First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
Data plays a massive role in fantasy football. That’s especially true for massive dorks like me who analyze this silly game every single day. And with all of the incredible data we have available at FTN Fantasy, it makes sense to utilize that information to help with fantasy football decisions.
So every Friday, I’ll run through some of my favorite stats for the week, helping you identify some of the best matchups in fantasy football. Be sure to check out the incredible FTN Fantasy StatsHub for a deep dive of all of our in-depth analytics.
Numbers to Know for Fantasy Football in the Divisional Round
1. The Buffalo Bills Allowed the Highest Explosive Rush Rate in the NFL (14.3%)
That is not exactly a recipe for success ahead of a matchup with Derrick Henry, who sported nearly a 14% explosive rush rate himself during the regular season. When these teams met back in Week 4, Henry kicked off the game with an 87-yard touchdown, ultimately finishing with three explosive runs. The Bills were without Terrel Bernard, Matt Milano and Taron Johnson for that game, but it’ll be interesting to see if this unit plays a lot more base defense with three linebackers to counter the Ravens rushing attack.
2. The Lions Allowed 26.7 Rushing Yards Per Game to Opposing QBs
It was the fourth most in football during the regular season and something Detroit has struggled with for a few years now. It makes sense considering they play man coverage 60.7% of the time, the highest rate in the NFL. Jayden Daniels had 13 carries in Washington’s Wild Card game, eight of which were designed. Expect the Commanders to call Daniels’ number a lot in this game, and if the defenders have their backs turned in man coverage, he won’t be hesitant to take off and run. Nine quarterbacks have rushed for at least 30 yards in a game against the Lions this season. I’d be shocked if Daniels doesn’t make it 10 this Saturday.
3. Xavier Worthy Averaged 8.8 Targets Per Game over His Final 5 Games
It was a slow start for Worthy, but the rookie has emerged as arguably Kansas City’s top pass-catcher over the final five games of the season. His target share during that span hovered around 21%, as the Chiefs continued to get him designed touches. His 13 screen targets during that stretch were the second-most among all wide receivers and he finds himself in a good spot to keep it going this weekend. The Texans allowed 16 explosive touchdown passes during the regular season, the most in the NFL. They also allowed the eighth-most EPA per target (0.064) and ninth-most receptions per game off screen passes (3.3).
4. C.J. Stroud Ranks 9th-Worst in EPA/DB Against the Blitz
Stroud averaged -0.097 EPA/DB against the blitz during the regular season, also ranking eighth worst in DVOA when blitzed. He only threw six touchdown passes against the blitz, and his 44.4% success rate ranked bottom-15 in the entire league. Now he has to face Steve Spagnuolo and the Kansas City defense that sends the blitz at the league’s sixth-highest rate (31.4%).
5. Detroit Allowed the 2nd-Most Receiving Yards Per Game to Opposing WR2s (64.5)
We know Terry McLaurin is going to most likely get his in this matchup. But if Washington is going to pull off the upset, other guys have to step up. Perhaps it could be Dyami Brown, who is coming off a career game against Tampa Bay last week, hauling in all five of his targets for 89 yards and a touchdown. Or maybe it’ll be Olamide Zaccheaus, who primarily plays in the slot, where the Lions are also surrendering the seventh-most yards per target (8.2), third-most receptions (7.9), second-most targets (11.9) and most receiving yards (98.2) per game this season. Either way, one of these two wideouts are going to have to step up alongside McLaurin, making both players interesting GPP options in DFS contests this weekend.
