an entire offseason (and regular season) knowing that he is the unquestioned starter will go a long way toward Tua’s confidence and I am very excited to see what he can do in his sophomore campaign.
