Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
(As fantasy football dives headlong into draft season, some players warrant a little extra attention. All August, Dom Cintorino and Adam Pfeifer will do deep dives into some of the notable names. Follow along with our player profiles series. Today’s profile: Logan Thomas)
Fantasy Football Value 2021 – Logan Thomas
Logan Thomas finally found a place to call home last year with his fourth team since 2014. The quarterback turned tight end had a rocky start to his NFL career, but finally broke out in his 29-year-old season. Thomas turned his 110 targets into 72 receptions for 670 yards and six touchdowns. He was out-targeted by just Terry McLaurin (134) on the Washington Football Team (Thomas and J.D. McKissic were tied at 110). This was still good for a total target share of 19.38%, which was top-five in terms of tight ends. By season-end, Thomas was fantasy football’s TE3, tied with Robert Tonyan at 176.6 PPR points. Both his targets and receptions ranked third amongst tight ends.
We also have to remember that Thomas posted these numbers with four different signal callers. That’ll be changing this season, as the Football Team brought in Ryan Fitzpatrick on a one-year deal worth $10 million. Fitzpatrick opened the season as the starter for the Dolphins through the first six weeks. Using the FTN Fantasy air yards tool, you can filter out specific weeks to look at trends. In that time frame, Fitzpatrick targeted Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki 31 times (5.16 per game). This was the second most behind just DeVante Parker (40). Through week 6, Fitzpatrick had 1,527 air yards, 12th most among quarterbacks. So it’s clear Thomas should be seeing an upgrade at quarterback heading into 2021.
Speaking of air yards, Thomas saw 772 on the season. With more consistent quarterback play, we should see an increase in this number moving forward. Thomas saw an air percentage of 21.38% while McLaurin was at 47.67%. With the addition of Curtis Samuel, both Thomas and McLaurin will likely see this percentage come down a bit. However, I’d expect McLaurin to take the bigger hit.
(Take advantage of the FTNFantasy Platinum package for the 2021 season!)
Thomas did show out in a few spots when looking over the advanced receiving stats, one of the many FTN premium tools. He led all tight ends in created receptions with four. These are “difficult catches that require exceptional body control, hands, acrobatics, or any combination thereof.” He grabbed five of the eight contested targets that he saw in 2020, both of which were top five. Drops were somewhat of an issue for Thomas, with five on the year. The contested catch rate is impressive, but ideally, we’d like to see more catchable balls. His high number of targets pushed his drop percentage down to just 6.60%. Better quarterback play should put him in more favorable spots to make these plays.
The FTN Fantasy season-long projections currently have Thomas as the TE8 at 165.1 PPR points. He’s projected for the third-most targets (89) on the Football Team behind McLaurin (138) and Samuel (95). There is a path for Thomas to be the No. 2 guy over Samuel. Regardless, he will be the primary tight end and will see a majority of the snaps. FTN Fantasy’s snaps report shows that Thomas played the second highest percentage of snaps amongst tight ends. Looking at the depth chart beyond Thomas, the Football Team doesn’t have a whole lot to offer at tight end. His snap share alone provides a nice floor at a position that can get thin later on in drafts.
While the snaps provide a safe floor, Thomas did show his elite upside toward the end of the season. In the last five games (Weeks 13-17), Thomas had more targets (49) and receptions (38) than all tight ends not named Darren Waller. His two most targeted games came in Weeks 15 and 16, with at least 12 in each contest. Week 15 at home against the Seahawks was his biggest game, where he turned his 15 targets into 13 receptions for his only 100-yard game of the season. His target number did stay consistent throughout the year even though we did see this spike toward the end. Thomas saw at least four targets in all 16 games.
Fantasy football ADP stock watch – Logan Thomas
Currently on FTN Fantasy’s ADP tool, Thomas is being drafted as the ninth tight end off the board. He has an ADP of 96.84, which puts him at the end of the eighth round. Thomas is a solid tight end option in 2021, this price seems a bit steep. A few notable players around this range include Noah Fant, Deebo Samuel, DeVonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy and Michael Carter. In this spot, it just seems like there is more upside to chase. Thomas’ ADP hasn’t changed a whole lot over the past few months. He had a difference of just .26 from June (97.11) to July (96.85). His role is clear, so the preseason shouldn’t affect his ADP one way or the other. If you want a piece of Logan Thomas, you’re going to have to jump on him before the double-digit rounds.
(Get an All Access pass to FTN NFL coverage across all sites for $349.99.)
NFL fantasy football ranking – Logan Thomas
(Check out Jeff Ratcliffe’s top 100 0.5 PPR rankings.)
Logan Thomas’ ranking on FTN Fantasy aligns with his current ADP. He’s the consensus TE9 in PPR rankings as three analysts actually have him at the nine spot. Thomas is ranked as high as eighth and as low as 14th. Expect him to remain in this range come draft day.
