Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
(All summer, Adam Pfeifer will be putting the tightest fantasy football picks under the microscope in our ADP Decisions series.)
Making tough decisions in fantasy football can be, well, tough. (I’m such a wordsmith, aren’t I?) I have plenty of experience making tough choices. It used to take me 30-40 minutes to choose which toy I wanted from the toy store. (And no, contrary to the jokes around FTN Slack, this was not recently.)
But in fantasy football drafts, you only have a minute or so in normal leagues to make your selection. And there are plenty of players ranked very, very closely to each other. So we’re going to try to relieve that headache by breaking down players who are being drafted right next to each other.
That starts today with two wideouts I have back-to-back in my rankings: Keenan Allen and Michael Thomas.
Here we go.
The case for Keenan Allen
You want targets? Look no further than Allen.
The veteran wideout saw 147 targets in 2020, as then-rookie quarterback Justin Herbert had tunnel vision for Allen. In fact, per FTN’s new stats, Allen was the first read 29% of the time last season, which was the fourth-highest mark among all pass-catchers. Meanwhile, his 110 first read targets were the third-most in the NFL, which means that Allen was the first read on a whopping 75% of his targets over the course of the season. That is absurd volume and certainty, as Allen saw double-digit targets in 10 of the 11 full games he played alongside Herbert last year.
Allen finished with a target share hovering around the 26% mark, while his 100 receptions were fifth in football, despite missing two games and playing less than 40% of the snaps in two other contests. Of course, some are worried about Allen’s efficiency. His mark of 9.9 yards per reception was easily the lowest of his entire career, while his 6.7 yards per target was the fifth-lowest mark among all wide receivers with at least 40 receptions on the season. Allen also only posted an average depth of target of 7.03 yards, which ranked eighth-worst among qualified wide receivers. While Allen finished with under 1,000 yards, he did find the end zone eight times, his most touchdowns since his rookie season and tying a career-high. He’s been an underwhelming touchdown-scorer, but with Hunter Henry gone, the Chargers really don’t have many viable red-zone targets on their roster right now. Allen had a healthy 10 end-zone targets last year, and I wouldn’t be shocked if he saw a similar number in 2021, which could help make up for a lower yardage total. With an improved offensive line and an aggressive quarterback under center, we could see the Chargers throw deep more often, which may not be where Allen is involved. As a rookie, 37.7% of Herbert’s passes were to the short right, which was the highest mark among all qualified passers. Conversely, Allen posted a 39.5% mark of passes of the short-right variety, a top-seven rate among wideouts. A lot of this might have had to do with Herbert stepping in as a rookie and looking to his sure-handed slot receiver who creates a ton of separation. With a full season under his belt, don’t be surprised if Herbert goes through his progressions more in year two.
Of course, either way, Allen is the top pass-catcher in an ascending passing offense that is also very concentrated. The PPR floor should be massive and he’s truly a can’t-miss selection in the third round of drafts.
The case for Michael Thomas
Thomas is coming off a bit of a lost season. He played just seven regular-season games as he dealt with an ankle sprain but when Thomas was on the field, he was once again good. Sure, he wasn’t at the 2019 level, but Thomas provided a safe floor, hauling in at least five passes for 50 yards in all but two games. Of course, he didn’t find the end zone until the Saints playoff game, but after such a disappointing season, Thomas has become a value in fantasy drafts.
In many ways, Thomas is actually very similar to Allen. Like Allen, he plays in a concentrated offense that also features an elite pass-catching running back. The difference, however, is that the Chargers don’t have question marks at the quarterback position. Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill are likely both going to take snaps under center over the course of the season. While some prefer Winston to start for Thomas’ value, I’m here to tell you that it wouldn’t be the end of the world if Hill was under center. Thomas had a 30% target share when Hill was at quarterback, and Hill quietly finished third among qualified passers with a 72.4% adjusted completion percentage on intermediate throws. Thomas still saw around a 27% target share on the year and could easily lead the NFL in that department this season, as the Saints really lack playmakers at wide receiver. And that will be the case regardless of who is under center, as Winston is aggressive and will force the ball to his playmakers, while Hill didn’t go through his progressions when under center, locking onto Thomas. Among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks in 2020, Hill ranked 10th in first read percentage (63%).
Hill locking onto Thomas is obviously great and is actually one of the reasons I am a tad worried about Alvin Kamara. However, Hill being the quarterback could hurt the touchdown upside of both Kamara and Thomas, as he finished the year with nine carries from inside the 5-yard line (for reference, that’s the same number as Josh Allen and D’Andre Swift). He also was responsible for just over 33% of New Orleans carries from that area of the field. We know Sean Payton will draw up designed runs for Hill in close, which could hurt the overall touchdown upside of the Saints pass-catchers. Though I would personally guarantee that Thomas catches more touchdowns than he did last season. (What a bold take, Adam.)
The verdict: Keenan Allen
As it stands, Allen and Thomas are going back-to-back in most drafts, making it the ultimate decision. And I’ve personally struggled with this in many drafts already this summer. However, if choosing between the two, Allen gets the edge for me, mainly because there are fewer question marks with the offense and quarterback situation in Los Angeles. Both are top-seven wide receivers for me and terrific selections in the third round, but with Drew Brees retired, I just feel like the Saints offense could be on the decline, while Herbert and the Chargers are ascending.
