Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Each week, two of our big names step into the octagon to exchange blows over some of the biggest draft-day dilemmas this fantasy football season. Today's Fantasy Faceoff topic: Brad Evans and Eliot Crist debate — Derrick Henry or Clyde Edwards-Helaire? … Ready. Set. FIGHT!
In favor of Derrick Henry (Brad Evans)
Republicans vs. Democrats. Godzilla vs. Mothra. Everyone vs. the Astros. In the museum of famous battles, floor vs. ceiling also deserves a rightful place. This argument serves as a prime example.
Alongside heavyweights Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott, there isn’t another running back with a higher floor than Tennessee’s Football Frankenstein. The monstrous back, who stiff arms, usually Jaguars, tacklers into oblivion, is the injection system that jumps the engine in Arthur Smith’s run-often offense.
Though underutilized as a pass catcher, Henry is bruising between the tackles and surprisingly agile in the open field, a perfectly crafted rusher operating behind a top-half offensive line. Just glance at his advanced analytics. Last year, he ranked RB2 in YAC per attempt, No. 9 in yards created per touch and forced a missed tackle on 19.6% of his attempts. Given the Titans’ team-wide continuity, he should again grip the rock at least 18-20 times per game. Due to his remarkable efficiency 1,400 yards with double-digit TDs is an inevitable outcome. Keep in mind Tennessee has the fifth-easiest projected schedule for fantasy running backs.
Once Damien Williams stepped aside, projections for CEH understandably rocketed into the stratosphere. He’s ultra-versatile and the presumed starter in the league’s most explosive offense who warrants strong consideration in Round 1 of fantasy drafts. Still, he’s unproven. If you’re all about driving at high speeds without a seatbelt, chase the ceiling. We safety-first folks, meanwhile, will err on the side of caution and invest in the surer thing.
(Want in on everything FTN has to offer? Sign up now!)
In favor of Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Eliot Crist)
Damien Williams opted out of the 2020 season and the fantasy world was set ablaze. Everyone's competing for who can be the highest on the stud rookie. Me, I just took him fifth overall in a superflex league in the Flex Sirius XM league, and I feel great about doing it.
On my fantasy team, I am looking for workhorse backs, heavily involved in the passing game, on explosive offenses, with touchdown equity in their offense. And break out your checkbooks, because CEH checks all those boxes. The rookie is the first back in 22 years to be drafted in the first round under Andy Reid, after Patrick Mahomes was said to have hand-picked the back who has more catches than any other SEC running back in over 20 years.
When asked about CEH’s skill set, Reid said he is Brian Westbrook, “but better.” When Westbrook played under Reid, he had four seasons with more than 87 targets and that was in a much less pass-happy league with lower weekly play volume. Now Reid has Mahomes and the unquestioned top passing offense in football. The Chiefs offense has been so friendly to running backs that in games Williams played at least 60% of the snaps, he averaged over 25 DraftKings points per game. Only two backs did that all of last year — meaning this is rarefied air — and CEH steps right into this role with his biggest competition coming from sixth-round JAGs.
The biggest “knock” on Edwards-Helaire is that he may struggle in pass protection, but the Chiefs use their backs in the passing game and are bottom-five in frequency in keeping them in pass protection. A pass game specialist, with excellent vision and contact balance, thrown into a workhorse role, on the best offense in football. Yeah, I want as much of that as I can get.
