Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
(As fantasy football dives headlong into draft season, some players warrant a little extra attention. All August, Dom Cintorino and Adam Pfeifer will do deep dives into some of the notable names. Follow along with our player profiles series. Today’s profile: Stefon Diggs)
The Buffalo Bills have been waiting for their alpha wide receiver for a long time. In 2020, that wait finally came to an end.
After a win-win trade with the Minnesota Vikings, Diggs joined the Bills and helped Buffalo become one of the best passing offenses in the NFL, while helping Josh Allen develop into an MVP-caliber quarterback. There is a track record of receivers struggling after joining new teams but Diggs did the exact opposite during his inaugural season in Buffalo, as he led the league in targets (168), receptions (127), and receiving yards (1,535), all of which were obviously career-highs. Diggs’ 29.1% target share was the third-highest mark in all of football last season, while his 29% first read share was tied for the fourth-highest rate. He saw double-digit targets in nine games last season while eclipsing 90 yards 10 times. Diggs finished the season third among receivers in fantasy points and fourth in fantasy points per snap (0.34), while only Calvin Ridley recorded more 100-yard games than Diggs’ seven. He was a mismatch all over the field but was especially dangerous against man coverage, as his 3.60 yards per route run against man coverage ranked third in the league. His 61 receptions against man easily led the league, while his 867 yards against the coverage were over 200 more than any other player in football. You could easily make the argument that no one played the receiver position better than Diggs in 2020.
Between the addition of Diggs and the emergence of Allen at quarterback, Buffalo has suddenly transformed from a run-first team to one of the pass-happiest teams in football. Last season, the Bills averaged nearly 38 pass attempts per game, while they are one of the pass-heaviest teams on early downs, which we are already seeing continue during the preseason. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll isn’t interested in having a balanced offense. If the opposing defense can’t stop what you are doing on offense, Daboll will continue to do that. And because the clear strength of this Buffalo offense is throwing the football, expect the passing volume to be near the top of the league once again. Per Derek Brown and Matt Jones’ look at Buffalo’s coaching and coordinators, the Bills ranked third in both neutral script pass rate (63%) and when leading in games (57%). The offensive philosophy is extremely unlikely to change this season, which means Diggs should once again be locked into 150-plus targets. Diggs is an elite player paired with an elite, ascending quarterback in one of the league’s pass-happiest offenses, while seeing one of the highest target shares in all of football. Clearly, he checks pretty much all of the boxes.
Fantasy football ADP stock watch – Stefon Diggs
According to FTN’s ADP tool, Diggs is being drafted as the WR3 at the end of the first round or the start of the second round. He has as much upside and as strong of a floor as both Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams, who are the only two wideouts being drafted ahead of Diggs, though the touchdown upside likely isn’t quite there with him. Diggs did score eight times last season but the touchdowns didn’t come until the end of the season. He was 24th among all receivers with nine end zone targets, behind rookie teammate Gabriel Davis, who was fantastic last season but is due for regression in the touchdown department. Assuming the end zone (and red zone) looks come up this season, Diggs has the ceiling of 11 or 12 touchdowns, and given the number of receptions he’ll record, that could be enough for him to finish as the WR1 in all of fantasy. As far as his ADP, Diggs is one of the easiest selections in drafts, especially if he falls to the second round.
NFL fantasy football ranking – Stefon Diggs
In FTN’s consensus PPR rankings, Diggs is actually the WR2, just ahead of Hill. And a handful of analysts actually have him ranked ahead of Adams as the top wideout in fantasy, which honestly isn’t crazy at all. In half PPR, Diggs is the WR3, which does make a bit more sense considering Adams and Hill both scored 15-plus touchdowns a season ago, while Hill failed to reach the 90-catch mark. Adams’ receptions will likely be close enough to Diggs’ to keep him penciled in as the top receiver in fantasy, while he has as much touchdown equity as anyone in all of football. But Diggs is very much in consideration as the second receiver off draft boards, especially in full PPR leagues. He is an absolute superstar and will continue to shine in his second season with the Bills.
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