Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each week, Brad Evans and Jeff Ratcliffe step into the octagon to exchange blows over some of the biggest draft-day dilemmas this fantasy football season. Today's Fantasy Faceoff topic: Alvin Kamara or Ezekiel Elliott? … Ready. Set. FIGHT!
In favor of Alvin Kamara (Brad Evans)
After physical limitations haunted Kamara like the many apparitions wandering the French Quarter in 2019, the resurrected RB known for his balance-ball acts is bound to scare the opposition in a rebound campaign.
As Saints RBs coach Joel Thomas recently unveiled, Kamara not only played through a high-ankle sprain for a large chunk of last season, he also battled through knee and back setbacks. Considering the hindrances, he still managed to compile 1,330 total yards on 66.0% of the opportunity share. Think about that for a moment.
Under the microscope, Kamara, despite the restrictions, continued to master the science of advanced analytics. His 3.18 yards after contact per attempt and 22.2 missed tackle percentage ranked inside the RB top-15. His contortionist moves, spatial awareness and ability to instantly digest defender lunges explain why he’s one of the slipperiest rushers in the league, physically limited or not.
New Orleans remains a heavenly environment for RBs, especially ones with Kamara’s multidimensional skill set. The Saints offensive line, expected to be one of the league’s elite run-blocking units this fall, ranked No. 1 in fewest adjusted line yards allowed in ‘19. Additionally, thanks to the unstoppable Drew Brees-to-Michael Thomas connection, Kamara encountered eight or more men in the box just 16.3% of the time according to NFL NextGen Stats. Light fronts equal numerous exploitable opportunities.
This scribe isn’t some Cowboys hater. Zeke is a tremendous back who is sure to be a focal point, but Mike McCarthy’s RBBC history implies Tony Pollard could take on a larger than advertised role. A healthy Kamara is more attractive. The rusher returns to his 2018 output (1,592 combined yds, 18 total TDs) on close to double the red-zone looks (26) logged last year.
Fly the Fleur de Lis!
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In favor of Ezekiel Elliott (Jeff Ratcliffe)
While he may not possess the highest ceiling among running backs, a fair argument could be made for Elliott having the highest floor at the position. Over the last three seasons, Elliott has cracked the top 10 in 51% of his games and has just three weekly finishes outside of the top 24. Think about that.
He’s as consistent as they come on a week-to-week basis. Over the last three seasons, he’s had average weekly finishes of 11.8, 11.8 and 12.9. To sustain weekly RB1 production of that extended period of time is extremely difficult and speaks to how good of a fantasy asset he’s been in his pro career.
While he’s dominated carries over his entire career, it’s Elliott’s role in the passing game that is perhaps the most intriguing aspect for fantasy purposes. The Cowboys has expanded over the last two seasons with a combined 131 catches. To be fair, the Cowboys do have a lot of mouths to feed in the passing game, especially after they drafted CeeDee Lamb, but Elliott faces little competition for targets in the Dallas backfield. Sure, Tony Pollard is there, but the second-year man is more of a backup than a direct threat to Elliott.
Elliott is among the favorites to lead the league in carries. He currently projects for 285 carries in my model, which is second behind only Derrick Henry. With that sort of volume in a high-powered offense, you get a lot of bang for your buck here. But perhaps the biggest factor in Elliott’s favor is his floor. The proof is in the pudding, Elliott has done nothing but deliver consistent fantasy output at a high level over the course of his career. He’s one of the safest players on the board and is the clear choice here.
