Fantasy football busts: Wide receivers to avoid in 2020

Avoiding the pitfalls in a fantasy football draft is at least as important as finding the big successes, if not moreso. On the heels of my quest to find the sleeper wide receivers in 2020 drafts, today I’m looking for the position’s busts.

While I do think DeAndre Hopkins could potentially bust in his first season in Arizona, his draft day price at NFC has come down over the past few weeks to the point where he’s a second-round pick. I think that’s fair for arguably the best wideout in football, despite having to learn a new offense with a new quarterback who likes to run more than his former QB in Houston. That’s not to mention very little time spent together during these tough times.

Below you’ll see a few other names who I’m far more certain will not return value on draft day. The truth is, the wide receiver position is as deep as ever, filled with tons of late-round value. The following ranks and ADPs are from NFC drafts from June 1.

Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys

ADP: WR11/36th overall

There seems to be a love/hate relationship with Cooper, despite him having his best two fantasy seasons in each of the last two years in Dallas. Cooper averaged 12.5 half-PPR points per game in 2018 and followed it up with 12.9 in 2019. Having said that, he’s a pain to own and there’s been nothing consistent about his performances.

Let’s start with the good, as Cooper hit the 34-point mark and touched the 20s two other times last season. That’s three unreal performances that likely resulted in wins for owners. The bad: He failed to hit the 10-point mark in a full-point setting in six of his 16 games in 2019 and mixed in two zeroes in a half-point setting.

Cooper averaged 19 points per game over his first five contests only to average seven over his final seven games. It certainly didn’t help that he scored five points or fewer in Weeks 12, 14 and 15 — right when fantasy managers needed him the most.

2018 went very similarly for the wideout, as he had six games with double-digit fantasy points and nine games with fewer than 10 points. He scored a whopping 44.7 fantasy points in Week 14, but just 10.3 in Weeks 15 and 16 combined. He also played six games where he failed to register four points. Again, putting up zeroes along the way.

How about 2017? Another zero and three more games with one fantasy point. There was a stretch where he scored 10 or fewer points in 10 of 11 games, but his one good game resulted in a 38.5-point showing. 2017 was filled with dropped passes, and the first part of 2018 was on the Raiders as they failed to target Cooper on any of their opening drives that season before shipping him off to Dallas where he immediately made an impact.

He’s also never been a factor in the red zone. In 2016, Michael Crabtree and Seth Roberts combined for 41 red-zone targets while Cooper racked up 13. He followed it up with nine in 2017, 11 in 2018, and his total of nine last season was behind Ezekiel Elliot and Jason Witten.

One thing Cooper has going for him since the trade has been his dominance over the NFC East. For example, 21% of Cooper’s yards over 25 games with the Cowboys have come against the Philadelphia Eagles. I’m sure that’s one of the many reasons Philly pushed so hard for Darius Slay in the offseason.

On top of all that, Dallas drafted CeeDee Lamb 17th overall, which is just another body for Dak Prescott to throw to. Mix in the emergence of Blake Jarwin to go along with Michael Gallup and we could see a few more zeroes in Cooper’s future. You can make a case for just about anyone as a best ball specialist, but I’d have Cooper as the cover boy.

A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans

ADP: WR17/49th overall

I typically like to take care of the running back position pretty early in drafts, so when I see Brown sitting there in the third or fourth as a potential WR1 or even WR2, it’s an easy pass for me.

Brown had a phenomenal rookie season, and he has all the tools to be a great wideout in the NFL. But I’m concerned about volume — Brown’s 5.2 targets per game last season ranked 64th among wideouts.

The Titans’ wideout had six games with two or fewer catches (eight if you include postseason) and four or fewer targets in half of his contests (10, including postseason). He showed his big-play ability in four of his final six games and his 20.2 yards per reception ranked second in the NFL, but I’m looking for a bit more consistency out of my WR1/2.

On top of that, there were games against top corners when Tannehill didn’t even bother looking Brown’s way. I don’t think the Titans will surprise too many teams with their play-action this season, and this is a team that wants to run the football. During a neutral gamescript from Week 7 on when Tannehill took over, only the Ravens had a lower pass rate.

Brown kind of reminds me of DeSean Jackson with less volume. I look at Jackson’s 2010 season where he had a league-high 22.5 yards per reception, only to follow it up with a 16.6 mark the next year. The same thing happened in 2014-15, when he had 20.9 yards per catch followed up by 17.6.

Brown’s going to have some big games, and he’ll likely be a big yards-per-catch guy his entire career, but we have to expect some regression in the Titans offense this season. It’s hard to be that efficient.

Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills

ADP: WR27/66th overall

I think on paper, the addition of Diggs is a great one for the Bills. I absolutely love what they’ve done over the past couple seasons by bringing in John Brown, Cole Beasley and Devin Singletary to help Josh Allen. Beasley and Brown do a great job of creating separation and it’s given them a bit more balance on offense. Diggs will add to that and WR27 is not a stretch by any means, but I feel there’s more bust potential than boom.

Buffalo will remain a run-heavy team, led by a run-first QB. The Bills ranked 24th in the NFL in passing attempts last season as they only threw the ball on 54% of their plays. While you can say Kirk Cousins only threw the ball 444 times in 2019 compared to Allen’s 461 attempts, it was Cousins who had a 69% completion percentage compared to Allen’s 59. Cousins’ completion percentage the season before was 70, and he has a 67% mark for his career. I’m not ready to count out Allen improving again on his accuracy, but you’d be silly to think the move to Buffalo is a win for Diggs.

I don’t think Brown will lead the Bills in catches, yards and touchdowns again, but I also don’t think he’s going to disappear from this offense. There was a clear connection between him and Allen. I don’t like to look too far ahead, but Week 13 at San Francisco, Week 14 vs. Pittsburgh and Week 16 at New England are not great matchups for Allen and Diggs. A lot can change from now until then, but that’s something to consider on draft day.

Other candidates: DeAndre Hopkins, T.Y. Hilton, Will Fuller