Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The fantasy season is just around the corner, and it’s time to start really digging into ADP. Fantasy drafters have been pumping out drafts left and right, which means we are getting a full picture of the edges that can be found in drafts.
As the preseason comes to a close, plenty of value is starting to emerge in fantasy drafts are people are reacting (and overreacting) to the ebbs and flows of the preseason. Now that roster cutdowns are out of the way, we can focus on the best values in drafts to fully flesh out bench spots (and hopefully avoid roster cloggers). Check out this week’s edition of ADP rumblings below.
Michael Carter, RB, New York Jets
All the hype this offseason has been centered around rookie second-round pick Breece Hall, but we can’t forget how productive Michael Carter was during his rookie season in 2021. The UNC product carried the ball 147 times for 639 yards and four touchdowns while catching 36 of 55 targets for 325 receiving yards. While the team has invested more in Hall as a prospect, it doesn’t necessarily mean that Carter will be eliminated from the backfield.
The second-year running back was effective throughout the preseason, carrying the ball seven times for 15 yards and catching two passes for 17 yards. Carter’s strong preseason (combined with some struggles from Hall) has caused him to move up nine draft slots in the past week. At the very least, Carter will have a partial share of the pass work behind a solid offensive line while working with Hall. Carter can still be drafted in the ninth or 10th round of fantasy drafts, which makes him an intriguing value, especially if he gets more work as the Jets acclimate their rookie second-round pick to the NFL.
Isaiah Spiller, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
While Carter is climbing, Isaiah Spiller, a rookie running back with the Chargers, is free falling in ADP. The fourth-round pick out of Texas A&M was in an open competition for the backup running back spot behind Austin Ekeler with Joshua Kelley at the start of the preseason. Spiller earned just two carries with the Chargers’ first team in their first preseason game before suffering an ankle injury that has knocked him out of practice and has put the start of his season in jeopardy. The time away has essentially cost him a shot at the backup running back spot as Kelley has emerged as the lead candidate to shoulder the load behind Ekeler. (And now, as of Wednesday morning, there are reports that the Chargers are bringing in Sony Michel to discuss a possible contract, further muddying the waters.)
Spiller was in the conversation as the top running back in the draft before a lack of testing and a perceived lack of explosive speed. The lack of preseason playing time and reports of Kelley taking over the primary backup role has caused Spiller to drop in ADP. Spiller has dropped two whole rounds since last week in NFC ADP and is currently being taken as the 154th pick in fantasy drafts. That seems fair for a rookie who the NFL didn’t love (based on his Day 3 draft capital) who will now need to make up for the lost time in practice to start the season.
Zamir White, RB, Las Vegas Raiders
Zamir White is a rookie running back who is quickly climbing draft boards. Like Spiller, White was drafted in the fourth round and finds himself in a backfield that had an established running back in 2021. However, White was able to stay healthy throughout the preseason and flash his ability to produce at the NFL level. The Georgia product finished his first preseason with 26 carries for 90 yards and two touchdowns. White also got a perceived value boost during cutdowns this week after the team decided to move on from Kenyan Drake. Drake would have profiled more as a pass-catching back, but he still could have taken work from the rookie in the running game early in the season.
White’s success in the preseason (and the removal of one competitor in the backfield) have caused him to climb 14 spots in fantasy drafts over the past week. The rookie is currently being drafted as the RB56 as the season gets ready to begin. Given Josh Jacobs’ injury history and White’s impressive pedigree (he was a five-star prospect and the top running back in his class coming out of high school), White could find himself having a lead-rushing role at some point in this season. He provides an excellent amount of upside as a rusher (but very limited receiver) in the 14th round of fantasy drafts and is a great target to provide depth off the bench.
Albert Okwuegbunam, TE, Denver Broncos
It has been a rollercoaster of the offseason and preseason for Albert Okwuegbunam. First, the team included Noah Fant in the package that got them Russell Wilson, which led to a massive ADP spike. The team drafted a rookie (Greg Dulcich) during the 2022 NFL Draft, which led back to a dip. When Tim Patrick tore his ACL, Okwuegbunam had another ADP spike as people assumed that he would take over the role of the team’s third receiver thanks to his rare combination of size and speed. However, the ride wasn’t over yet after Okwuegbunam played late into the team’s second preseason game, once again leading to a huge dip in his draft value. Over the last week, Okwuegbunam’s ADP has jumped 14 spots, making him the TE16.
However, this ADP will undoubtedly rise once again. Okwuegbunam was held out with the rest of the starters ahead of the Broncos’ last preseason game. Then, Dulcich was finally added to the IR, leaving Okwuegbunam with little competition for the first four weeks of the season. Start drafting Albert O while his ADP is suppressed because he is set for a big role in the Broncos’ revamped passing attack.
