Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
(All summer, Adam Pfeifer will be putting the tightest fantasy football picks under the microscope in our ADP Decisions series.)
We continue our ADP series with a battle of two elite running back talents that honestly project very similarly for fantasy football in 2021.
Nick Chubb and Jonathan Taylor are true workhorse running backs who have the talent and situation to legitimately lead the NFL in rushing. Taylor is coming off fantasy draft boards in the middle of the first round, while Chubb is being selected in the early second round, which means you won’t be able to add both players to your fantasy roster. So with that being said, which tailback do I prefer this upcoming season?
The case for Jonathan Taylor
After the Colts traded up to select Taylor in the second round of last year’s draft, the Wisconsin product was set to split work with Marlon Mack. However, the veteran suffered a torn Achilles in Week 1, thrusting Taylor into a much larger role right out of the gate. In Week 2 as the starter, Taylor exploded for 101 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries, but the Colts didn’t use him as a featured back again until Week 11. And through Weeks 1-10, Taylor was just the RB18 in fantasy football, averaging just 12.5 carries per game. He struggled with ball security at times and through Weeks 8-10, Taylor carried the football just 24 total times. However, the game slowed down for the rookie after that, as he was the RB3 in fantasy through Weeks 11-17 despite missing a game during that stretch. And during that same span, Taylor also ranked second in rushing yards (741), sixth in yards after contact per attempt (3.75), third in avoided tackles (33) and first in fantasy points per snap (0.59). Once the game slowed down for the rookie, Taylor showed immense upside. He saw the running lanes a lot easier and made plays once he got to the second level.
Per FTN’s premium stats, Taylor’s 35 rushes of 10 yards or more were the third-most in the NFL last year. He also finished sixth in the league in trucking yards, which are rushing yards gained with one or more tacklers grasping onto the ball carrier. Taylor is going to create huge plays in the running game, as he also posted the ninth-highest explosive run rate among running backs with at least 75 carries last year (33.7%).
While both running backs lack elite pass-catching upside, Taylor certainly has a higher ceiling in that department. During his rookie campaign, Taylor hauled in 36 balls for 299 yards and a score, and it was honestly the most impressive aspect of his game. Coming out of Wisconsin, perhaps Taylor’s only red flag was his pass-catching ability. However, after watching him during his first season in the NFL, you’d struggle to believe it. Among running backs with at least 30 targets last year, Taylor finished second in catch rate (87%), while his 7.29 yards per target was also good enough for second-best at the position. And after struggling with drops in college, Taylor dropped just one pass during his rookie season, and he wasn’t just catching dump-offs, as he was 10th among all qualified running backs in yards per route run (1.47). The Colts offense is going to look a bit different in 2021, as Philip Rivers is gone, a quarterback who has had a tendency to throw to his running backs. And in his lone season in Indianapolis, 97 of his 544 pass attempts (17.8%) were behind the line of scrimmage, the third-most in football. We’ll see what Carson Wentz’s tendencies are, as the Colts still have an outstanding pass-catching back on the roster in Nyheim Hines.
The case for Nick Chubb
Is there a better pure runner in the NFL than Chubb?
For his career, Chubb is averaging 5.23 yards per carry and has been arguably the most efficient running back in football since entering the league. He’s rushed for at least 100 yards in 17 of his 44 career regular season games (38%) and that efficiency continued in 2021, as Chubb finished second among all rushers in fantasy points per snap (0.51) while averaging 89 rushing yards per game and still eclipsing 1,000 yards in just 12 games. An MCL injury cost him four games but in the full games he played in, Chubb was a top-five fantasy running back despite offering very little as a pass-catcher. Outside of maybe Baltimore, the Cleveland Browns have the most unstoppable rushing attack due to Chubb’s brilliance and a dominant offensive line in front of him.
In 2020, Chubb averaged 2.9 yards before contact per rush, good for the sixth-highest rate among all qualified running backs. Cleveland has undoubtedly the best offensive line in the NFL, especially after Wyatt Teller emerged into one of the best run-blocking guards in all of football. He was PFF’s top-graded run-blocking guard and per FTN’s premium stats, Chubb averaged a solid 4.16 yards per carry on runs to the right guard last year, a top-seven number among all rushers. 22% of Chubb’s rushing plays went in that direction, good for the fourth-highest rate in the league. That is a clear strength of this team but what happens if Teller misses time or the Browns aren’t as effective running the ball in that direction? Well, I’m sure they’ll be fine, as Cleveland surrounds Teller on the offensive line with sophomore Jedrick Wills, Joel Bitonio, J.C. Tretter and Jack Conklin.
And while Chubb is fortunate to run behind an elite run-blocking unit, we know this is a running back who can make plays independent of what is being blocked. No one breaks off long runs like Chubb, who posted an explosive run rate of over 40% last year (third-highest). And again, despite missing four games, Chubb’s 15 explosive runs, which are runs of 15 yards or more, were tied for the second-most in the league. And who was he tied with? Yep, you guessed it. Jonathan Taylor.
Chubb also led the NFL in that department back in 2019, as he uses a combination of vision, speed and tackle-breaking ability. In fact, Chubb forced 61 missed tackles on the ground, good for the third-most in football, while his 4.06 yards after contact per attempt led all running backs with at least 50 carries last season. He’s tremendous and while the Browns do have a second outstanding running back in Kareem Hunt, Chubb is still the clear starter in this backfield while Cleveland runs the ball enough for Hunt to still get his 10-12 touches per game. But Chubb is still elite fantasy running back. And sure, Chubb will be lucky to haul in 40 passes in this offense. But if he does reach that mark, he’s essentially a lock to finish as a top-five fantasy running back. And it is worth noting that during the final six games of the season, Hunt ran 102 pass routes to Chubb’s 100.
The verdict: Nick Chubb
Taylor and Chubb are two of the best young running backs in the game and on a per-touch basis, you likely won’t find many more productive players. And while consensus suggests that Taylor is the better bet, I am definitely siding with Chubb in standard formats. PPR leagues could be a different discussion but although Taylor was so impressive as a pass-catcher last year, it isn’t as if he is going to see significantly more targets than Chubb. If things break right for both players, Taylor likely has a higher pass-catching ceiling than Chubb but like Hunt in Cleveland, Hines also has a role in Indianapolis. So as a result, I’m leaning toward Chubb and that absurd offensive line in Cleveland, though I will say that this is the toughest decision I’ve had to make yet.
