Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
To ring in the final weekend for fantasy football drafts, the news cycle started humming Friday, with the Washington Football Team announced they are releasing 35-year-old Adrian Peterson.
The backfield is now left with Antonio Gibson, Peyton Barber, Bryce Love and J.D. McKissic filling out the depth chart. During training camp, the drumbeat has stayed constant on Gibson and the team’s admiration for him. In saying that, don’t rule out Peyton Barber or Bryce Love here. At first glance, Riverboat Ron looks like he’s turning back the hands of time with the backfield and seeking to revisit 2017.
Keep in mind: Have been saying they like what Barber can do in the run AND pass game. But it's not just him. It's the other RBs. They want element of surprise/versatility. Needed w/holes elsewhere at skill spots. AP still runs hard; practiced hard. But if stayed, reduced role.
— John Keim (@john_keim) September 4, 2020
There are many parallels to draw here regarding how this backfield can stack up this year for all of the Christian McCaffrey comparisons and talk for Gibson looking back to his rookie season. In 2017, Jonathan Stewart was the team’s early-down bruiser as he saw 58.2% of the team’s rushing attempts (198 rushing attempts). However, Stewart was a non-factor in the passing game with a measly 3% target share (15 targets). Stewart was the RB50 in PPR fantasy points per game.
McCaffrey was a fantasy football superstar in his rookie season, finishing as the RB13 in PPR fantasy points per game. McCaffrey only handled 34.4% (117 rushing attempts) of the team’s rushing attempts while running for an inefficient 3.7 yards per carry. McCaffrey was a dominant force in the passing game, though with a 23% target share (113 targets). Gibson’s inexperience in pass protection could matter very little this year. McCaffrey, in his rookie season, was only asked to pass protect on 50 snaps. McCaffrey was also an atrocious pass protector in his rookie season, allowing a quarterback pressure on 20% of his protection reps, but it didn’t limit his snaps or role one bit. Gibson will be given every opportunity to seize the McCaffrey role in this offense with McKissic waiting in the wings as a safety net. With Barber or Love taking over as the Stewart-esque complement on early downs.
New offensive coordinator Scott Turner also plays a role in these moves as he transforms this offense. Last year in his four-game stint at the controls in Carolina, Turner directed an offense that was seventh in plays per game (70.7) and first in passing rate (68%). Washington is going to see a huge uptick in pace and passing volume this year. While also accounting for the fact that yes, McCaffrey was the back, during Turner’s brief stint last year, the team ranked third in target share to the running back position (28.8%). Under Rivera and Turner this year, the wheels are up on Gibson’s breakout season. Target him aggressively in drafts this weekend while also keeping Barber and Love in the back of your mind in those later rounds.
