Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Every year, some follically challenged scribe lists his favorite underpriced names he believes are destined to torch the competition. Some readers inevitably categorize them as “sleepers,” an overused, misrepresented and poorly defined blanket term in the virtual game. No, consider these fiery individuals “undervalued,” players outside of common starting requirements in 12-team leagues (e.g. TE1-TE12) who pack plenty of bang for the buck. Thursday’s ‘Flames’ cover TEs.
Noah Fant, Denver Broncos
(ADP: TE14, 126.0)
Overly hoppy IPAs, gummies with a hypnotic twist, clean mountain air and Fant devouring yards after the catch — these were Denver calling cards for much of last fall.
Last year as a rookie, Fant delivered on his big-play promise. His surface numbers didn’t blow minds and alter fantasy league power divisions. On 59 targets — 13.9% of the team’s share — he hauled in 40 receptions for 562 yards and three touchdowns, placing him at TE15 in total 0.5 PPR output. No, it was his underlying data that stirred the blood and offered a hint of his full potential. Nearly 59% of his yards came after the catch. His results 8.3 YAC per reception trailed only A.J. Brown and Deebo Samuel among tight ends and wide receivers. As exhibited routinely at Iowa, Fant’s after-catch churn and power were as advertised.
Admittedly comfortable in Pat Schurmur’s reconstructed offense and aiming for consistency, Fant is on the precipice of a breakout. With Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler to contend for touches, Fant’s established rapport built with Drew Lock over five games last season should pay dividends. The QB’s feel for the system may take some time, but there’s plenty to like about the tight end’s upside. Expect a noticeable step forward in production nearing a 55-675-5 line.
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Jace Sternberger, Green Bay Packers
(TE24, 180.3)
If your franchise, barren at wide receiver outside of Devante Adams, inexplicably refused to address the position in the offseason, you, too, would exhibit a sullen exterior. Aaron Rodgers is understandably ticked. And there probably aren’t enough discount double checks to make the man happy.
Sternberger, however, could turn frowns upside down. With washed up Jimmy Graham now catching sporadic wobbly passes in Chicago ($9 million guaranteed, Ryan Pace, really?!), the sophomore tight end is in a smash spot to greatly outperform his ADP.
He’s unrefined, but during the offseason the organization talked up his athletic skills and improved route running. Beat writers have reiterated that message early on in training camp saying his versatility will be maximized. As they’ve remarked, he could be the best tight end the franchise has trotted out since Jermichael Finley. Without a proven second target on roster, Sternberger will have every opportunity to showcase his wares.
Jason Witten, rabbit-out-of-the-head, ancient Jason Witten, finished TE12 in 0.5 PPR leagues last season with a 63-529-4 line. Gain Rodgers’ trust out of the gate Week 1 at Minnesota and Sternberger cruises into the TE1 class.
Chris Herndon, New York Jets
(TE22, 165.0)
A distinguished member of this year’s All-ManCrush Team, Herndon is the ultimate #TeamHuevos selection in the double-digit rounds. He could be the next Darren Waller, an overlooked tight end who could lead thrifty shoppers to end-season riches.
The Athletic reported in mid-May the Jets are itching to get Herndon back on the field. Adam Gase and Co. have faith in the raw skill. Remember in his rookie campaign two seasons ago he strung together a respectable 39-502-4 line on just 12.1% of the team’s target share. That season he ranked top-10 in average depth of target, yards per catch and fantasy points per target among tight ends.
For a developing quarterback off a season in which he struggled mightily inside the red zone (QB32 in red-zone completion percentage), Herndon presents an ideal big-bodied remedy. Sam Darnold and the plus-sized weapon should click instantly. Gase’s play-calling and offensive pace are drags, but at the TE’s ADP (TE21, 158.3), he’s a clearance rack buy with mammoth profit potential. Hold your breath and draft with confidence.
Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans
(TE16, 131.1)
In a Grand Canyon-deep TE class — quite possibly the most statistically rich we’ve ever seen — “Juggernaut” Jonnu is a mid-tiered target who is likely to leave investors in the black. The Titans coaching staff has repeatedly praised him this offseason, talking up his athleticism, route expansion and overall improvements. On the surface, he has all the makings of a breakthrough 2020. Straight from the horse’s mouth, he’s up to the challenge and ready to fill the shoes of the departed Delanie Walker.
Drilling down, Smith was spectacular in limited doses last season. Ignore his surface 35-439-3 line and unadmirable 5.2-yard average depth of target. He caught 79.5% of his intended looks and compiled the second most YAC per reception (8.06) on the year.
Tennessee, largely conservative on offense, passed the pill at a 50.2% clip last season. With Brown and Corey Davis on roster, can Jonnu receive enough looks to vault into the TE top-12? If his 11.1% target share climbs into the 16-18% range, it’s bankable. For now, he’s affordable, but the hype could quickly accelerate.
