Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Data plays a massive role in fantasy football. Especially for massive dorks like me who analyze this silly game every single day. And with all of the incredible data we have available at FTN Fantasy, it makes sense to utilize that information to help with fantasy football decisions.
So every Friday, I’ll run through some of my favorite stats for the week, helping you identify some of the best matchups in fantasy football. Be sure to check out the incredible FTN Fantasy StatsHub for a deep dive of all of our in-depth analytics.
Numbers to Know for Fantasy Football Week 6
19.7% of Tony Pollard’s Runs Have Come out of Power Concepts
Following a bye week, Pollard finds himself in a great spot this weekend. He’ll face a reeling, beat up Indianapolis defense that continues to struggle defending the run. So far this season, the Colts are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, and tackling remains an issue. They are allowing 3.1 yards after contact per attempt (second worst), as well as the fifth-worst avoided tackle rate in the NFL (24.1%). In particular, the Colts are also allowing 4.7 yards per carry off power run concepts, which is notable considering it makes up nearly 20% of Pollard’s rushing attempts on the year. Pollard, who is averaging a healthy 18.5 touches per game, makes for a low-end RB1 in this great matchup.
Ladd McConkey Has a 24.4% Target Share Against Man Coverage
The Chargers are also coming off a bye, and I see this as a sneaky good spot for McConkey. As a rookie, McConkey is sporting a healthy 24.4% target share against man coverage, while ranking seventh among all wide receivers in yards per route run against the defense (2.8). He is also sporting a strong 54.5% open separation rate against man coverage, while averaging the second-most fantasy points per target (2.95). This is all notable against a Denver defense that ranks top-five in the NFL in man coverage and because McConkey plays from the slot 67.4% of the time, he should be able to avoid Pat Surtain II for the majority of this game.
The Bengals Are Allowing the 2nd-Most Rushing Yards Per Game to Opposing QBs (32.8)
This bodes well for Daniel Jones, who has been playing well. Over the last three weeks, Jones ranks seventh in completion rate (70.4%) and 10th in accuracy percentage (79.8%). Jones is also averaging 21.6 rushing yards per game over the course of the season and should remain a high-end streaming option against a bad Cincinnati defense. The Bengals are allowing the second-most points (2.96), most yards (38.9) and third-most plays (7.06) per drive in the NFL. And according to our DVOA Adjusted Fantasy Points tool, Cincinnati is surrendering 27% more fantasy points than average to opposing quarterbacks. You’d have felt even better about Jones if Malik Nabers had returned to the lineup, but even with him still out, Jones should be on your radar as a great quarterback streaming option this week.
16.4% of Derek Carr’s Pass Attempts Have Traveled 20-Plus Yards
That’s the second-highest rate among qualified quarterbacks, behind only Anthony Richardson. I think the Saints offense is one of the more fascinating units this week with Carr sidelined and Spencer Rattler getting the start. So much of Carr’s game since last year has been either a check down to Alvin Kamara or a deep shot down the field. It has helped Rashid Shaheed rank third in air yards per game (114) and first on the Saints in first-read target share (34.7%). Rattler has already talked about how he makes an effort to get Chris Olave the football, so it’ll be very interesting to see what the targets and wide receiver usage will look like Sunday.
Marvin Harrison Jr. Has 0 Targets in Pre-Snap Motion This Season
I’ve been very disappointed with the usage of Harrison through the first five weeks. The rookie ranks second in the league in yards before the catch per reception (14.1), and over 25% of his targets have come off go routes. He has yet to see a target out of pre-snap motion, as the Cardinals continue to avoid getting their top wideout layup targets over the middle of the field. Instead, he’s constantly asked to win vertical routes down the sideline and make tough catches on back shoulder throws. This usage has made Harrison more of a boom/bust WR1 than the surefire top-12 fantasy wideout he was drafted as during the summer. A potential matchup with Jaire Alexander this week wouldn’t instill much confidence either.
