Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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And just like that, Leonard Fournette is now on the open market. The implications for fantasy football and the fallout from the Jacksonville Jaguars moving on from the fourth overall pick in the 2017 draft could be massive. After attempting to find a taker for Fournette's services all offseason, the Jaguars have now washed their hands of their former first-round pick.
In 2019, Fournette was the RB9 in PPR fantasy points per game. He did so on the strength of a massive workload finishing third in total touches (341), fourth in targets (100) and sixth in weighted opportunity (0.28). With Fournette gone, where does this leave the backfield currently? And where might Fournette find a home now? Let's find out.
The Jaguars depth chart
Chris Thompson
Jay Gruden’s favorite son landing in Jacksonville is no coincidence. Last season before Gruden was canned in Washington, Thompson was an integral part of the offense. In Weeks 1-5, Thompson was averaging nine touches per game with a 20% target share. Over that span, Washington was seventh in the NFL in target share to the running back position (26.3%). Thompson, over those five games, was the RB27 in PPR fantasy points per game. Thompson was playing 50-64.9% of the snaps in the Washington backfield. While Thompson won’t lead this team in rushing attempts, he could be the best fantasy option in this backfield. Regardless of whichever early-down complement that slides in alongside him, his role is written in stone.
Ryquell Armstead/Devine Ozigbo
Last season in Week 17, Fournette missed the game related to a neck strain. Armstead and Ozigbo split the work in the backfield. Armstead led the way with 15 touches while leading the team in targets (9). Armstead finished as the RB14 in PPR that week. Armstead’s 94th percentile speed score and 72nd percentile college dominator give him the on-paper look of a player with the juice to stake a claim for the early-down role. In Week 17, Ozigbo finished the game with 12 touches and 50 total yards. Ozigbo’s final line wasn’t as flashy as Armstead’s, but beneath the box score surface, Ozigbo flashed. Ozigbo finished with more evaded tackles (5 vs. 4), and red zone carries (3 vs. 2) than Armstead. Ozigbo has been drawing praise from coaches and beat reporters in camp so far, and can’t be ruled out for a shot at the early-down job alongside Thompson.
(More: Brad Evans explains why Ozigbo is currently the prize of the Jacksonville backfield.)
James Robinson/Nathan Cottrell
Robinson, signed as a UDFA, was a workhorse in his final two seasons at Illinois State. He racked up 380 touches in his final year and was the engine of his small-school offense finishing with a 98th percentile college dominator. Robinson has proven that he can handle a heavy workload, but his athletic measurables don’t jump off the page with a 4.64-second 40 times and a 69th percentile agility score.
Cottrell lands in Jacksonville with his role primarily coming on special teams. Cottrell amassed only 88 touches out of the backfield in his four years at Georgia Tech. He was, however, a standout as a gunner on punt and kickoff coverage.
Other possible free agent signings/trade targets
Signing: Devonta Freeman
Much like it did during the Bears’ backfield fallout last week, Freeman’s name will come up amongst the fantasy industry as the low-hanging free agent fruit. With Freeman’s rumored contract demands and veteran battered body, this is probably an unlikely fit. Freeman could be nearing the end of his NFL tenure after last season’s 55th finish in yards created per touch. A slim chance we see Freeman landing in Florida.
Trade: Giovani Bernard
Bernard was drafted in the second round during Gruden’s final year in Cincinnati. Bernard’s familiarity and skill set could make this happen. Joe Mixon’s looming contract situation and migraine issues could squash this as well.
Possible landing spots for Fournette
So with the onus placed on the Jaguars’ depth chart, the question also remains where does Leonard Fournette land?
Chicago Bears
With David Montgomery banged up and possibly missing a handful of games to begin the season, Fournette makes some sense here. The Bears already have a similar pass-catching complement in Tarik Cohen. Former Jaguars offensive coordinator John DeFilippo’s position as quarterback’s coach could go a long way toward making this happen.
New England Patriots
With Sony Michel’s ongoing health issues and Damien Harris looking like just another guy at times in camp, Fournette wouldn’t be the first veteran reclamation project the Patriots have undertaken. From LeGarrette Blount to Corey Dillon, this wouldn’t be the most 2020 thing to happen.
