Fantasy football: Best ball tournament strategy

Imagine you’re a fish. No, not that kind of fish, that would be too easy. Imagine you’re an actual fish that swims. When you’re young, you’re given a small tank to swim in and as you get bigger and bigger, you’re given bigger and bigger tanks. There’s one problem… no matter how big your tank gets, you keep swimming in your small original tank radius. That’s what many of you are doing in best ball drafts.
What I’m breaking down is only applicable for the big best ball tournaments, like the Best Ball Mania 2 tournament from Underdog. As I jump in and do a few to start the year, I’m noticing the same thing I’ve noticed the past few years — people are handcuffed to ADPs.

Let’s take Round 1. You’re pick 5 and the players you’re considering are the four taken ahead of you and another four who are traditionally first-rounders. That all makes sense. Success rate for those first-rounders is relatively high, and you should have a small range to pick from or small tank to swim in if you will.

Let’s fast forward to Round 8. You have your sweethearts and targets for Round 8, but let’s be honest, how many players are you considering? Five, maybe 10? Why are you still swimming in a small tank? I hate to diss your eighth-round sweethearts, but their likelihood of success is small. Are they more likely to succeed than your traditional 10th-rounders? Maybe, but it’s minuscule at best. We all know injuries happen, benchings happen, teams change, etc. The traditional 10th-rounders might end up being a gold mine for fantasy production, and you’re only allowing yourself one pick from that range? Allow yourself to stretch beyond the confines of Round 8 ADPs and “reach” for some traditionally later players. In Round 9, do it again! By doing so, you might end up avoiding the pitfalls of Round 8/9 and loading up on the gold in Round 10. Again, the difference in success rate in those rounds is very small. Who are some players to consider “reaching” on? Check out who our Eliot Crist identified as some of his favorite best ball upside plays.

In full transparency, I’m not a big best ball player, but I know what it takes to stand out and win a large GPP, which is essentially what we’re talking about here. This is the type of strategy you need to apply. If you don’t and you handcuff yourself to ADPs, you’ll have a very traditional build, expose yourself to the pitfalls of many other lineups, and have a tough time standing out. As you get to later and later rounds, your range of players should get bigger and bigger. Later rounds should be focused on roster construction and strategy anyways. Eliot does a great job breaking some of that strategy as well. Be different and ignore those saying you’re reaching. There is no such thing in a big tournament like this.

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