Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Data plays a massive role in fantasy football. Especially for massive dorks like me who analyze this silly game every single day. And with all of the incredible data we have available at FTN Fantasy, it makes sense to utilize that information to help with fantasy football decisions.
So every Friday, I’ll run through some of my favorite stats for the week, helping you identify some of the best matchups in fantasy football. Be sure to check out the incredible FTN Fantasy StatsHub for a deep dive of all of our in-depth analytics.
Numbers to Know for Fantasy Football Week 9
Jakobi Meyers Is Sporting a 30.8% Target Share Without Davante Adams
Adams hasn’t played a game for the Raiders in a while, but even when he was in Las Vegas, Meyers was very productive in games where the veteran wideout was sidelined. In three games without Adams this season, Meyers is averaging 8.7 targets and 13.4 PPR points per game, sporting a healthy 30.8% target share. With Adams off the field, Meyers, who had typically played in the slot around 50-60% of the time, moves to the outside more, operating from the slot just 29.1% of the time. He’ll remain a very high-end WR3 against a vulnerable Bengals defense that is coughing up the fifth-most points (2.53) and fourth-most yards (36.4) per drive this season.
De’Von Achane Is Averaging 7.3 Targets and 6.7 Catches Per Game with Tua Tagovailoa
Tua Tagovailoa made his return last week, boosting the entire Miami offense. Achane, who was on pace to be a top-three fantasy running back prior to Tua’s injury, saw his elite production return last week, hauling in 6-of-8 targets for 50 yards and a touchdown. Achane is now averaging 7.3 targets, 6.7 receptions, 65.0 receiving yards and 26.4 fantasy points per game in three contests with Tagovailoa under center this season. He is basically operating as the Dolphins’ RB1A and WR2 right now and this matchup is absolutely perfect for him. The Bills are surrendering the most targets (8.3), catches (6.4) and receiving yards (54.3) per game to opposing backfields this season. Achane caught a touchdown pass against Buffalo back in Week 2.
Josh Downs Is Averaging 19.2 PPR Points Per Game with Joe Flacco
I wrote about Josh Downs in this week’s WR/CB article, but that was from a DFS lens. In season-long formats, the move to Joe Flacco makes Downs a borderline must-start fantasy wide receiver. I benched Tank Dell for him, so I’m obviously expecting a huge game on Sunday night. (Please, Josh.) Anyway, Downs has played three games with Flacco under center this season, and the results have been stellar. The sophomore wideout is averaging 10.0 targets, 8.0 catches, 72.3 receiving yards and just over 19 fantasy points per contest. He has over a 27% target share from Flacco, and he has a 26.5% target share against the blitz with Flacco at quarterback. That is notable considering this week’s opponent, the Vikings, blitz at the league’s highest rate (41.4%). And to make this matchup even more favorable, Minnesota is allowing 12.1 targets per game to the slot this season (second most), while Downs lines up in the slot over 85% of the time.
Since Week 3, Lead RBs Against the Saints Are Averaging 20.8 Fantasy Points Per Game
During that same span, the Saints are allowing 3.2 yards before contact per attempt (second most), a 48.9% success rate (second worst) and a 15.7% explosive rush rate (fifth worst). That makes this a very favorable matchup for Chuba Hubbard, who could maybe lose a few touches if rookie Jonathon Brooks finally makes his NFL debut, but it shouldn’t be much at all. Hubbard is averaging 20.3 touches per game, good for the fifth-most in the NFL. Continue to start Hubbard as a rock-solid RB2 this weekend.
The Ravens Are Allowing 87.4 Yards Per Game to Opposing Lead WRs
That is good for the third most in the NFL, as Baltimore remains a massive pass funnel defense that gives up explosive pass plays. Over 80% of the yardage surrendered by the Ravens this season has come through the air, the highest rate in football. Baltimore is also coughing up 15 catches for 391 yards and four touchdowns off go routes this season, as well as five touchdowns of 20-plus air yards. They have also allowed the most completions of 20-plus air yards (19). Courtland Sutton is coming off a nice bounceback game in Week 8 (8-100-0) and could be in store for a repeat performance Sunday.
